Developing Forecast Techniques for Lightning Cessation Using Radar, NLDN, and LMA Analyses

Dual Polarized (DP) radar data, along with lightning data, are examined over the Houston, TX region to develop forecast techniques for the cessation of lightning. Convective storms that dissipate over the Houston region in the summer months (June, July, and August) in 2013-2015 are analyzed. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning locations are obtained from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and total lightning (CG and inter-cloud (IC)) source data are obtained from the Houston Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). Single polarized radar signatures such as dBZ thresholds and vertically integrated ice (VII) values will be examined along with key DP radar products such as hydrometeors classified as required for charging (graupel, hail, etc.) using differential reflectivity (ZDR) thresholds. A comprehensive review of these thresholds relating to the last CG strike and source data from the LMA will provide insight to techniques to improve the forecasting of lightning cessation.