Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts

Program Chair: Patrick A. Harr , NSF

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Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Registration Continues Through January 9
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Plenary Session
13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today; the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Sixth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Special Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; the 10th Conference on Space Weather; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; the Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 11th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the Robert A. Duce Symposium; the Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health )
8:30 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Dr. Louis Uccellini and Co-Chairs Troy Kimmel/Ken Carey will introduce Texas and Local Representatives)
8:35 AM
Warm Welcome to Austin!

8:45 AM
Introduction of Guest Speakers (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

8:50 AM
"Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific Progress and Future Opportunities" Dr. Alan Thorpe, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
9:10 AM
"River/Rainfall Forecast Fusion Cells" Major General Michael Walsh, US Army Corps of Engineers
9:30 AM
"Cloudy with the Chance of Insight" Dr. Tony Hey, Microsoft Research
9:50 AM
"Where Citizens are Looking" Dr. Nigel Snoad, Google Crisis Response
10:10 AM
Audience Question and Answer (moderated by Dr. William (Bill) Hooke)
10:25 AM
Closing Remarks (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 1
Intraseasonal and Regional Factors
Location: Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts
Chair: Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL
8:45 AM
1.2A
Influence of SAL on Tropical Cyclogenesis: Comparative Studies of Helene (2006) and Julia (2010)
Diana C. Centeno, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao
Manuscript (2.3 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

9:00 AM
1.3
Central American Gyres, Tropical Cyclones, and Heavy Eastern U.S. Rainfall
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin, P. P. Papin, and R. D. Torn
9:15 AM
1.4
Large-Scale Influences on the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Karl (2010)
Kyle S. Griffin, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and L. F. Bosart
9:30 AM
1.5
A Numerical Weather Prediction-Based Infrastructure for Tropical Meteorology Research and Operations in Brunei
Rashmi Mittal, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, DL, India; and V. Saxena, T. George, L. A. Treinish, A. P. Praino, J. Cipriani, L. Villa Real, U. Mello, L. Dagar, A. G. Naim, H. Hassan, and S. A. Husain

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
Poster Session: The Next Level of Prediction in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts and Observing Strategies, Platforms, and Impacts on Analysis and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Waves, and Tropical Rainfall
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts
Chair: Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
467
A new method for vortex relocation within a balanced flow field
Feng Gao, Panasonic Avionics Corporation, Morrisville, NC; and P. Childs, X. Y. Huang, and N. A. Jacobs

469
Use of Hyperspectral Infrared Analysis Products in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Near-term Trending
Elise M. Garms, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, Y. Plokhenko, H. Revercomb, and S. Ackerman

Poster 473 has been moved. New paper number 1.2A

Poster 474 has been moved. New paper number TJ19.2A

475
476
Intraseasonal Forecasting of Asian Summer Monsoon, MJO, and Tropical Cyclones
Joshua Xiouhua Fu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang, W. Wang, J. Y. Lee, S. Weaver, and P. C. Hsu

Handout (2.7 MB)

477
The Application of COCONet to Determine Water Vapor Variability in the Caribbean
John J. Braun, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Van Hove

Handout (14.6 MB)

478
A Climatology of Central American Gyres
Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin, L. F. Bosart, and R. D. Torn

Handout (14.1 MB)

479
Role of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes from the Ocean in the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008)
Vanessa Almanza, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and R. A. Anthes, Y. H. Kuo, S. Y. Chen, C. J. Wang, W. S. Schreiner, and D. C. Hunt

480
The Balanced Wind, Mass and Potential Vorticity Structure of Warm-Ring Tropical Cyclones
Anthony J. Cosio, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and W. H. Schubert and C. J. Slocum

481
Short and extended range probabilistic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts based on a climatology of global numerical model output
Daniel J. Halperin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Cossuth, H. E. Fuelberg, and R. E. Hart

