A Preliminary Study of Meteorological Drought Influences to Social Events over the Maritime Continent during the Last Millennium

Drought is a climate phenomenon that has a major impact on the social conditions of the people in Southeast Asia throughout the period of history. This study used HadCM3 output in PMIP3 Last Millennium Simulations to analyze the influences of climate variabilities to long-term spatial and temporal changes in meteorological drought using SPI 12 categorized moderate and severe & extreme drought over the Maritime Contient during the Last Millennium period (850 – 1850), then carried out the impact of the drought on the conditions of political history in Southeast Asia.
On Spatially and temporally, the worst drought conditions in the Maritime Continent occurred in the mid-14th century until the middle of the 15th century and the mid-18th century until the mid-19th century.
PDO and ENSO as the major climate variabilities modulate drought over the Maritime Continent during the Last Millennium period. Severe & extreme drought over the Maritime Continent is also considered to influence the political history of Southeast Asia during the Last Millennium period, especially in agrarian societies.