Quantifying the Spatial and Temporal Extent of the Eastern United States "Warming Hole"

Despite the continued increase in global average temperature in the twentieth century, there exist regions that have shown either a lack of warming or a cooling in annual average temperature. These regions have been termed "warming holes" in the climate science literature and several mechanisms have been introduced as possible causes. Definitions of the warming hole have been inconsistent, with studies focusing on different seasons and on different parts of the air temperature distribution (minimum, mean, or maximum). Spatially, there has also been a lack of consensus on the location of the warming hole, with some studies suggesting a central US location and others a southwest US location. This research will attempt to quantify the temporal and spatial extent of the warming hole using high resolution (4km) PRISM data from 1948-2015. We will perform annual and seasonal analysis using moving 30-year trends based on minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures to determine the areal location of the warming hole, and hopefully offer consistency and consensus on where and when the warming hole existed in the United States in recent decades.