Understanding Himalayan Extreme Rainfall to Inform Disaster Governance

The hydrological aspects of the Himalayan flooding events were investigated with the coupled atmospheric and Hydrological (WRF-LIS) modeling tool. The Convective storms occurring at the steep edge of broad high topography, such as the Rocky Mountains and Himalayas, are notorious for producing surprising and lethal flash floods. We investigated two recent Himalayan flood events (a) 2010 Ladakh flood: A flash flood and landslide in the Leh region of the Indus Valley in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir on 5–6 August 2010 resulted in hundreds of deaths and great property damage. (b) 2013 Uttrakhand flood: Over a three-day period in June 2013, approximately 500–1000 mm of rain fell over Uttarakhand and its river valleys as well as neighboring Nepal. The extensive precipitation and runoff led to devastating floods and landslides throughout the region and resulted in much destruction and loss of life (over 4,000 villages were affected, and the death toll exceeded 5,000). The Uttarakhand flood had characteristics in common with major 2013 floods in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and Alberta.

Our study examines the land-atmosphere interactions & cloud structure and dynamics of these flooding events in more detail, identifying the synoptic, mesoscale, convective, orographic, and land-surface components of the storm. We include satellite observations, ground-based radar imagery, and convection-permitting model simulations down to 1 km grid resolution to show the three-dimensional character of the precipitating cloud systems in more detail than previous studies. A coupled model like the WRF-LIS system or a similar coupled model is capable of providing hydrologic information and potentially dangerous scenarios that could be very useful in high landslide- and flood prone regions. Our Land Information System (LIS) calculations suggest that soil moisture preconditioning by prior storms in the area in a vulnerable watershed is a hydrologic ingredient that should be taken into account along with the meteorological ingredients. In this regard, our results will be seen to reinforce the position taken by Doswell et al. (1996) that local forecasting of flood situations is ideally based on identifying key meteorological and hydrologic "ingredients" for a variety of flash flood–producing storms provides lessons for understanding and predicting flash floods and leads to insights into flash flood–producing scenarios in various regions of the world.

The hydrological aspects of the Himalayan flooding events were investigated with the coupled atmospheric and Hydrological (WRF-LIS) modeling tool. The Convective storms occurring at the steep edge of broad high topography, such as the Rocky Mountains and Himalayas, are notorious for producing surprising and lethal flash floods. We investigated two recent Himalayan flood events (a) 2010 Ladakh flood: A flash flood and landslide in the Leh region of the Indus Valley in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir on 5–6 August 2010 resulted in hundreds of deaths and great property damage. (b) 2013 Uttrakhand flood: Over a three-day period in June 2013, approximately 500–1000 mm of rain fell over Uttarakhand and its river valleys as well as neighboring Nepal. The extensive precipitation and runoff led to devastating floods and landslides throughout the region and resulted in much destruction and loss of life (over 4,000 villages were affected, and the death toll exceeded 5,000). The Uttarakhand flood had characteristics in common with major 2013 floods in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and Alberta.

Our study examines the land-atmosphere interactions & cloud structure and dynamics of these flooding events in more detail, identifying the synoptic, mesoscale, convective, orographic, and land-surface components of the storm. We include satellite observations, ground-based radar imagery, and convection-permitting model simulations down to 1 km grid resolution to show the three-dimensional character of the precipitating cloud systems in more detail than previous studies. A coupled model like the WRF-LIS system or a similar coupled model is capable of providing hydrologic information and potentially dangerous scenarios that could be very useful in high landslide- and flood prone regions. Our Land Information System (LIS) calculations suggest that soil moisture preconditioning by prior storms in the area in a vulnerable watershed is a hydrologic ingredient that should be taken into account along with the meteorological ingredients. In this regard, our results will be seen to reinforce the position taken by Doswell et al. (1996) that local forecasting of flood situations is ideally based on identifying key meteorological and hydrologic "ingredients" for a variety of flash flood–producing storms provides lessons for understanding and predicting flash floods and leads to insights into flash flood–producing scenarios in various regions of the world.