Program: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change (98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Kerry H. Cook , The Univ. of Texas at Austin ; Gudrun Magnusdottir , Univ. of California

« Collapse View

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 7 January 2018

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

WeatherFest

Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Plenary Session 1

18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM

PL1.1

Transforming Communication in the Environmental Sciences: Some Thoughts from a Reluctant Participant (Invited Presentation)

Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Plenary Session 2

Welcoming Address

Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 1A

Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ.; Geeta G. Persad, Carnegie Institution for Science

8:45 AM

1A.1

Aerosol Impact on Seasonal Prediction Using FIM-Chem-iHYCOM Coupled Model

Shan Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell and L. Zhang

9:00 AM

1A.2

Constraining Aerosol Forcing from the Land Surface Temperature Record

Zhaoyi Shen, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming and I. M. Held

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1A.3

The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects

Geeta G. Persad, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA; and K. Caldeira

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.4

Regional Fingerprints and Energy Budget Analysis of Southern Hemispheric Warming

Kwang-Yul Kim, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1A.5

Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Influences on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity and the Hydrologic Cycle

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo, K. A. Emanuel, and M. Previdi

Recorded Presentation

Session 1B

Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Atlantic

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas

8:45 AM

1B.1

Loosening the AMOC's Grip on the Atlantic Climate (Invited Presentation)

Amy Clement, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. Lozier and M. Cane

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1B.2

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: Mechanism, Predictability, and Associated Impact on Hurricane Activity (Invited Presentation)

Rong Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1B.3

Decadal Variability and Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Rosie Eade, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and A. A. Scaife, D. M. Smith, and H. L. Ren

Recorded Presentation

1B.4

Patterns of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Hurricane Intensity Change Along the U.S. Coast

9:30 AM

1B.4A

Multidecadal Changes of the South Atlantic Ocean Angola–Benguela Front

Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

9:45 AM

1B.5

Long-Range Dependence in Millennial-Scale Climate Models

James Franke, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. L. Stein, M. Haugen, and E. Moyer

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 2A

Role of Water in Shaping Features of the Climate System

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison; Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin

10:30 AM

2A.1

Water Vapor Phase Changes and the Mesoscale Dynamics of Heavy Precipitation

Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2A.2

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability on Extratropical Cyclone Development and Strength

Gregory Tierney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. J. Posselt and J. F. Booth

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2A.3

Moist Baroclinic Instability over a Wide Range of Climates: From Periodic Waves to Diabatic Rossby Vortices

Paul A. O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and T. M. Merlis and M. S. Singh

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2A.4

Precipitating Quasigeostrophic Equations and Potential Vorticity Inversion with Phase Changes

Leslie M. Smith, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2A.5

The Influence of Microphysics Parameterizations on Medium-Range Forecasts of Hemispheric Waviness

Jessica R. Taheri, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2A.6

The Sensitivity of the Water Vapor Budget to SSTs and Aerosols within Radiative Equilibrium Experiments

Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant, S. R. Herbener, and S. M. Saleeby

Recorded Presentation

Session 2B

Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Pacific

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas

10:30 AM

2B.1

Characterizing Pacific Ocean Regime Shifts

Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Kumar

10:45 AM

2B.2

The impact of Low-Level Cloud Feedback on Persistent Changes in Atmospheric Circulation in the Pacific

Robert Burgman, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman, A. C. Clement, and H. Vazquez

11:00 AM

2B.3

Decadal Attribution of the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-Interim

Xiaoming Hu, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. A. Sejas, M. Cai, P. C. Taylor, Y. Deng, and S. Yang

11:15 AM

2B.4

Role of Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing in Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Modulation

Tianyi Sun, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and Y. M. Okumura

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2B.5

Climatology and ENSO variation of Outgoing Longwave Radiation as Depicted By TOVS, AIRS, CERES, and MERRA2

Jae N. Lee, JCET, Baltimore, MD; and J. Susskind, L. Iredell, and Y. K. Lim

11:45 AM

2B.6

Characterizing Pacific Decadal Variability Using Dynamical Systems Theory and Machine Learning

Nandini Ramesh, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. A. Cane

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lecture 1

2018 Haurwitz Lecture

Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM

L1.1

Some Observations of Normal Modes in the Atmosphere (Invited Presentation)

George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 3A

The Climate Science Special Report

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites

2:00 PM

3A.1

The Climate Science Special Report: An Overview (Invited Presentation)

