Forecasting surface water flooding in the UK with a convection-permitting ensemble

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Tuesday, 6 January 2015: 2:45 PM
126BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Brian William Golding, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Swinbank, N. Roberts, K. Mylne, and G. Leoncini

In recent years, more than half of the damage caused by flooding in the UK has come from rainfall that has not reached a river, yet flood management is all focused on flooding from rivers. The challenge of providing actionable information about surface water flooding is huge. Our talk will focus on an evaluation of the ability of a convection-permitting ensemble to predict the intense rainfall that causes such flooding, and in particular, on a trial that was carried out during the London Olympic and Paralympic Games of 2012.