Validation of Hurricane OSSE

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) provide useful information about the potential impact that a new observing system will have on analyses and forecasts. Before an OSSE can provide this information, it is necessary to validate the system (Atlas, 1997). The OSSE should produce many comparable metrics to an Observing System Experiment (OSE) when similar existing observation types are considered. NOAA/AOML's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) has developed the capability to perform regional OSSEs to evaluate the possible effect that new observing systems will have on hurricane track and intensity forecasts. Included in this work is the ability to simulate several of hurricane aircraft reconnaissance observing systems such as flight level data, dropsondes, Tail Doppler Radar, etc. This study focuses on the use of simulated aircraft observations to validate the hurricane OSSE. Aircraft observations were simulated from a regional WRF ARW Nature Run (Nolan et al., 2013) spanning 13 days, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclone. The results of an OSSE assimilating these observations are compared to the results of an OSE performed on Hurricane Earl.