Donald J. Wuebbles, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.2

Twenty-First-Century Climate: Future Projections and the Potential for Surprise (Invited Presentation)

Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.3

The Climate Science Special Report: Science Informing Mitigation Issues (Invited Presentation)

Benjamin J. DeAngelo, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3A.4

The Fourth National Climate Assessment: A Tool for Informing Decisions (Invited Presentation)

Kristin Lewis, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; and D. R. Reidmiller, K. Reeves, and C. Avery

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3A.5

Climate Science Special Report: Sea Level Rise (Invited Presentation)

William Sweet, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3A.6

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability (Invited Presentation)

Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, and A. LeGrande

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3A.7

Extremes and Attribution (Invited Presentation)

Russell Vose, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling and K. E. Kunkel

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

3A.8

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States (Invited Presentation)

Patrick C. Taylor, NASA, Hampton, VA; and J. Perlwitz, D. J. Wuebbles, and W. Maslowski

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California

2:00 PM

3B.1

ENSO and the Response to Global Warming

Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Kohyama

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.2

ENSO Teleconnections: How Well Do We Know Them And How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly?

Clara Deser, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.3

A Two-Year Forecast for a 60–80% Chance of La Niña in 2017–18

Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. M. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G. A. Meehl

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.4

How Important are the Extratropics to ENSO Diversity and Predictability?

Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.5

Contrasting Impacts of Slow and Fast Wind Variations on ENSO

Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.6

Influence of Westerly Wind Events Stochasticity on El Niño Amplitude: The case of 2014 vs. 2015.

Martin PUY, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, P. DiNezio, A. Voldoire, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Madec, C. Menkes, and M. J. McPhaden

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3B.7

Trans-Pacific ENSO Teleconnections Pose a Correlated Risk to Global Agriculture

Weston Anderson, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and W. Baethgen

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3B.8

A Tropical Ecological Forecasting Strategy for ENSO Based on a Global Modeling Framework

Forrest M. Hoffman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Xu, N. O. Collier, P. Levine, and J. T. Randerson

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

3B.9

Pacific–Atlantic Interactions Heat Up: Evidence from El Niño and Mid-Latitude Blobs

Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 1

Poster Session I

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Relationships between Subtropical Marine Low Stratiform Cloudiness and Estimated Inversion Strength in CMIP5 Models

Tsuyoshi Koshiro, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Shiotani, H. Kawai, and S. Yukimoto

Potential Role of Aerosols in Causing the Global Warming Hiatus through Affecting Pacific SST: A Test with CESM1

Chenrui Diao, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and Y. Xu

Contributions of Asian Pollution and SST Forcings on Precipitation Change in the North Pacific

Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South)

A Climatological Relationship between MJO/ENSO Phases and Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Saharan Dust Storms across the Tropical Atlantic Basin

Jordan Rabinowitz, Global Weather and Climate Center, Columbia, MO

Effect of Aggregated Black Carbon Aging on Their Infrared Absorption and Longwave Radiative Forcing

Yu Wu, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and T. Cheng

Effects of Mixing States on the Multiple-Scattering Properties of Black Carbon Aerosols

Tianhai Cheng, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Wu

The Water Vapor Source and Transport Characteristic of Rainy Seasons in Eastern China Based on Lagrangian Method

Yi Shi, China; and Z. Jiang, Z. Liu, and L. Li

A Two-Step Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Property Simulations in Community Atmosphere Model: Conventional Subgrid Parameterization vs. CLUBB

Zhibo Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and H. Song, P. L. Ma, S. Ghan, and M. Wang

Indian Peninsula Summer Climate Change in the Middle of Twenty-First Century by Regional and Global Climate Models

Xiaorui Niu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China

Linear Analysis of Moisture Transport due to Baroclinic Waves

Alfredo N Wetzel, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. M. Smith and S. N. Stechmann

Interactions between Tropical Convection and Mid-Latitude Waves that Lead to Climatological Localization of Tropical–Extratropical Moisture Transport: Some Insights from Aquaplanet Simulations

R. Lee Panetta, Texas A&M Univerisity, College Station, TX; and G. N. Kiladis and B. Medeiros

Detecting Climate Trends Using AIRS, IASI, and CrIS Brightness Temperature Spectra

Daniel DeSlover, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. O. knuteson, D. Tobin, and H. Revercomb

Understanding an Intermodal Diversity of the Northwestern Pacific SST in CMIP5 RCP Scenarios