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 19
Historical Impacts on Predictions and the Decision-Making Process in Tropical Meteorology
Location: Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; and the 11th History Symposium )
Chair: Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV/Former National Hurricane Center Director, Miami, FL
11:15 AM
TJ19.2A
20 Years of the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center at MacDill Air Force Base
Jack Parrish, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, MacDill AFB, FL; and A. B. Damiano and P. Flaherty
11:30 AM
TJ19.3
The History of Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing Via Satellite Microwave Imagers
Thomas F. Lee, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, F. J. Turk, and J. Hawkins
11:45 AM
TJ19.4

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 25
Observing Strategies, Platforms, and Impacts on Analysis and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Waves, and Tropical Rainfall Part I
Location: Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; and the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Unviersity of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
1:30 PM
TJ25.1A
Initial Condition Sensitivity and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Development and Intensification
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke, and C. A. Reynolds
1:45 PM
TJ25.2
Impact of Ocean Observations on Hurricane Irene Intensity Forecasts
Greg Seroka, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and S. Glenn, O. Schofield, J. Kohut, H. Roarty, J. Kerfoot, L. Bowers, M. Crowley, L. Palamara, and R. Dunk
2:30 PM
TJ25.5
Creating a consistent climatology of tropical cyclone structure as observed by satellite microwave sensors
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Yang, K. Richardson, M. Surratt, J. Solbrig, and J. Hawkins
2:45 PM
TJ25.6
Adopting Model Uncertainties for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
Rosimar Rios-Berrios, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and T. Vukicevic

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 2
Synoptic-Scale and Sub-Synoptic Scale Factors
Location: Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC, Miami, FL
3:30 PM
2.1
An Ocean-Based Potential Intensity Index for Tropical Cyclones
I. I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and P. Black, J. F. Price, C. Y. Yang, S. S. Chen, N. H. Chi, P. A. Harr, M. Lien, E. D'Asaro, and C. C. Wu
3:45 PM
2.2
Recent Advancements in the Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Program
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, R. Berg, E. Gibney, and R. D. Knabb
4:15 PM
2.4
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Recent accomplishments
Robert L. Gall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, F. D. Marks Jr., and E. Rappaport
4:30 PM
2.5
Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Basin
Alicia M. Bentley, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart
4:45 PM
2.6
Using NOAA's Second-Generation GFS Ensemble Reforecast Dataset to Generate Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, M. Fiorino, and J. S. Whitaker
5:00 PM
2.7

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Observations and observing strategies in tropical cyclones
Location: Room 9B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts )
Chair: Heather Archambault, NPS, Monterey, CA
8:30 AM
J4.1
Observations of C-band brightness temperatures and ocean surface wind speed and rain rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) during GRIP and HS3
Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. W. James, J. B. Roberts, W. L. Jones, S. Biswas, C. S. Ruf, E. Uhlhorn, R. Atlas, P. G. Black, and C. M. Albers
8:45 AM
J4.2
9:15 AM
J4.4
Verifying Regional Tropical Cyclone Model Forecasts using Synthetic Satellite Imagery
David A. Zelinsky, Systems Research Group, Inc., Colorado Springs, CO, and National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL
9:30 AM
J4.5
9:45 AM
J4.6
Adaptive sampling with unmanned aircraft in Rankine vortices
Doug Koch, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. DeVries, D. Paley, and S. J. Majumdar

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 36
Observing Strategies, Platforms, and Impacts on Analysis and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Waves, and Tropical Rainfall Part II
Location: Room 9C (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts )
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL
10:30 AM
TJ36.1
11:00 AM
TJ36.3
The DOTSTAR Observations in Improving Tropical Cyclones Forecast using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation
Baoguo Xie, IBM Research, Beijing, China; and M. Zhang, H. Wang, W. Yin, and J. Dong

12:00 PM
Tropical Cyclone Intrinsic Variability and Predictability by Greg Hakim
12:15 PM
Jun Li Presentation

Thursday, 10 January 2013

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns