Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF: Two Models for Your Next Forecast (Invited Presentation)

As meteorology and the social sciences continue to integrate, forecast considerations must go beyond the physical environment. In addition to socioeconomic makeup of a forecast area, a thorough understanding of risk perception is also necessary. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) and Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) illustrate the cognitive processes that determine how a receiver responds to forecast and warning messages. We will briefly discuss the two models and highlight key takeaways from each. Next we will provide examples from recent weather events that demonstrate hits or misses in message communication, specifically on social media. Finally, we will provide some considerations for emergency managers, media meteorologists and the National Weather Service in developing more effective messages.