Dong-Won Yi, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

Handout (1.4 MB)

Moist Processes as Triggers for Tipping Points in Weather–Climate Interactions

Derek J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and G. Tierney, F. He, and A. Morales

Observed Multidecadal Variability of Low-Level Convergence over the Western North Pacific in the Tropical Cyclone Season

Yen-Heng Lin, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability in the Interactive Ensemble NCAR Climate Model

Wei Zhang, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

Poster 98 has been moved. New paper number 1B.4A

A Process-Based Assessment of Decadal-Scale Surface Temperature Evolutions in the NCAR CCSM4’s 25-Year Hindcast Experiments

Junwen Chen, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and Y. Deng, W. Lin, and S. Yang

100

The Limited Influence of the NAO on Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability through Changes in Ocean Circulation

Jeremy M. Klavans, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and A. C. Clement

101

Room for Improvement in Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

Sang-Ik Shin, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

Importance of positive cloud feedback for tropical Atlantic variability

102

Trying Out a Planetary Ring System for ENSO Prediction

Lucy Hancock, Consultant, Washington, DC; and R. B. Chadwick

Handout (2.2 MB)

103

New ENSO Identification: Applications for Seasonal Prediction

Michael Ventrice, The Weather Company/IBM, Andover, MA

104

Impacts of Different ENSO Flavors and Tropical Pacific Convection Variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on Austral Summer Rainfall in South America, with a Focus on Peru

105

Genesis and Development of the Warming-Stalled Easterly Wind Anomalies in 2014

Hanjie Fan, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China

106

Different Decaying Characteristics for Two Types of El Niño and Their Relationships with the Summer Rainfall in China

Shengjie Chen, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China; and J. He

107

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

Anna Y. Borovikov, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Kovach and J. Marshak

Handout (4.0 MB)

108

The Role of the South Pacific Oscillation in ENSO Predictions

Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. You

109

A 37-Year Record of Hemispheric Cloud Albedo Derived from SBUV, TOMS, and OMPS instruments Shows No Global Response in Cloudiness during El Niño Events

Clark Weaver, ; and D. L. Wu, P. K. Bhartia, G. J. Labow, and D. Haffner

110

A Case Study of Coastal El Niño Event in Early 2017

Noriyuki Adachi, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Takemura, H. Sato, and K. Kamiguchi

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

111

Understanding Long-Lead ENSO Predictions within the Framework of Recent ENSO Events

112

Examining Diurnal Variability across the Equatorial Pacific Basin associated with ENSO

Tony O. Hurt Jr., Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, Boulder, CO; and N. Sakaeda, J. Dias, and G. N. Kiladis

113

Understanding Long-Lead ENSO Predictions within the Framework of Recent ENSO Events.

Boniface O. Fosu, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

114

Cold Season Southwest Asia Precipitation Sensitivity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events

Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. Barlow, T. Xu, and T. Zhang

115

The Relationships Between El Niño Southern Oscillation and Climate Extremes in Paraná River Basin, Brazil

Eliane Barbosa Santos, Brazil; and E. D. Freitas, S. A. A. Rafee, T. Fujita, A. P. Rudke, J. A. Martins, L. D. Martins, R. Hallak, and R. A. F. Souza

Manuscript (888.9 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

116

Skillful Climate Forecasts of the Tropical Indo-Pacific Using Model-Based Analogs

117

Diabatic Heating Differences in ERA-Interim, MERRA-2, and CFSR Atmospheric Reanalyses, and Intercomparison of the Reanalyses and CMIP5 ENSO Heating Distribution

Ni Dai, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam and P. A. Arkin

Manuscript (17.7 kB)

118

Different Flavors of Normals: Accounting for ENSO and Climate Change

Carl J. Schreck III,

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Ryan Symposium Reception

Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 4B

ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part II

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California

8:30 AM

4B.1

The South Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Role in the Tropical Pacific Interannual-to-Decadal Variability: Observations and Models

Yujia You, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4B.2

Evolving Impacts of Multiyear La Niña Events on Atmospheric Circulation and U.S. Drought

Yuko M. Okumura, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and P. DiNezio and C. Deser

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4B.3

Factors Determining the Asymmetry of ENSO

De-Zheng Sun, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Liang and X. Q. Yang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4B.4

A Hierarchy of Models for ENSO Diversity in Past, Present, and Future

Christina Karamperidou, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Takahashi, B. Dewitte, and R. Xie

9:30 AM

4B.5

What Controls the Duration of El Niño and La Niña Events?

