73 The Research on Hydrometeorology Coupling Method in Basin Flood Warning and Forecasting

Monday, 8 January 2018
Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Tao Peng, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China; and T. Peng, C. G. Cui, Z. Y. Yin, T. Y. Shen, and J. C. Wang


Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters for bringing the huge loss to people's lives and property. The modern meteorological service technology development (especially quantitative precipitation estimation and Forecast Technology Development ) provides development opportunities for flood forecast,it is hoped to find a way for applying various meteorological information under the conditions of existing weather forecast accuracy, to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting.

In view of the above objectives,the research takes the problem ' QPE \ QPF is introduced to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting ' as oriented, and carry out the research on Hydro-meteorology Coupling Method in Basin Flood Warning and Forecasting. The following conclusions are obtained:

(1) Based on the historical hydro-meteorological data, the research carry out the flood forecast experiment with Xin'AnJiang hydrology model, the results show that the qualified rate and the efficiency coefficients of flood simulation and verification experiment satisfy hydrological forecasting standard,the calibrated parameters of hydrological model can be used in hydrological forecast.

(2) Radar quantitative precipitation estimation ( QPE ) for flood forecasting effect experiment shows: the radar QPE without calibration is input directly into hydrological model,the simulation results are not ideal, but when the radar QPE with calibration is input into the model, the forecast precision can be more improved, simulation precision is much higher than that without calibration; From the three evaluation indexes: average certainty factor,the qualified rate of flood forecast, peak happening time is less than 3 hours, it is can be seen that overall level of flood simulation is optimal with using the calibrated radar rainfall results as the hydrological model input.

(3) Quantitative precipitation forecast ( QPF ) for flood forecasting effect experiment results shows that: during the process of flood forecast, under the conditions of heavy rainfall happening in furture, flood forecast results with considering the predicted rainfall is much well than taht without considering rainfall,and show some advantages, and can forecast the flood forecasting process in advance, but with the gradual development of the rainfall process, when the rainfall process tends to end ( mainly rainfall process has been completed ), the future precipitation have little effect on flood forecast results

(4) The flood forecast results,based on the ensemble precipitation forecast products,show that: precipitation ensemble forecast products, used in hydrological forecasting, can provide more precipitation forecast information than deterministic forecast, can enrich the hydrological model rainfall input information, and obtain possible range of the peak flow and the peak time of arrival, solve accuracy issues of single deterministic prediction on certain level,will transfer deterministic accurate forecast into possible probability forecast.

Keywords: Basin; Hydro-meteorological coupling; Quantitative Precipitation Estimation(QPE); Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(QPF); Flood Forecasting

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