Joint Session 58 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Kerry H. Cook , Univ. of Texas ; Gudrun Magnusdottir , Univ. of California

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- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 7 January 2018

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1A
Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate 
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ.; Geeta G. Persad, Carnegie Institution for Science
8:45 AM
1A.1
Aerosol Impact on Seasonal Prediction Using FIM-Chem-iHYCOM Coupled Model
Shan Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell and L. Zhang

9:00 AM
1A.2
Constraining Aerosol Forcing from the Land Surface Temperature Record
Zhaoyi Shen, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming and I. M. Held
9:15 AM
1A.3
The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects
Geeta G. Persad, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA; and K. Caldeira
9:30 AM
1A.4
Regional Fingerprints and Energy Budget Analysis of Southern Hemispheric Warming
Kwang-Yul Kim, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
9:45 AM
1A.5
Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Influences on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity and the Hydrologic Cycle
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, K. A. Emanuel, and M. Previdi
Recording files available
Session 1B
Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Atlantic 
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas
8:45 AM
1B.1
Loosening the AMOC's Grip on the Atlantic Climate (Invited Presentation)
Amy Clement, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. Lozier and M. Cane
9:15 AM
1B.3
Decadal Variability and Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Rosie Eade, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and A. A. Scaife, D. M. Smith, and H. L. Ren
9:30 AM
1B.4A
Multidecadal Changes of the South Atlantic Ocean Angola–Benguela Front
Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

9:45 AM
1B.5
Long-Range Dependence in Millennial-Scale Climate Models
James Franke, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. L. Stein, M. Haugen, and E. Moyer

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2A
Role of Water in Shaping Features of the Climate System
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin; Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin
10:30 AM
2A.1
10:45 AM
2A.2
Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability on Extratropical Cyclone Development and Strength
Gregory Tierney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. J. Posselt and J. F. Booth
11:00 AM
2A.3
Moist Baroclinic Instability over a Wide Range of Climates: From Periodic Waves to Diabatic Rossby Vortices
Paul A. O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and T. M. Merlis and M. S. Singh
11:15 AM
2A.4
11:30 AM
2A.5
11:45 AM
2A.6
The Sensitivity of the Water Vapor Budget to SSTs and Aerosols within Radiative Equilibrium Experiments
Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant, S. R. Herbener, and S. M. Saleeby
Recording files available
Session 2B
Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Pacific 
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas
10:30 AM
2B.1
Characterizing Pacific Ocean Regime Shifts
Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Kumar

10:45 AM
2B.2
The impact of Low-Level Cloud Feedback on Persistent Changes in Atmospheric Circulation in the Pacific
Robert Burgman, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman, A. C. Clement, and H. Vazquez

11:00 AM
2B.3
Decadal Attribution of the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-Interim
Xiaoming Hu, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. A. Sejas, M. Cai, P. C. Taylor, Y. Deng, and S. Yang

11:30 AM
2B.5
Climatology and ENSO variation of Outgoing Longwave Radiation as Depicted By TOVS, AIRS, CERES, and MERRA2
Jae N. Lee, JCET, Baltimore, MD; and J. Susskind, L. Iredell, and Y. K. Lim

11:45 AM
2B.6

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3A
The Climate Science Special Report
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites
2:00 PM
3A.1
3:00 PM
3A.4
The Fourth National Climate Assessment: A Tool for Informing Decisions (Invited Presentation)
Kristin Lewis, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; and D. R. Reidmiller, K. Reeves, and C. Avery
3:30 PM
3A.6
Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability (Invited Presentation)
Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, and A. LeGrande
3:45 PM
3A.7
Extremes and Attribution (Invited Presentation)
Russell Vose, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling and K. E. Kunkel
4:00 PM
3A.8
Recording files available
Session 3B
ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
2:00 PM
3B.1
ENSO and the Response to Global Warming
Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Kohyama
2:30 PM
3B.3
A Two-Year Forecast for a 60–80% Chance of La Niña in 2017–18
Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. M. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G. A. Meehl
2:45 PM
3B.4
3:00 PM
3B.5
Contrasting Impacts of Slow and Fast Wind Variations on ENSO
Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh
3:15 PM
3B.6
Influence of Westerly Wind Events Stochasticity on El Niño Amplitude: The case of 2014 vs. 2015.
Martin PUY, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, P. DiNezio, A. Voldoire, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Madec, C. Menkes, and M. J. McPhaden
3:30 PM
3B.7
Trans-Pacific ENSO Teleconnections Pose a Correlated Risk to Global Agriculture
Weston Anderson, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and W. Baethgen
3:45 PM
3B.8
A Tropical Ecological Forecasting Strategy for ENSO Based on a Global Modeling Framework
Forrest M. Hoffman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Xu, N. O. Collier, P. Levine, and J. T. Randerson

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 1
Poster Session I
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
82
Relationships between Subtropical Marine Low Stratiform Cloudiness and Estimated Inversion Strength in CMIP5 Models
Tsuyoshi Koshiro, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Shiotani, H. Kawai, and S. Yukimoto

84
Contributions of Asian Pollution and SST Forcings on Precipitation Change in the North Pacific
Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South)

86
Effect of Aggregated Black Carbon Aging on Their Infrared Absorption and Longwave Radiative Forcing
Yu Wu, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and T. Cheng

87
Effects of Mixing States on the Multiple-Scattering Properties of Black Carbon Aerosols
Tianhai Cheng, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Wu

91
Linear Analysis of Moisture Transport due to Baroclinic Waves
Alfredo N Wetzel, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. M. Smith and S. N. Stechmann

93
Detecting Climate Trends Using AIRS, IASI, and CrIS Brightness Temperature Spectra
Daniel DeSlover, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. O. knuteson, D. Tobin, and H. Revercomb

94
Understanding an Intermodal Diversity of the Northwestern Pacific SST in CMIP5 RCP Scenarios
Dong-Won Yi, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

Handout (1.4 MB)

95
Moist Processes as Triggers for Tipping Points in Weather–Climate Interactions
Derek J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and G. Tierney, F. He, and A. Morales

Poster 98 has been moved. New paper number 1B.4A

99
A Process-Based Assessment of Decadal-Scale Surface Temperature Evolutions in the NCAR CCSM4’s 25-Year Hindcast Experiments
Junwen Chen, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and Y. Deng, W. Lin, and S. Yang

101
Room for Improvement in Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction
Sang-Ik Shin, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

102
Trying Out a Planetary Ring System for ENSO Prediction
Lucy Hancock, Consultant, Washington, DC; and R. B. Chadwick

Handout (2.2 MB)

103
New ENSO Identification: Applications for Seasonal Prediction
Michael Ventrice, The Weather Company/IBM, Andover, MA

105
106
Different Decaying Characteristics for Two Types of El Niño and Their Relationships with the Summer Rainfall in China
Shengjie Chen, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China; and J. He

107
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias
Anna Y. Borovikov, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Kovach and J. Marshak

Handout (4.0 MB)

108
The Role of the South Pacific Oscillation in ENSO Predictions
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. You

110
A Case Study of Coastal El Niño Event in Early 2017
Noriyuki Adachi, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Takemura, H. Sato, and K. Kamiguchi
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

112
Examining Diurnal Variability across the Equatorial Pacific Basin associated with ENSO
Tony O. Hurt Jr., Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, Boulder, CO; and N. Sakaeda, J. Dias, and G. N. Kiladis

113
Understanding Long-Lead ENSO Predictions within the Framework of Recent ENSO Events.
Boniface O. Fosu, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

114
Cold Season Southwest Asia Precipitation Sensitivity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events
Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. Barlow, T. Xu, and T. Zhang

115
The Relationships Between El Niño Southern Oscillation and Climate Extremes in Paraná River Basin, Brazil
Eliane Barbosa Santos, Brazil; and E. D. Freitas, S. A. A. Rafee, T. Fujita, A. P. Rudke, J. A. Martins, L. D. Martins, R. Hallak, and R. A. F. Souza
Manuscript (888.9 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4B
ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part II
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California
8:45 AM
4B.2
Evolving Impacts of Multiyear La Niña Events on Atmospheric Circulation and U.S. Drought
Yuko M. Okumura, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and P. DiNezio and C. Deser
9:00 AM
4B.3
Factors Determining the Asymmetry of ENSO 
De-Zheng Sun, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Liang and X. Q. Yang
9:15 AM
4B.4
A Hierarchy of Models for ENSO Diversity in Past, Present, and Future
Christina Karamperidou, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Takahashi, B. Dewitte, and R. Xie

9:30 AM
4B.5

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4A
Convection-Resolving/Eddy-Permitting Climate Modeling
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE; Kuan-Man Xu, NASA Langley Research Center
8:30 AM
4A.1
8:45 AM
4A.2
9:00 AM
4A.3
Projected Changes over Western Canada Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model
Yanping Li, Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada; and S. Kurkute and L. Chen
9:30 AM
4A.5
Changes in the Convective Population and Thermodynamic Environments in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the United States
Kristen Lani Rasmussen, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO; and A. F. Prein, R. M. Rasmussen, K. Ikeda, and C. Liu
9:45 AM
4A.6
Low Cloud Feedback in an Ultraparameterized Global Climate Model with Explicitly Simulated Boundary Layer Turbulence
Christopher S. Bretherton, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. Parishani, M. S. Pritchard, M. C. Wyant, and M. F. Khairoutdinov
Recording files available
Joint Session 20
Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part I
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
8:30 AM
J20.1
Do State-of-the-Art CMIP5 ESMs Accurately Represent Observed Vegetation-Rainfall Feedbacks? Focus on the Sahel
Michael Notaro, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and F. Wang, Y. Yu, J. Mao, X. Shi, and Y. Wei
8:45 AM
J20.2
9:15 AM
J20.4
Local versus Remote Soil Moisture Contributions to Near-Surface Temperature Variability
Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, H. Wang, and Y. Chang

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part I
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6A
Climate Sensitivity—Part I
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund; Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas
10:30 AM
6A.1
Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Statistical and Sampling Methods (Invited Presentation)
Alex G. Libardoni, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. E. Forest, A. P. Sokolov, and E. Monier

11:00 AM
6A.3
Understanding Variability in Transient Climate Response
Brooke K. Adams, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler

11:15 AM
6A.4
Climate Feedbacks from Internal Variability
Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. Rugenstein and D. Abbot
11:30 AM
6A.5
Intermodel Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
Xiaoming Hu, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and P. Taylor, M. Cai, S. Yang, Y. Deng, and S. A. Sejas
11:45 AM
6A.6
Projected Changes in Atmospheric Stability for Japan Using Large Ensemble Simulations
Sho Kawazoe, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Fujita, S. Sugimoto, Y. Okada, S. Watanabe, R. Mizuta, A. Murata, M. Ishii, and H. Kawase

Recording files available
Session 6B
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part II
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.
10:30 AM
6B.1
10:45 AM
6B.2
Projected Narrowing and Reinforcement of the NH Jet in Winter—Effects of Arctic and Tropical Processes
Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and Y. Peings and J. Cattiaux
11:00 AM
6B.3
11:15 AM
6B.4
Impacts of Decreasing Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Summer on Extreme Heat Events
Chen-Geng Ma, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang
11:30 AM
6B.5
The PNA Teleconnection in Different Climate States
Yongyun Hu, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Y. Wang
11:45 AM
6B.6
A Modified Persistent Anomaly Index Applied to Present and Future Climates
Rebecca Lee Miller, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and W. A. Robinson
Recording files available
Joint Session 24
Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part II
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
10:30 AM
J24.1
Investigation of Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks in Oklahoma Using Local Coupling Metrics
Ryann Ashley Wakefield, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara
11:00 AM
J24.3
Potential Reemergence of Seasonal Soil Moisture Anomalies in North America
Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Kumar, Y. Wang, and B. Livneh
11:15 AM
J24.4
Moisture Sources for Flash Floods in the United States
Jessica M. Erlingis, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD; and J. J. Gourley
11:30 AM
J24.5
11:45 AM
J24.6
Satellite Observations Revealed Major Biophysical Climate Effects of Grassland–Cropland Conversion over East Asia Drylands
Gensuo Jia, CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and W. Ma and W. Lu

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 7A
Climate Sensitivity—Part II
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund; Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas
1:30 PM
7A.1
Estimating Radiative Feedbacks from Stochastic Fluctuations in Surface Temperature and Energy Imbalance (Invited Presentation)
Cristian Proistosescu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. Armour, A. Donohoe, G. H. Roe, M. F. Stuecker, and C. M. Bitz
1:45 PM
7A.2
Analyzing Temperature Anomaly Projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Empirical Model of Global Climate
Laura McBride, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Hope, T. Canty, R. J. Salawitch, W. Tribett, and B. Bennett
2:15 PM
7A.4
2:45 PM
7A.6
The Neutral Radiative Effect of Anvil Clouds in the Tropical West Pacific
Sara E. Berry, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 7B
Climate Variations on Intraseasonal Time Scales
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.; Martin Puy, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas
1:30 PM
7B.1
Impacts of Madden–Julian Oscillation on Storm-Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America
Cheng Zheng, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang, H. M. Kim, M. Zhang, and W. Wang
1:45 PM
7B.2
Climate Indexes and Intraseasonal Influences on Brazilian Natural Hydropower Energy
Patricia Diehl Madeira Sr., Climatempo Meteorologia, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. G. M. Ramos, B. Lobo, and A. J. D. N. Silva
2:15 PM
7B.4
Relating the Morphology of Convection to ITCZ Extent
Kyle Robert Wodzicki, Texas A&M, College Station, TX; and A. D. Rapp
2:30 PM
7B.5
Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data
Andrey Savtchenko, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, D. Meyer, and B. Vollmer
2:45 PM
7B.6
Transition to the Summer Convective Season in the Southeastern United States
Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto-Ferreira and H. Wells
3:00 PM
7B.7
A Relationship between Lightning Flash Rate and Convective Variables on a Large-Scale Grid
Vinay Kumar, Texas A&M Univ., Corpus Christi, TX; and C. Liu

3:15 PM
7B.8
Development of a Cold-Air Damming Index for Northern New England
Nicholas Strickland, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and E. G. Hoffman, L. B. Avilés, and S. T. K. Miller

Paper 7B.9 has been moved. It is on in the 46Broadcast as paper 3.3.

3:30 PM
7B.9A
Recording files available
Joint Session 30
Land Surface–Atmosphere InteractionsPart III
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
1:30 PM
J30.1
The Impact of a Low Bias in SWE Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts
Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and P. D. Broxton and N. Dawson
1:45 PM
J30.2
High-Impact Weather Forecasts Using a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
Nathan T. Lis, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and N. Yussouf and T. A. Jones
2:00 PM
J30.3
2:15 PM
J30.4
Brown Ocean Effect on the Louisiana August 2016 Extreme Flooding Event
Udaysankar Nair, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. Rappin, E. Foshee, W. Smith, R. A. Pielke Sr., R. Mahmood, J. L. Case, C. B. Blankenship, J. M. Shepherd, J. A. Santanello, and D. Niyogi
2:45 PM
J30.6A
Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets
Nan Wei, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and L. Zhou, G. Xia, Y. Dai, and W. Hua
3:00 PM
J30.7
Modeling the Convective Response to Land-Use Change in the Northern Great Plains
Gabriel Bromley, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT; and T. Gerken, S. S. Williams, and P. Stoy
3:30 PM
J30.9
Evaluating and Benchmarking Land Surface Models
Heather S. Rumbold, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Weedon, M. J. Best, and S. V. Kumar

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 8
Structure and Evolution of Climate Teleconnections in Observations & Simulations 
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL; Ramalingam Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.
3:00 PM
8.1
The Role of Teleconnecions in Climate Change (Invited Presentation)
Steven B. Feldstein, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Lee, M. Goss, and T. Gong
3:15 PM
8.2
A Teleconnection between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eastern and Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Christina Patricola, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang
3:30 PM
8.3
How Important Is the Stratospheric Pathway of ENSO for Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Climate Variability? (Invited Presentation)
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. M. Polvani, L. Sun, J. H. Richter, and C. Deser

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 2
Poster Session II
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
533
When Will We Be Committed to Crossing Critical Temperature Thresholds?
Cristian Proistosescu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. Armour, G. H. Roe, and P. Huybers

535A
Statistical Thermodynamics and the Size Distributions of Tropical Convective Clouds
Timothy J. Garrett, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and I. Glenn, S. K. Krueger, and N. Ferlay

536
New Pathway of Tropical Influences on Arctic Subseasonal Warming Events in the Troposphere
Yen-Heng Lin, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

537
Wet and Dry Tropical/Subtropical Regions Show Opposite Sensitivities to Observed Greenhouse Gas Warming
Jaya khanna, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy

538
Space-Based Drought Changes in 1980–2017 and Climate Warming
Felix Kogan, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD

539
Sea Surface Temperature Biases in CMIP5 Coupled Models and Their Implications for Regional Climate Simulations and Projections
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and A. Giannini, R. Seager, and N. Vigaud

540
Quantification of Global Warming: A Critical Evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs
Austin Hope, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. J. Salawitch, T. Canty, L. McBride, W. Tribett, and B. Bennett

542
Temperature Anomalies from the AIRS Product on Giovanni for the Climate Comminity
Feng Ding, NASA/GSFC/GES DISC and Adnet Sys. Inc., Greenbelt, MD; and T. Hearty, J. Wei, M. Theobald, B. Vollmer, E. Seiler, and D. Meyer

544
Using Multi-Physics and Multi-Model Regional Climate Model Ensembles to Assess Climate Resiliency in the Great Plains
William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. Gettinger, B. Lingwall, P. A. Norton, C. Bruyère, M. Tye, and A. Jaye

545
Impact of Precipitation-Induced Sensible Heat on the Simulated Climatology of Land-Surface Air Temperature
Nan Wei, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and Y. Dai, M. Zhang, L. Zhou, and D. Ji

546
Discrete Ordinates Spectral Model for Clear-Sky Longwave Surface Irradiance
Mengying Li, Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and Z. Liao and C. F. M. Coimbra
Manuscript (693.9 kB)

547
Enabling Reanalysis Research Using the Collaborative Reanalysis Technical Environment (CREATE)
Gerald L. Potter, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Carriere, J. Hertz, J. Peters, T. P. Maxwell, S. Strong, J. Shute, Y. shen, and T. Lee

548
Influence of AO/NAO/PNA Evolution on Eastern and Southeastern U.S. Storm Environment
Matthew Brown, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski

549
Numerical Modeling of a Heavy Rainfall Event in a Future Climate
John M. Lanicci, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and T. D. Allison and H. E. Fuelberg

Handout (9.2 MB) Handout (9.2 MB)

551
Comparison of Convective Aggregation as Simulated by Two Different Cloud Resolving Models
Alison Banks, Salisbury Univ., Salisbury, MD; and A. Naegele, S. Herbener, D. Dazlich, and D. Randall

552
Convective Aggregation and the Size Distribution of Updrafts
Travis A. O'Brien, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and K. Kashinath, H. Inda Diaz, and W. Collins

553
Regional Climate Model Validation for Central/Eastern Europe using Hydrostatic vs Non-Hydrostatic Approaches
Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and T. Kalmar, I. Pieczka, and J. Bartholy
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

554
Stochastic Multicloud Model (SMCM) Implemented NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2): Sensitivity to the Middle Tropospheric Moisture Parameter in the SMCM
Bidyut B. Goswami, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and B. Khouider, R. Phani, P. Mukhopadhyay, and A. Majda

555
Antecedent Synoptic Environments Most Conducive to North American Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions
Andrew C. Winters, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Handout (24.3 MB)

556
Improved Characterization of the Magnitude and Causes of Spatio-Temporal Variability in Wind Resources
S.C. Pryor, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and R. J. Barthelmie, T. Biondi, and T. J. Shepherd

558
Caribbean Precipitation Trends during a Regional Sea Surface Temperature Warming Period, 1982–2014
Equisha Glenn, City College, New York, NY; and M. E. Angeles, N. Devineni, T. Smith, and J. E. Gonzalez

559
The Sinuosity of Midlatitude Atmospheric Flow and Its Potential Impacts on Extreme Weather Events in the Northern Hemisphere
Shauna K. Bokn, Metropolitan State Univ., Denver, CO; and J. Shepard and K. Schuenemann

560
Types of Synoptic Storms that Drive High Storm Surge in Boston Harbor
Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and R. O'Donnell and L. Agel

562
An East Coast Winter Storm Climatology and Projected Future Trends
Lena M. Dziechowski, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and E. DiGangi and E. R. Martin

563
Testing the Role of Westerly Jet in the Termination of Meiyu
Wenwen Kong, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and J. C. H. Chiang

564
A Quantitative Approach to Associate Crop Production and Precipitation
M. Bannayan Sr., Ferdowsi Univ. of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran (Islamic Republic of); and S. Asadi and A. Monti Sr.

566
Recent and Future Trends of Cold Season Extratropical Cyclones over the Eastern United States
Nicholas H. Balderas, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Jennrich, N. Myers, and J. C. Furtado

567
Process Evaluation of Northeast Winter Precipitation in CMIP5
Anji Seth, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and J. M. Thibeault and C. Lynch

568
Modulation of Precipitation under Future Warm Climate over the CONUS
Mukul Tewari, The Weather Company, IBM, New York, NY; and C. Watson, L. A. Treinish, L. A. Winslow, and K. Rose

569
571
Evaluation of a WRF Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Over the Ogallala Aquifer Region
Yongjun Zhang, Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS; and X. Lin

574
Climatological Characteristics of Frontogenesis and Related Circulations over East China in June and July
Jun Hou, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China; and Z. Guan

575
American Warming Hole Is Not Unique; In Europe We Also Have Some
Lucie Pokorna, IAP, Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Kucerova and R. Huth

Handout (2.3 MB)

576
Quantifying the Spatial and Temporal Extent of the Eastern United States "Warming Hole"
Joseph Leonard, Southern Illinois Univ., Carbondale, IL; and J. Schoof and T. Ford

579
Understanding and Communicating Local Climate Change
Jacob C. Muller, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. W. Titley, S. K. Miller, and A. M. Walker

580
Korea Climate Change Trend with the Changing of Precipitation
Ihn-Cheol Seong, Inje Univ., Gimhae, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. B. Kim, B. J. Kim, W. S. Jung, and J. K. Park

Handout (1.0 MB)


Joint Poster Session 3
Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
471
The Feedback of Carbon–Nitrogen–Water Cycle to Climate Change
Li Dan, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

472
Examining the Effects of Mosaic Land Cover on Extreme Events in Historical Downscaled WRF Simulations
Megan S. Mallard, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and T. L. Spero

473
The Impacts of Agricultural Land Use and Management on Regional Climate Systems: Interactions with the Asian Summer Monsoon
Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and D. Singh, B. Cook, M. Puma, and C. Montes

474
The Impacts of Agricultural Land Cover and Management on Land–Atmosphere Coupling: A Midlatitude Sensitivity Assessment
Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and B. Cook, C. Montes, and M. Puma

476
A Comparison of Air Temperatures at Irrigated and Nonirrigated Sites in Andalucia, Spain
Logan T. Mitchell, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, P. Ordóñez, A. I. Quintanar, and C. Ochoa-Moya

477
The Role of Soil Moisture over Irrigated Land on Precipitation in the Northern Great Plains at Convective Scales
Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, U. Nair, and R. Pielke Sr.

478
Regional Warming Amplification and Land Surface Feedbacks
Ethan David Coffel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. M. Horton

480
Current Trends in Land–Atmosphere Coupling Related to Drought
Joshua K. Roundy, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and C. R. Ferguson and J. A. Santanello

482
A 42-Yr Assessment of Cloud-Base-Height Trends in the Luquillo Mountains of Eastern Puerto Using Radiosonde Observations from San Juan
Paul W. Miller, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote, C. A. Ramseyer, A. E. Van Beusekom, and G. González

484
485
Land Surface Skin Temperature Errors in the NCEP Models over CONUS
Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, Y. Xia, H. Wei, J. Meng, Y. Wu, and Y. Yu

486
Assessing the Effects of LSS Choice on Simulated Geopotential Heights over China: A Case Study Using WRF
Xin-Min Zeng, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China; and B. Wang and N. Wang

Handout (5.5 MB)

487
Flood Risk and Atmospheric Internal Variability: A Multiscale Study over Ireland
Arianna Valmassoi, Univ. College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland; and S. S. Gharbia, F. Matacchiera, F. Barbano, S. Di Sabatino, and F. Pilla

488
Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains
Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. A. Klein, H. Y. Ma, Q. Tang, S. Xie, I. N. Williams, J. A. Santanello, D. R. Cook, and M. S. Torn

489
NCA-LDAS, a Terrestrial Hydrology Satellite Data Assimilation System for the National Climate Assessment: Overview and Ver. 1.0 Hydrologic Indicators
Michael F. Jasinski, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, J. S. Borak, D. M. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, M. Rodell, H. Rui, H. Beaudoing, B. Li, K. R. Arsenault, B. Vollmer, and J. Bolten

490
Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into the Community Land Model with Explicit Carbon and Nitrogen Components using Data Assimilation Research Testbed
Xiaolu Ling, Insititute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and C. Fu, Z. L. Yang, and W. Guo

494
Melting and Freezing Lake Ice: Getting Phase Transitions Correct in Lake Models
Zack Taebel, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. E. Reed and A. R. Desai

495
Impact of Mesoscale Land–Atmosphere Interactions on Boundary Layer Processes in Arctic Region
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang and J. E. Nachamkin

496
Analyzing Surface Energy Balance and Hydrologic Changes in the Dry Andes Using CORDEX Data
Margaret M. Orr, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and B. Hanson, M. O'Neal, and S. A. Rauscher

499
The Importance of Soil Moisture to Influence and Predict Summer Extreme Heat Events in North America
Zhe Zhang, Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; and Y. Li, F. Chen, and M. Barlage

500
Convective Cold Pool Responses to Soil Moisture
Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant and S. C. van den Heever

501
Investigating Soil Moisture–Convective Precipitation Feedbacks Using In Situ Soil Moisture in the Central United States
Shanshui Yuan, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and Y. Wang, S. M. Quiring, T. Ford, A. L. Houston, and L. Goldstein

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Peter J. Webster Symposium Banquet
Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 9A
African Climate Variations and Change—Part I
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ.; Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
8:30 AM
9A.1
Inter-Annual Variability and Large-Scale Controls of African Easterly Wave Activity
James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer
8:45 AM
9A.2
9:00 AM
9A.3
The Midday Atmospheric Controls on Mesoscale Convective System Intensity in Two Convection-Permitting Regional Atmosphere Models
Rory Gordon John Fitzpatrick, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and K. H. Cook, D. J. Parker, C. M. Taylor, and E. K. Vizy
9:15 AM
9A.4
WRF-Simulated Winter Season Sahelian Dust Variabilty (1959–2014)
Gregory S. Jenkins, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. Gueye
9:30 AM
9A.5
Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to North African Dust Aerosol under ENSO Variability: Dynamics, Variability and Feedbacks in NASA Models and Observations
Asha Jordan, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik, A. Gnanadesikan, D. Kim, M. Chin, and H. S. Badr
9:45 AM
9A.6
Impact of Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols on East African Rainfall
Claire Scannell, UKMO, Exeter, UK; and B. B. B. Booth
Recording files available
Session 9B
Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part I
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division; Patrick Taylor, NASA LaRC
8:45 AM
9B.3
9:00 AM
9B.4
9:15 AM
9B.5
9:30 AM
9B.6

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 10B
Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part II
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division; Patrick Taylor, NASA LaRC
10:30 AM
10B.1
Variability in Planetary Wave Activity over the 20th Century
Amanda H. Lynch, Brown Univ., Providence, RI; and A. Zsom

10:45 AM
10B.2
How Robust Is the Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss in Isolation?
Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; and S. E. Hay, R. Blackport, K. E. McCusker, and T. Oudar

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 7
Machine Learning and Climate Studies
Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern Univ.; Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
10:30 AM
TJ7.1
Deep Learning for Detecting Extreme Weather and Climate Patterns (Core Science Keynote)
William Collins, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and M. Prabhat, E. Racah, Y. Liu, K. Kashinath, C. Pal, J. C. Biard, K. E. Kunkel, M. Wehner, and T. O'Brien
11:00 AM
TJ7.2
Super-Resolution and Deep Learning for Climate Downscaling
Thomas Vandal, Northeastern Univ., Cambridge, MA; and A. R. Ganguly
11:30 AM
TJ7.4
Automated Detection of Fronts Using a Deep Learning Algorithm
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC; and J. C. Biard and E. Racah
11:45 AM
TJ7.5
Computational Models for Detection and Analysis of Synoptic-Scale Ice Storm Patterns
Ranjini Swaminathan, Central Climate Science Center at Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and K. Hayhoe
Recording files available
Session 10A
African Climate Variations and Change—Part II
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Wassila Thiaw, CPC; Rory Gordon John Fitzpatrick, Univ. of Leeds
10:30 AM
10A.1
An IR Sounding–Based Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer in North Africa
Stephen D. Nicholls, Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and K. I. Mohr
11:00 AM
10A.3
On the Coherence of Sahel Region under Different Emissions Scenarios
Hamada S. Badr, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik

11:15 AM
10A.4A
Why Do Global Climate Models Struggle to Represent Low-Level Clouds in the West African Summer Monsoon?
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. Kniffka, G. Pante, and L. Hannak
11:30 AM
10A.5
11:45 AM
10A.6
Re-Examining the ITCZ as a Control on Rainfall and Its Variability in Equatorial Africa
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and A. H. Fink, C. C. Funk, and T. A. Vaughan

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 11
Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Variability and Change
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
11:15 AM
11.2
Snow-(N)AO Teleconnection and Its Modulation By the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation
Yannick Peings, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and H. Douville, J. Colin, D. Saint-Martin, and G. Magnusdottir
11:30 AM
11.3
Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange
Jordan Benjamin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. Abalos and A. de la Camara

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 2
2018 Horton Lecture
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
1:30 PM
L2.1
Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)
Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 12A
African Climate Variations and Change—Part III
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas; Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
1:30 PM
12A.1
Climatology and Seasonal Forecasting Analysis from a New Multi-Decade High-Resolution Rainfall and Temperature Dataset for Rwanda
Asher Siebert, IRI, Palisades, NY; and T. Dinku, F. Vuguziga, A. Twahirwa, D. Kagabo, S. J. Mason, A. W. Robertson, J. DelCorral, and R. Cousin
1:45 PM
12A.2
Modeling Hydrological Regimes of the Logone-Lake Chad River Basin, Africa under CMIP5 GCMs Projections
Asmita Murumkar, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and M. T. Durand, B. Mark, A. Fernández, M. Moritz, I. Hamilton, S. Phang, S. Laborde, and A. Shastry
2:00 PM
12A.3
Seasonal and Long-term Variability in the Atmospheric Moisture Budget and Transport over East Africa
Ross Maidment, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. E. Demory and E. Black
2:15 PM
12A.4
The Mechanisms Associated with Ethiopian Belg Subseasonal Rainfall Variability
Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and E. B. Biratu
2:30 PM
12A.5
Variability of Interannual-to-Decadal Teleconnections Observed over the Greater Horn of Africa in the 20th Century
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and T. K. Bahaga and P. Knippertz
2:45 PM
12A.6
Remote Drivers of Interannual Variability of the East African Long Rains
Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and S. F. Milton
3:00 PM
12A.7
Trend and Periodicity of Drought over Ethiopia
Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Bahir Dar Univ., Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

3:15 PM
12A.8
Climate Change at the Margin in East Africa
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and A. Giannini, R. Seager, and N. Vigaud

3:30 PM
12A.9
Causes of Uncertainty in Projections of East African Rainfall Change
Dave Rowell, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Chadwick
Recording files available
Session 12B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part I
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State Univ.
1:30 PM
12B.1
1:45 PM
12B.2
Historical Return Periods of the Strongest Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast
Michael Dettinger, USGS, Carson City, NV; and F. M. Ralph and J. J. Rutz
2:00 PM
12B.3
2:15 PM
12B.4
Attributing Seasonal Montane Snowfall Patterns to Atmospheric Rivers Using Different Detection Methods
Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and S. A. Margulis, B. Guan, D. E. Waliser, and P. J. Neiman
2:30 PM
12B.5
Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers
Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and V. Espinoza, B. Guan, F. M. Ralph, and D. A. Lavers
2:45 PM
12B.6
Multi-Model Assessment of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Atmospheric River Prediction Skill
Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, F. Vitart, F. M. Ralph, and A. Goodman
3:00 PM
12B.7
3:15 PM
12B.8
Mesoscale Processes in Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Southern California
Forest Cannon, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, R. Weihs, and D. P. Lettenmaier
3:30 PM
12B.9
Statistical Relationship between the Atmospheric River and Extratropical Cyclone
Yanjuan Guo, Texas A&M Univ., Corpus Christi, TX; and T. Shinoda, B. Guan, and D. E. Waliser

Recording files available
Session 12C
Jay Fein's Legacy—Part I
Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF; Eric DeWeaver, NSF
1:30 PM
12C.1
2:15 PM
12C.3
The Monsoon Expeditions: The Legacy of Jay S. Fein (Invited Presentation)
Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 3
Poster Session III
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
943
Changes in West African Monsoon Precipitation: The Competition between Large-scale Dynamics and Local Thermodynamics
Weipeng Zheng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and P. Braconnot, M. Gaetani, and K. Izumi

944
Improvements in the Precipitation Distribution of West Africa with a Convection-Permitting Simulation at Climate Scales
Ségolène Berthou, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and E. J. Kendon, M. J. Roberts, D. Rowell, and R. Stratton

945
HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Deciisons for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa
John H. Marsham, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, U.K.; and D. Rowell, B. E. Evans, R. J. Cornforth, F. H. M. Semazzi, R. L. Wilby, and T. HyCRISTAL team

946
The CP4 Africa Control Simulation—An Initial Assessment of the Run
Rachel Stratton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and C. Senior, S. Vosper, and M. Vellinga

947
Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens
Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and R. James, R. Washington, B. Abiodun, G. Kay, J. Mutemi, W. Pokam, N. C. G. Hart, G. Artan, and C. Senior

948
Sahel Decadal Rainfall Variability and the Role of Model Horizontal Resolution
Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, M. Mizielinski, M. E. Demory, R. Schiemann, J. Strachan, and C. L. Bain

949
Rainy Season Failure in West Africa: Projected Changes and Sources of Uncertainty
Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Bacci and A. Giannini

950
South Asian Summer Monsoon: SST-Based Predictability and Real-Time Forecast of the 2016 and 2017 Monsoon
Agniv Sengupta, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam and A. Ruiz-Barradas

951
Effects of Tropical Expansion on Regional Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure
Daniel F. Schmidt, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and K. M. Grise

952
Regional and Seasonal Characteristics of the Recent Expansion of the Tropics in the Northern Hemisphere
Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. M. Davis and P. W. Staten

954
Increased in Dry Season Length Over the Congo
Yan Jiang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Zhou, W. Hua, and A. Raghavendra

955
Long-Term Trends and Variability of Eddy Activities in the South China Sea
Hans Von Storch, Helmholtz Center, Geesthacht, Germany; and M. Zhang

Handout (516.4 kB)

956
Annual Cycle of the Main Northern Extratropical Modes of Circulation Variability in Different Reanalyses
Lucie Pokorna, Faculty of Science, Charles Univ., Prague, Czech Republic; and R. Beranova and R. Huth

Handout (1.8 MB)

957
Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Waves under Global Warming
Ibourahima Kebe, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

959
Assessment of NMME Skill over Southwest Asia and Horn of Africa
Ryan D Smith, U.S. Air Force, Asheville, NC; and R. M. Randall, R. B. Kiess, and J. P. Anthony

960
Impact of Climate Variability and Climate Change over Future Irrigation Requirment
Adrajow Admasu Ferede, National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

962
Precipitation Forecasts and Their Relationship with Large-Scale Tropical Dynamics in the GFS and IFS
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and G. N. Kiladis

963
The Modulation of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall by Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves
Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. N. Kiladis and J. Dias

Poster 964 has been moved. New paper number 14A.3A

965
Temporal and Spatial Climate Variability and Trends over Abay (Upper Blue Nile) River Basin
Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Bahir Dar Univ., Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

966
An Extreme Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Event in 2016: Dynamics and Predictability
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and B. Lu

967
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking over the North Atlantic during Boreal Summer: Climatology and Impacts
Breanna L. Zavadoff, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

968
Widening of the Regional Meridional Overturning Circulation
Paul W. Staten, Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN; and K. M. Grise

971
A Sub-Seasonal Forecast Multi-System for Extreme Events Prediction
Stefano Materia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and Á. Muñoz and S. Gualdi

972
Frequency and Predictability of North American and European Heat Waves
Szandra A. Peter, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

973
Performance Evaluation of a Regional Climate Model in Simulating Rainfall over Indonesia
Ganesha T Chandrasa, Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia; and A. Montenegro

974
All India Monsoon Rainfall Variability:Large-Scale Circulations, QBO, and ENSO Impacts and Processes
Remata S. Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri and M. Fadavi

975
Evaluation of Subseasonal Prediction Skill Using the Global FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model
Shan Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, S. Benjamin, B. W. Green, and G. Grell

977
Diurnal Cycle of West African Westerly Jet and Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Sahel
Weiran Liu, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy

979
How Well Does ERA-Interim Capture ITCZ Characteristics and Precipitation?
Corey Storm Howard, Texas A&M, College Station, TX; and A. D. Rapp and K. R. Wodzicki

981
Changes in Ocean Temperature in the Barents Sea in the 21st Century
Zhenxia Long, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

982
Pushing LES and GCM Models to Higher Resolutions to Improve Climate Bias of Low Clouds when Compared with Tethered Balloons Measurements and Retrievals over the North Slope of Alaska
Erika L. Roesler, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; and D. Dexheimer, B. R. Hillman, L. Dennis, and M. McChesney

983
The Role of Ocean and Atmosphere Heat Transport in the Arctic Amplification
Rosa M. Vargas, UCAR/NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. O. Kwon and H. Furey

984
Greenland Near-Surface Air Temperature Datasets: What Should We Use to Evaluate CMIP6?
J.E. Jack Reeves Eyre, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng

Handout (8.1 MB)

985
Interactions between Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover and the Troposphere Circumpolar Vortex
Gwangyong Choi, Jeju National Univ., Jeju-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. A. Robinson

986
Exploring Connections between Arctic Sea Ice and Tornado Activity in the United States
Robert J. Trapp, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and K. Hoogewind

987A
Developing Capabilities for Analysis in the Arctic within the NOAA NWS Local Climate Analysis Tool
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. E. Churma, F. Horsfall, M. Coulman, and J. C. Meyers

988
Drivers of 2016 Record Arctic Warmth Assessed Using Climate Simulations Subjected to Factual and Counterfactual Forcing
Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and L. Sun, D. Allured, M. Hoerling, L. Smith, and D. Murray

989
Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and M. L'Heureux, Q. Zhang, and Q. Ding

990
Effects of Greenland Anticyclone Magnitude and Persistence on Spring Sea Ice Melt in the North Atlantic
Thomas J. Ballinger, Texas State Univ., San Marcos, TX; and E. Hanna, R. J. Hall, T. E. Cropper, J. A. Miller, M. H. Ribergaard, J. E. Overland, and J. L. Høyer

991
Understanding Internal Climate Variability and the Upper Limit of 2°C Increase of Global Mean Surface Temperature
Seunghwon Hyun, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

993
Hemispheric Asymmetry of Global Warming Explained by a Conceptual Model
Christoph S Funke, IARC, Bethesda, MD; and V. A. Alexeev

994
Utility of the United States National Ice Center's Interactive Multi-Sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System Data to View Arctic Variability
Sofia M. Montalvo, NESDIS, Suitland, MD; and K. Neugent, K. Nohe, D. P. McCormick, S. R. Helfrich, K. Berberich, and R. Lane
Manuscript (43.4 kB)

995
Classifying the Tropospheric Precursor Patterns of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Ming Bao, Nanjing Univeristy, Nanjing, China; and X. Tan, D. L. Hartmann, and P. Ceppi

996
Impact of Different Processes on Tropical Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor as Simulated by Chemistry–Climate Models
Kevin M Smalley, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, S. Bekki, M. Deushi, M. Marchand, O. Morgenstern, D. A. Plummer, K. Shibata, Y. Yamashita, and G. Zeng

Handout (11.4 MB)

997
Quantifying Stratospheric Polar Vortex Trends during the 20th and 21st Centuries
Carly Narotsky, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and J. C. Furtado

998
Decadal Data Sets and Decadal Trends: Considerations Based on Radio Occultation Observation
Anthony J. Mannucci, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. O. Ao, P. Vergados, O. P. Verkhoglyadova, and B. A. Iijima

999
New Nuclear Winter Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4)
Joshua L. Coupe, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and C. G. Bardeen, A. Robock, and O. B. Toon

1000
Differential Temperature Trends across Elevation within the "Warming Hole" of the Southeast United States
Ryan P. Shadbolt, Northland College, Ashland, WI; and A. W. Ellis
Manuscript (230.4 kB)

Handout (506.2 kB)

1001
Discussion of Recent Cyclical Temperature Trends Detected in the United States
Adam Theisen, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data Quality Office/CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Sisterson

1002
Regional Climate Impacts of Irrigation during the 2012 Central Plains Drought
Jun Wang, Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and C. Aegerter and J. Zeng

1005
High Risk of Unprecedented U.K. Rainfall
Vikki Thompson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Eade, N. Dunstone, A. A. Scaife, and D. M. Smith

1007
Atmospheric River Activity in a 4xCO2 Climate Simulation
Jessica Solomon, Humboldt State Univ., Arcata, CA; and S. W. Powell, J. W. Whitaker, and E. D. Maloney

1009
Simulation of Atmospheric Rivers: Dynamical Modulation and Resolution Dependence
Erik T. Swenson, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and J. Lu and D. M. Straus

1010
Atmospheric River Importance to Extratropical Climate and Hydrology
Deanna L. Nash, ; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, H. Ye, and F. M. Ralph

1011
Water Vapor Budget in Atmospheric Rivers: A Multi-Model Evaluation
Bin Guan, Univ. of California, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and F. M. Ralph

1012
1013
Typhoon Season Extreme Rain Characteristics of Taiwan
Alex Henny, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. E. Howarth, C. D. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

1014
Understanding the Role of Air–Sea Interaction on Extreme Rainfall in Aquaplanet and Earth-like CESM
Amy Clement, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. J. Benedict and B. Medeiros

1015
Changes in the Dynamics of a Blocking Event with Warming
Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson

1016
Floridian Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation. Part II: Future Climate Projections
Ajay Raghavendra, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. R. Cloutier-Bisbee, S. M. Milrad, and A. Dai

Handout (9.7 MB)

1017
An Examination of an Inland-Penetrating Atmospheric River Flood Event under Potential Future Thermodynamic Conditions
Kelly Mahoney, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. Swales, M. Mueller, M. Alexander, K. M. Malloy, and M. Hughes

1019
Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast United States: 1979–2014
Macy E. Howarth, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. Henny, C. D. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

1020
The Characteristics of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers during Water Year 2017 and Northern California's Record-Breaking Precipitation
Chad W. Hecht, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, J. F. Kalansky, and B. K. Kawzenuk

1021
1022
Best Practices of Building and Being a Trusted Climate Communicator
Richard L. Thoman Jr., NOAA, Fairbanks, AK; and B. E. Mayes, K. V. Matthews, D. R. Kluck, J. Crouch, and D. S. Arndt


Joint Poster Session 6
Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Ben Lintner, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey; Yolande L. Serra, JISAO
887
Preliminary Foundings from an Experimental Hydrometeorological Network in the North American Monsoon Region
Carlos M. Minjarez-Sosa, Univ. de Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico; and S. Villegas and G. Cuevas-Figueroa

888
Impact of Initial Estimates on Convective-Permitting Simulations during the North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013
James M. Moker Jr., Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. F. Arellano Jr., C. L. Castro, Y. L. Serra, and D. K. Adams

889
A Tale of Seven Hurricanes and Their Interaction with the Monsoon: A Modeling Study
Dorothea Ivanova, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Prescott, AZ

890
Contribution of Extreme Convective Storms to Rainfall in South America
Kristen Lani Rasmussen, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Zuluaga and R. A. Houze Jr.

892
The North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017
David K. Adams, Univ. Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and E. R. Vivoni, B. R. Lintner, C. Minjarez Sosa, Y. L. Serra, A. Granados, A. Vázquez Galvez, J. C. Rodriguez, V. Verduzco, E. R. Pérez Ruiz, F. Barffuson, M. Grutter, J. S. Haase, H. Liang, E. Cabral Cano, D. J. Gochis, E. Yépez, A. Robles Morua, A. Bezanilla, R. Del Rio Salas, A. I. Quintanar, C. Ochoa Moya, and L. Salazar-Tlaczani


Joint Poster Session 8
Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Posters
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Benjamin Cook, NASA GISS
919
Optimal Application of Basin Management Practices in Geumho River for Reducing Effect of Climate Change
Yoonkyung Park, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Choi, W. Cha, O. Lee, and S. Kim
Manuscript (66.9 kB)

921
Future IDF Curves in Korea Using Scale-Invariance Technique under AR5 RCP Scenarios
Sangdan Kim, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Park and J. Choi
Manuscript (160.6 kB)

923
Study on the Improvement of Disaster Prevention Target Rainfall for Disaster Prevention in South Korea 
Youngseok Song, Hanseo Univ., Seosan-Si, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Lee, Y. Song, J. Lee, and M. Park
Manuscript (144.5 kB)

924
Changes of Hydroclimatic Intensity over East Asia Projected by Multiregional Climate Model Ensemble under RCP Scenarios.
Ahn Joong-Bae, Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. Yeon-Woo and I. Eun-Soon

926
Impacts of the Surface Heterogeneities on Local Climate in the Amazonian Subbasin of Ji-Paraná Using the Eta/Noah-MP Model
Isabel L. Pilotto, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil; and D. A. Rodriguez and S. C. Chou

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


98th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 13A
Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation—Part I: The Hadley Circulation
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia
8:30 AM
13A.1
8:45 AM
13A.2
Energetic Perspectives on the Changing Tropical Circulation (Invited Presentation)
Nicole Feldl, Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA; and Y. T. Hwang and S. Bordoni
9:15 AM
13A.4
Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Regimes in MERRA Reanalyses Using an ISCCP Simulator
Justin P. Stachnik, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and C. Schumacher
Recording files available
Session 13B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part II
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California
8:30 AM
13B.1
Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales
Cory F. Baggett, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, and B. D. Mundhenk
8:45 AM
13B.2
The Development of Persistent Atmospheric Rivers
Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and G. Magnusdottir
9:00 AM
13B.3
Mesoscale Observation and Modeling of the Atmospheric River during CalWater2
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle, J. Cummings, P. G. Black, C. W. Fairall, R. Branch, and A. T. Jessup
Recording files available
Session 13C
Jay Fein's Legacy—Part II
Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF; Eric DeWeaver, NSF
8:30 AM
13C.1
Carbon Climate Interactions (Invited Presentation)
Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA
9:00 AM
13C.2
Recording files available
Joint Session 48
Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Ben Lintner, Rutgers, State Univ. of New Jersey; Yolande L. Serra, JISAO
8:30 AM
J48.1
An Interhemispheric View of the American Monsoons: Vegetation and Moisture Transport Processes (Invited Talk)
Paola A. Arias, Univ. de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; and J. A. Martinez, S. C. Vieira, and J. C. Villegas
8:45 AM
J48.2
Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America (Invited Talk)
Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and L. Trenary, K. Pegion, B. Cash, T. DelSole, and J. L. Kinter III
9:00 AM
J48.3
The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States (Invited Presentation)
Christopher L. Castro, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and H. I. Chang, D. K. Adams, T. Luong, T. M. Lahmers, and C. Ochoa-Moya
9:15 AM
J48.4
"The Paroxysmal Precipitation of the Desert": Flash Floods in the Southwestern United States
James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, J. Signell, L. Yang, E. Morin II, and D. C. Goodrich

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 14A
Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation Part II: Precipitation/ITCZ
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Paul W. Staten, Indiana Univ.
10:30 AM
14A.1
Impacts of Deep and Shallow Convection on the Gross Moist Stability
Hien Xuan Bui, National Central Univ., Taiwan, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; and J. Y. Yu

10:45 AM
14A.2
Paper 14A.3 has been moved. Now 7B.9A

11:00 AM
14A.3A
Toward Improving Tropical Rainfall Forecast Skill: Do Equatorial Waves Matter?
Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich, G. N. Kiladis, and M. Gehne
11:15 AM
14A.4
The Annual Cycle of the Tropical Rain Belts and Its Changes under CO2 Quadrupling in the TRACMIP Ensemble
Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and J. Scheff
11:30 AM
14A.5
Understanding Precipitation Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Forcing in the Tropics (Invited Presentation)
Jie He, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. C. Johnson, G. A. Vecchi, A. T. Wittenberg, and B. P. Kirtman
11:45 AM
14A.6
Observed Changes in ITCZ Extent and the Relationship to Midtropospheric Dry Layers
Anita D. Rapp, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and K. R. Wodzicki and E. A. Smith
Recording files available
Session 14B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part III
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan
10:45 AM
14B.2
Identification of Tropical–Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based on Stratospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions and Poleward Moisture Transport
A. J. De Vries, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany; and H. G. Ouwersloot, S. B. Feldstein, M. Riemer, A. M. El Kenawy, M. F. McCabe, and J. Lelieveld
11:00 AM
14B.3
3-D Moisture Budget of Changes to Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate
Jesse Norris, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and G. Chen and J. D. Neelin
11:15 AM
14B.4
Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a Long Climate Model Simulation
Arielle J. Catalano, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and A. J. Broccoli, S. Kapnick, and T. Janoski
11:30 AM
14B.5
A Global Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Melanie Bieli, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. L. Evans, and T. M. Hall
11:45 AM
14B.6
Recording files available
Session 14C
Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part I
Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.
10:30 AM
14C.1
Piers Does Global Photosynthesis
Joe Berry, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA
10:45 AM
14C.2
Year-to-Year Changes in the Earth System: A Study of the Carbon Cycle using NASA Observations and the GEOS Model
Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Gelaro, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Chatterjee, R. Koster, E. Lee, T. Oda, B. Weir, and F. zeng

11:00 AM
14C.3
Physiological Responses of Tropical Forests to Rising Atmospheric CO2 as a Driver of Continental Asymmetries in Precipitation Change and Runoff Extremes
James Randerson, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and G. J. Kooperman, B. Langenbrunner, M. S. Pritchard, A. L. S. Swann, F. M. Hoffman, K. Lindsay, and C. D. Koven
11:15 AM
14C.4
NASA Observations and Research to Inform Studies of Partitioning of Carbon Between Atmosphere and Biosphere
Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Science Mission Directorate, Washington, DC; and K. W. Jucks, H. A. Margolis, K. A. Hibbard, and D. Considine
11:30 AM
14C.5
A New NASA Capability to Quantify Regional CO2 and CH4 Surface Exchange and Improve Flux Model Performance
G. M. Wolfe, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. A. Hannun, S. R. Kawa, P. A. Newman, T. Hanisco, G. S. Diskin, J. Digangi, J. Nowak, J. D. Barrick, K. L. Thornhill, A. Noormets, R. Vargas, K. L. Clark, and W. P. Kustas
11:45 AM
14C.6
Observing System Simulations for Carbon–Climate Feedbacks
David Schimel, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and P. J. Sellers, L. Ott, and A. Eldering

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


David J. Raymond Symposium Luncheon
Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 15A
Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part I
Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Emily J. Becker, NOAA; Maria K. Flatau, NRL
1:30 PM
15A.1
2:00 PM
15A.3
A Simple Definition of Flow Regimes and Its Relationship to High-Impact Weather Events
Eyad H. Atallah, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum, J. Hart, and Y. Low
2:15 PM
15A.4
Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical S2S Forecasts with Weather Types over North America
Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Á. Muñoz, G. A. Vecchi, and R. G. Gudgel
2:30 PM
15A.5
Recording files available
Session 15B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part IV
Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan
1:30 PM
15B.1
Floridian Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation. Part I: Observations and Trends
Shealynn Rhoades Cloutier-Bisbee, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and A. Raghavendra and S. M. Milrad
1:45 PM
15B.2
2:00 PM
15B.3
An Assessment of Drought Trends in the Contiguous United States Using the Drought Risk Atlas
Curtis J. Riganti, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda and B. Fuchs
2:30 PM
15B.5
2:45 PM
15B.6
How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Precipitation Variability and Extremes?
Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, Z. Feng, and K. Sakaguchi
Recording files available
Joint Session 54
Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part I
Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Jeffrey Basara, University of Oklahoma
1:30 PM
J54.1
1:45 PM
J54.2
The Role of Synoptic-Scale Circulation in Great Lakes Basin Snow Cover Ablation
Zachary Suriano, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. J. Leathers

2:00 PM
J54.3
2:15 PM
J54.4A
Storm-Scale Variations of Water Isotopes in the Tropical High Andes
Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and H. Guy, L. B. Perry, E. Burton, S. Arias, N. Quispe, N. Montoya, M. Rado, M. Andrade, R. Winkelman, M. Peñaloza, C. Cooper, and E. Montpellier
2:30 PM
J54.5
The United States Seasonal Drought Atlas: Gridded Cool and Warm Season Moisture Balance Reconstructions from 1400 to 2016
David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and E. Cook, D. Burnette, M. Torbenson, D. Griffin, I. Howard, A. P. Williams, and B. Cook
2:45 PM
J54.6
Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America
Honghai Zhang, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 16
Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part II
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.
2:30 PM
16.1
2:45 PM
16.2

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 17C
Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part III
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.
3:45 PM
17C.2
4:00 PM
17C.3
The Effect of Global Climate Change on the Seasonal Cycle of the Global Energy Balance
Andrew A. Lacis, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY
4:15 PM
17C.4
Effect of Climate Change on the Ecohydrology of the Mt. Marsabit Cloud Forest (Northern Kenya)
Sietse O Los, Swansea Univ., Swansea, United Kingdom; and F. A. Street-Perrot, N. J. Loader, and C. Froyd

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 17A
Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part II
Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ.; Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC
3:30 PM
17A.1
Advancing Convective Severe Weather Outlooks into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales
Cory F. Baggett, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. N. Zito, K. M. Nardi, S. J. Childs, and E. A. Barnes
3:45 PM
17A.2
Strong Relations between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. K. Tippett, A. Kumar, A. H. Butler, L. M. Ciasto, Q. Ding, K. J. Harnos, and N. Johnson

4:15 PM
17A.4
Effects of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Panama Canal Watershed Precipitation
Steven R. Paton, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC; and R. Stallard
4:30 PM
17A.5
Joint Influences of the MJO and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on the Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Circulation
Matthew R. Green, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado, E. A. Barnes, M. L'Heureux, L. M. Ciasto, and K. Harnos
4:45 PM
17A.6
Predictability and Mechanisms of North Atlantic Oscillation Variability—A Signal-to-Noise Paradox
Adam A. Scaife, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, R. Eade, N. Dunstone, C. MacLachlan, L. Hermanson, and R. Comer
Recording files available
Session 17B
Emerging Surprises in Climate Change
Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
3:30 PM
17B.1
One Drier, One Wetter: A Tale of Two Rainforests
Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and J. khanna

3:45 PM
17B.2
Unexpected Impacts of Global Warming on Extreme Warm Spells
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. McColl, and C. Penland

4:00 PM
17B.3
4:15 PM
17B.4
Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming over North America: Structure and Mechanisms
Vishal Ravi, Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and N. Thomas and S. Nigam

4:30 PM
17B.5
Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability in the Ocean on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
Heather Vazquez, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and R. Burgman
4:45 PM
17B.6
The United States “Warming Hole”: An Update to 2016 and Application to Equivalent Temperature
Justin Schoof, Southern Illinois Univ., Carbondale, IL; and J. Leonard and T. Ford
Recording files available
Joint Session 58
Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part II
Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Benjamin Cook, NASA GISS
3:30 PM
J58.1
Development and Use of Ensemble Hydroclimate Projections in the Columbia Basin: A Practitioner’s Perspective
Erik S. Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR; and O. S. Chegwidden and B. Nijssen
4:00 PM
J58.3
Assessing Future Climate Extremes over the United States Using the rCEI Index
Emily Aiken, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and S. A. Rauscher

4:15 PM
J58.4
Detection and Attribution of the Terrestrial Runoff in the Conterminous United States
Jiafu Mao, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and W. Forbes, W. Fu, X. Shi, D. Ricciuto, M. Jin, and S. C. Kao

4:30 PM
J58.5
4:45 PM
J58.6
The Effect of Global Warming on Water Availability
Craig R. Ferguson, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY; and M. Pan