Xian Wu, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and Y. M. Okumura and P. DiNezio

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 4A

Convection-Resolving/Eddy-Permitting Climate Modeling

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Samson Hagos, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kuan-Man Xu, NASA Langley Research Center

8:30 AM

4A.1

A New Mechanism for Warm-Season Precipitation Response to Global Warming Based on Convection-Permitting Simulations

Aiguo Dai, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. M. Rasmussen, C. Liu, K. Ikeda, and A. F. Prein

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4A.2

Analysis of the MPAS Convective-Permitting Physics Suite in the Tropics

Laura Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4A.3

Projected Changes over Western Canada Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Yanping Li, Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; and S. Kurkute and L. Chen

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4A.4

The Impacts of Convection-Permitting Resolution on Tropical Convection, Forecast Bias, and Extended Global Prediction Skill

Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4A.5

Changes in the Convective Population and Thermodynamic Environments in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the United States

Kristen Lani Rasmussen, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO; and A. F. Prein, R. M. Rasmussen, K. Ikeda, and C. Liu

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4A.6

Low Cloud Feedback in an Ultraparameterized Global Climate Model with Explicitly Simulated Boundary Layer Turbulence

Christopher S. Bretherton, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. Parishani, M. S. Pritchard, M. C. Wyant, and M. F. Khairoutdinov

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 20

Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part I

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.

8:30 AM

J20.1

Do State-of-the-Art CMIP5 ESMs Accurately Represent Observed Vegetation-Rainfall Feedbacks? Focus on the Sahel

Michael Notaro, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and F. Wang, Y. Yu, J. Mao, X. Shi, and Y. Wei

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J20.2

Land–Atmosphere Coupling Indicators in Subseasonal Atmospheric Models

Obbe Tuinenburg, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, Netherlands

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J20.3

Phase Locking of the Boreal Summer Upper-Level Atmospheric Response to Dry Land Surface Anomalies in the Continental United States

Hailan Wang, NASA, Hampton, VA; and R. D. Koster, Y. Chang, and S. Schubert

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J20.4

Local versus Remote Soil Moisture Contributions to Near-Surface Temperature Variability

Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, H. Wang, and Y. Chang

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J20.5

Global Ecosystem Variability/Change and Its Response to Elevated CO₂, Global Warming, and Climate Variability—A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Model

Ye Liu, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue, G. MacDonald, P. M. Cox, and Z. Zhang

9:45 AM

J20.6

Analysis of the Moisture Transport from the Amazon to the South America Continent Using a Moisture-Tagging WRF Model

Zhao Yang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 5

Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part I

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.

9:45 AM

5.1

Climatology of Coastal Low-Level Jets over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea Using Local and Spatial-Pattern-Based Techniques

Hans Von Storch, Helmholtz Center, Geesthacht, Germany; and D. Li

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 6A

Climate Sensitivity—Part I

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund; Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin

10:30 AM

6A.1

Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Statistical and Sampling Methods (Invited Presentation)

Alex G. Libardoni, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. E. Forest, A. P. Sokolov, and E. Monier

10:45 AM

6A.2

Recent Detection and Attribution Work at GFDL: Record Global Temperatures in 2016, Arctic Winter Warmth in 2016, and Regional Precipitation Trends

Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and F. Zeng and A. T. Wittenberg

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.3

Understanding Variability in Transient Climate Response

Brooke K. Adams, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler

11:15 AM

6A.4

Climate Feedbacks from Internal Variability

Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. Rugenstein and D. Abbot

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6A.5

Intermodel Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity

Xiaoming Hu, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and P. Taylor, M. Cai, S. Yang, Y. Deng, and S. A. Sejas

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6A.6

Projected Changes in Atmospheric Stability for Japan Using Large Ensemble Simulations

Sho Kawazoe, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Fujita, S. Sugimoto, Y. Okada, S. Watanabe, R. Mizuta, A. Murata, M. Ishii, and H. Kawase

Session 6B

Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part II

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.

10:30 AM

6B.1

A Linear Response Function Approach to the Midlatitude Jet Variability

Pedram Hassanzadeh, Rice Univ., Houston, TX

10:45 AM

6B.2

Projected Narrowing and Reinforcement of the NH Jet in Winter—Effects of Arctic and Tropical Processes

Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and Y. Peings and J. Cattiaux

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.3

Comparing North Pacific Wintertime Blocking and Jet Retractions: Identification, Structure, and Mechanisms

Melissa L. Breeden, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6B.4

Impacts of Decreasing Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Summer on Extreme Heat Events

Chen-Geng Ma, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.8 MB)

11:30 AM

6B.5

The PNA Teleconnection in Different Climate States

Yongyun Hu, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (104.9 kB)

Handout (3.0 MB)

11:45 AM

6B.6

A Modified Persistent Anomaly Index Applied to Present and Future Climates

Rebecca Lee Miller, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and W. A. Robinson

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 24

Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part II

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.

10:30 AM

J24.1

Investigation of Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks in Oklahoma Using Local Coupling Metrics

Ryann Ashley Wakefield, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J24.2

Mesoscale Variability of Land–Atmosphere Coupling Across the Southern Great Plains in the North American Regional Reanalysis

Jeffrey B. Basara, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. I. Christian

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J24.3

Potential Reemergence of Seasonal Soil Moisture Anomalies in North America

Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Kumar, Y. Wang, and B. Livneh

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J24.4

Moisture Sources for Flash Floods in the United States

Jessica M. Erlingis, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD; and J. J. Gourley

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J24.5

Observed Influence of Vegetation Variability and Change on the Climate of South America

Divyansh Chug, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and F. Dominguez

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J24.6

Satellite Observations Revealed Major Biophysical Climate Effects of Grassland–Cropland Conversion over East Asia Drylands

Gensuo Jia, CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and W. Ma and W. Lu

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 7A

Climate Sensitivity—Part II

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund; Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin

1:30 PM

7A.1

Estimating Radiative Feedbacks from Stochastic Fluctuations in Surface Temperature and Energy Imbalance (Invited Presentation)

Cristian Proistosescu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. Armour, A. Donohoe, G. H. Roe, M. F. Stuecker, and C. M. Bitz

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7A.2

Analyzing Temperature Anomaly Projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Empirical Model of Global Climate

Laura McBride, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Hope, T. Canty, R. J. Salawitch, W. Tribett, and B. Bennett

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

The Influence of Temperature-Dependent Precipitation Efficiency on Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity

Trude Storelvmo, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and R. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

Improved Climatological Hadley Circulation Reduces Model Bias in Cloud–Circulation Coupling and Model Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity

Bernard R. Lipat Jr., Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. Voigt, G. Tselioudis, and L. M. Polvani

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

Climate Sensitivity and Cloud Feedback through Three Generations of Parameterized Physics in Aquaplanet Configurations

Brian Medeiros, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Benedict and A. Clement

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.6

The Neutral Radiative Effect of Anvil Clouds in the Tropical West Pacific

Sara E. Berry, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 7B

Climate Variations on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.; Martin Puy, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas

1:30 PM

7B.1

Impacts of Madden–Julian Oscillation on Storm-Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America

Cheng Zheng, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang, H. M. Kim, M. Zhang, and W. Wang

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7B.2

Climate Indexes and Intraseasonal Influences on Brazilian Natural Hydropower Energy

Patricia Diehl Madeira Sr., Climatempo Meteorologia, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. G. M. Ramos, B. Lobo, and A. J. D. N. Silva

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

2:00 PM

7B.3

Dendrometeorology: Daily Rainfall Totals Recorded by Ponderosa Pine Latewood Width in the Western High Plains

Ian Howard, Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and D. Stahle

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7B.4

Relating the Morphology of Convection to ITCZ Extent

Kyle Robert Wodzicki, Texas A&M, College Station, TX; and A. D. Rapp

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.5

Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data

Andrey Savtchenko, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, D. Meyer, and B. Vollmer

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.6

Transition to the Summer Convective Season in the Southeastern United States

Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto-Ferreira and H. Wells

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7B.7

A Relationship between Lightning Flash Rate and Convective Variables on a Large-Scale Grid

Vinay Kumar, Texas A&M Univ., Corpus Christi, TX; and C. Liu

3:15 PM

7B.8

Development of a Cold-Air Damming Index for Northern New England

Nicholas Strickland, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and E. G. Hoffman, L. B. Avilés, and S. T. K. Miller

Paper 7B.9 has been moved. It is on in the 46Broadcast as paper 3.3.

3:30 PM

7B.9A

Feedback of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on Shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 30

Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions—Part III

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.

1:30 PM

J30.1

The Impact of a Low Bias in SWE Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts

Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and P. D. Broxton and N. Dawson

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J30.2

High-Impact Weather Forecasts Using a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

Nathan T. Lis, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and N. Yussouf and T. A. Jones

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J30.3

Scale Dependence of Land–Atmosphere Interactions in Wet and Dry Regions as Simulated with NU-WRF over the Southwestern and South-Central United States

Yaping Zhou, Morgan State Univ., Greenbelt, MD; and D. Wu, W. K. M. Lau, and W. K. Tao

2:15 PM

J30.4

Brown Ocean Effect on the Louisiana August 2016 Extreme Flooding Event

Udaysankar Nair, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and E. Rappin, E. Foshee, W. Smith, R. A. Pielke Sr., R. Mahmood, J. L. Case, C. B. Blankenship, J. M. Shepherd, J. A. Santanello, and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J30.5

The Role of the Edwards Plateau and Balcones Escarpment in Texas in Modulating August Precipitation Distribution: The Importance of Soil Type Contrast

Xiao-Ming Hu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and R. McPherson

Recorded Presentation

J30.6

Horses and Heavy Rain: Did Technology-Driven Land-Use Change Alter Regional Hydroclimate over the Central United States?

2:45 PM

J30.6A

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets

Nan Wei, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and L. Zhou, G. Xia, Y. Dai, and W. Hua

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

J30.7

Modeling the Convective Response to Land-Use Change in the Northern Great Plains

Gabriel Bromley, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT; and T. Gerken, S. S. Williams, and P. Stoy

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

J30.8

A Comparison Study of Surface Water Cycle in Land Data Assimilation Systems Using Different Noah Land Model and Different Treatments for Surface Runoff and Ground Water

Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Ek

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

J30.9

Evaluating and Benchmarking Land Surface Models

Heather S. Rumbold, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Weedon, M. J. Best, and S. V. Kumar

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 8

Structure and Evolution of Climate Teleconnections in Observations & Simulations

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL; Ramalingam Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.

3:00 PM

8.1

The Role of Teleconnecions in Climate Change (Invited Presentation)

Steven B. Feldstein, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Lee, M. Goss, and T. Gong

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

8.2

A Teleconnection between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eastern and Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Christina Patricola, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

8.3

How Important Is the Stratospheric Pathway of ENSO for Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Climate Variability? (Invited Presentation)

Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. M. Polvani, L. Sun, J. H. Richter, and C. Deser

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 2

Poster Session II

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

533

When Will We Be Committed to Crossing Critical Temperature Thresholds?

Cristian Proistosescu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. Armour, G. H. Roe, and P. Huybers

534

When Does Climate Shift Emerge in the Future beyond the Historical Variability of Precipitation?

Shoji Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

535

What Daily Area Averages of Temperature and Precipitation Reveal about the Climate of the Contiguous United States

535A

Statistical Thermodynamics and the Size Distributions of Tropical Convective Clouds

Timothy J. Garrett, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and I. Glenn, S. K. Krueger, and N. Ferlay

536

New Pathway of Tropical Influences on Arctic Subseasonal Warming Events in the Troposphere

Yen-Heng Lin, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

537

Wet and Dry Tropical/Subtropical Regions Show Opposite Sensitivities to Observed Greenhouse Gas Warming

Jaya khanna, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy

538

Space-Based Drought Changes in 1980–2017 and Climate Warming

Felix Kogan, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD

539

Sea Surface Temperature Biases in CMIP5 Coupled Models and Their Implications for Regional Climate Simulations and Projections

Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, Orono, ME; and A. Giannini, R. Seager, and N. Vigaud

540

Quantification of Global Warming: A Critical Evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs

Austin Hope, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. J. Salawitch, T. Canty, L. McBride, W. Tribett, and B. Bennett

541

Climate Sensitivity Has Never Been Demonstrated by Experiment in the Laboratory or in the Field

Peter L. Ward, U.S. Geological Survey (Retired), Jackson, WY

542

Temperature Anomalies from the AIRS Product on Giovanni for the Climate Comminity

Feng Ding, NASA GSFC/GES DISC and ADNET Systems Inc., Greenbelt, MD; and T. Hearty, J. Wei, M. Theobald, B. Vollmer, E. Seiler, and D. Meyer

543

The Spectral Dimension of Relative Humidity Feedbacks in the CMIP5 Experiments

Fang Pan, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and X. Huang

544

Using Multi-Physics and Multi-Model Regional Climate Model Ensembles to Assess Climate Resiliency in the Great Plains

William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. Gettinger, B. Lingwall, P. A. Norton, C. Bruyère, M. Tye, and A. Jaye

545

Impact of Precipitation-Induced Sensible Heat on the Simulated Climatology of Land-Surface Air Temperature

Nan Wei, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and Y. Dai, M. Zhang, L. Zhou, and D. Ji

546

Discrete Ordinates Spectral Model for Clear-Sky Longwave Surface Irradiance

Mengying Li, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and Z. Liao and C. F. M. Coimbra

Manuscript (693.9 kB)

547

Enabling Reanalysis Research Using the Collaborative Reanalysis Technical Environment (CREATE)

Gerald L. Potter, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Carriere, J. Hertz, J. Peters, T. P. Maxwell, S. Strong, J. Shute, Y. shen, and T. Lee

548

Influence of AO/NAO/PNA Evolution on Eastern and Southeastern U.S. Storm Environment

Matthew Brown, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski

549

Numerical Modeling of a Heavy Rainfall Event in a Future Climate

John M. Lanicci, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and T. D. Allison and H. E. Fuelberg

Handout (9.2 MB) Handout (9.2 MB)

550

A Multiscale Modelign Framework Study of Changes in Clouds and Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Rapid Adjustment Induced by Increasing Atmospheric CO₂

Kuan-Man Xu, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA

551

Comparison of Convective Aggregation as Simulated by Two Different Cloud Resolving Models

Alison Banks, Salisbury Univ., Salisbury, MD; and A. Naegele, S. Herbener, D. Dazlich, and D. Randall

552

Convective Aggregation and the Size Distribution of Updrafts

Travis A. O'Brien, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and K. Kashinath, H. Inda Diaz, and W. Collins

553

Regional Climate Model Validation for Central/Eastern Europe using Hydrostatic vs Non-Hydrostatic Approaches

Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and T. Kalmar, I. Pieczka, and J. Bartholy

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

554

Stochastic Multicloud Model (SMCM) Implemented NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2): Sensitivity to the Middle Tropospheric Moisture Parameter in the SMCM

Bidyut B. Goswami, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and B. Khouider, R. Phani, P. Mukhopadhyay, and A. Majda

555

Antecedent Synoptic Environments Most Conducive to North American Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions

Andrew C. Winters, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Handout (24.3 MB)

556

Improved Characterization of the Magnitude and Causes of Spatio-Temporal Variability in Wind Resources

S.C. Pryor, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and R. J. Barthelmie, T. Biondi, and T. J. Shepherd

557

The Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Predictability of Storm Tracks and Related Winter Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Katherine E. Lukens, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery

558

Caribbean Precipitation Trends during a Regional Sea Surface Temperature Warming Period, 1982–2014

Equisha Glenn, City College, New York, NY; and M. E. Angeles, N. Devineni, T. Smith, and J. E. Gonzalez

559

The Sinuosity of Midlatitude Atmospheric Flow and Its Potential Impacts on Extreme Weather Events in the Northern Hemisphere

Shauna K. Bokn, Metropolitan State Univ., Denver, CO; and J. Shepard and K. Schuenemann

560

Types of Synoptic Storms that Drive High Storm Surge in Boston Harbor

Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and R. O'Donnell and L. Agel

561

Amazon Basin Intraseasonal Rainfall: Classical Equatorially Confined Madden Julian Effect and the Role of Southern Hemisphere Rossby Wave Trains

Victor R. Chavez Sr., Univ. of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

562

An East Coast Winter Storm Climatology and Projected Future Trends

Lena M. Dziechowski, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and E. DiGangi and E. R. Martin

563

Testing the Role of Westerly Jet in the Termination of Meiyu

Wenwen Kong, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and J. C. H. Chiang

564

A Quantitative Approach to Associate Crop Production and Precipitation

M. Bannayan Sr., Ferdowsi Univ. of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran (Islamic Republic of); and S. Asadi and A. Monti Sr.

