Modeling Geomagnetic Storms Based on Predicted Solar Wind Properties

Schemes that predict coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters at Earth generally predict only the size and scale of an event [1]. We use state-of-the-art modeling to evaluate our ability to predict geospace conditions in the case that only the bulk properties of the solar wind are known. We consider this question: Does a smooth model CME produce the same bulk effects as an actual CME?

We use the coupled Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3) ionosphere/plasmasphere code[2] and the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere and ring current[3] to evaluate the effect of a model CME, based on a solar-wind-monitoring prediction scheme, versus the effect of the actual CME.

[1] Kunkel, V. and J. Chen (2010), Evolution of a coronal mass ejection and its magnetic field in interplanetary space, ApJ Lett., 715, L80--L83, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/715/2/L80

[2] Huba, J. and J. Krall (2013), Modeling the plasmasphere with SAMI3, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6--10, doi:10.1029/2012GL054300

[3] Toffoletto, F., S. Sazykin, R. Spiro, and R. Wolf (2003), Inner magnetospheric modeling with the Rice Convection Model, Space Science Reviews, 107, 175--196, doi:10.1023/A:1025532008047

Research supported by NRL base funds.