Predictability and prediction skill of the Southern Annular Mode based on its relationship with ENSO
The predictability of seasonal SAM stems from its relationship with tropical sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO. Our study shows two distinctive periods of high predictability: the SH late autumn to winter and the SH late spring to early summer. Predictability of the SAM in austral winter stems from the association of the SAM with warm-pool (or Modoki/central Pacific) El Niņo/La Niņa, whereas predictability in austral early summer stems from the association of the SAM with cold-tongue (or eastern Pacific) ENSO. As POAMA is capable of predicting ENSO with high skill and simulating the SAM and ENSO relationship, it demonstrates good skill in predicting the phase and amplitude of seasonal anomalies of the SAM beyond a season in advance for austral early summer and late autumn.
Supplementary URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00006.1