A New AMS Committee on Ecological Forecasting: Opportunity to Engage and Envision a Future of Important New Forecast Services to Enhance Coastal Resiliency and Protect Human Health (Invited Presentation)

Ecosystems of the United States provide over $200 billion in added value to the U.S. economy each year. Great Lakes, coastal and marine ecosystems provide a vast array of seafood, tourism, and recreational benefits as well as protection from hazards. They are a potential source of life saving pharmaceuticals and renewable energy. Ecosystems can also directly impact human health through exposure to a variety of toxins from harmful algae and other microbes, both naturally-occurring and pollution-mediated disease organisms, and chemical contaminants, so protecting and managing ecosystems and the associated ability to predict impacts of changes in ecosystems are critical to the Nation's economy and its people's quality of life.

Ecological forecasts predict likely changes in ecosystems and ecosystem components in response to environmental drivers (e.g., climate variability, extreme events and hazards, pollution, habitat change) and resulting impacts to people, economies and communities that depend on ecosystem services. Ecological forecasts provide early warnings of the possible effects of ecosystem changes on coastal systems, natural resources, communities, economies, and human health with sufficient lead time to allow corrective actions to be taken or mitigation strategies to be developed and implemented.

NOAA, along with many external partners and collaborators, has helped pioneer the development of a variety of ecological forecasts, including harmful algal blooms, pathogens, jellyfish, brown shrimp, hypoxia, distributions of habitat and key species, sea level change, wave energy, and ocean acidification, and others in different areas of the country. Recognizing the importance of ecological forecasts as emerging services for very a wide range of potential consumers, including Federal, state, tribal and local managers of water quality, beaches, shellfish growing areas, and drinking water plant/systems; farmers and other agricultural interests; commercial and recreational fishers; seafood restaurants and markets; tourism officials and the overall hospitality industry; public health officials and physicians, and the public at large, the AMS has established a new Committee on Ecological Forecasting. This Committee sits under the AMS Board on Enterprise Strategic Topics (BEST), also known as the Board on Enterprise Strategic Planning (BEP), with a specific mission to “To develop an ecological forecasting approach which engages and expands collaboration among federal, state, academic, private, and local partners and natural resource and public health decision makers and that will enable heretofore unrealized integration of physical data with biological data.” It is anticipated that the work of the Committee could lead to multi-agency, collaborative ecological forecasts, air and water quality modeling, and economic predictions of significant interest and value to natural resource managers, public health officials, and the general public.

This presentation will introduce the AMS Ecological Forecasting Committee, identify its primary roles and responsibilities, and invite discussion concerning participation and ways to mobilize governmental, academic, and private sector assets to further prioritize, develop, systematize and deliver a suite of important ecological forecasts to serve the nation's needs.