565

Pseudo-Global Warming Simulations of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events in the Iberian Peninsula

Rosana Ferreira, East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC

566

Recent and Future Trends of Cold Season Extratropical Cyclones over the Eastern United States

Nicholas H. Balderas, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Jennrich, N. Myers, and J. C. Furtado

567

Process Evaluation of Northeast Winter Precipitation in CMIP5

Anji Seth, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and J. M. Thibeault and C. Lynch

568

Modulation of Precipitation under Future Warm Climate over the CONUS

Mukul Tewari, The Weather Company, IBM, New York, NY; and C. Watson, L. A. Treinish, L. A. Winslow, and K. Rose

569

Intra-annual Characteristics of the Relationship between the Surface Temperature–Based Urban Heat Island Intensity and the Local Climatic Zones

Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, C. Dian, and Z. Dezso

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

570

Understanding Climatic Variability: The Environmental Conditions Influencing Snowstorm Variability in Upstate New York

571

Evaluation of a WRF Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Over the Ogallala Aquifer Region

Yongjun Zhang, Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS; and X. Lin

572

Spatial Patterns in the Trends in Annual and Seasonal Scale Extreme Temperatures in India

Shouraseni Sen Roy, Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL

573

Analysis of Rainfall Onset, Cessation, Length of Growing Season and Dry Spell in Ada'a District, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Olivier Abayisenga, Haramaya Univ., Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

574

Climatological Characteristics of Frontogenesis and Related Circulations over East China in June and July

Jun Hou, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China; and Z. Guan

575

American Warming Hole Is Not Unique; In Europe We Also Have Some

Lucie Pokorna, IAP, Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Kucerova and R. Huth

Handout (2.3 MB)

576

Quantifying the Spatial and Temporal Extent of the Eastern United States "Warming Hole"

Joseph Leonard, Southern Illinois Univ., Carbondale, IL; and J. Schoof and T. Ford

577

Intensity Variations in Potential Vorticity Streamers: Development Pathways, and Environmental Impacts in the North Atlantic Basin

Philippe P. Papin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and R. D. Torn

578

Analysis on Characteristic Indices of Summer Rainfall in North China

579

Understanding and Communicating Local Climate Change

Jacob C. Muller, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. W. Titley, S. K. Miller, and A. M. Walker

580

Korea Climate Change Trend with the Changing of Precipitation

Ihn-Cheol Seong, Inje Univ., Gimhae, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. B. Kim, B. J. Kim, W. S. Jung, and J. K. Park

Handout (1.0 MB)

581

Assessing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for Studies on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

Allison C. Michaelis, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann

Joint Poster Session 3

Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.

471

The Feedback of Carbon–Nitrogen–Water Cycle to Climate Change

Li Dan, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

472

Examining the Effects of Mosaic Land Cover on Extreme Events in Historical Downscaled WRF Simulations

Megan S. Mallard, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and T. L. Spero

473

The Impacts of Agricultural Land Use and Management on Regional Climate Systems: Interactions with the Asian Summer Monsoon

Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and D. Singh, B. Cook, M. Puma, and C. Montes

474

The Impacts of Agricultural Land Cover and Management on Land–Atmosphere Coupling: A Midlatitude Sensitivity Assessment

Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and B. Cook, C. Montes, and M. Puma

475

Assessment of the Impact and Sensitivity of Urbanization on the Climate of Kansas City Metropolitan Areas

Fengpeng Sun, Univ. of Missouri, Kansas City, MO

476

A Comparison of Air Temperatures at Irrigated and Nonirrigated Sites in Andalucia, Spain

Logan T. Mitchell, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, P. Ordóñez, A. I. Quintanar, and C. Ochoa-Moya

477

The Role of Soil Moisture over Irrigated Land on Precipitation in the Northern Great Plains at Convective Scales

Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, U. Nair, and R. Pielke Sr.

478

Regional Warming Amplification and Land Surface Feedbacks

Ethan David Coffel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. M. Horton

479

Is Southeastern South America Turning Wetter?

480

Current Trends in Land–Atmosphere Coupling Related to Drought

Joshua K. Roundy, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and C. R. Ferguson and J. A. Santanello

482

A 42-Yr Assessment of Cloud-Base-Height Trends in the Luquillo Mountains of Eastern Puerto Using Radiosonde Observations from San Juan

Paul W. Miller, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote, C. A. Ramseyer, A. E. Van Beusekom, and G. González

483

Observed Key Surface Parameters for Characterizing Land–Atmospheric Interactions at Xiaotang in the Northern Marginal Zone of the Taklimakan Desert, China

Lili Jin, COLA, Urumqi, China

484

Reconstructing Diurnal Cycle of Land Surface Temperature from Daily Max/Min Temperatures

Anand K. Inamdar, CICS, Asheville, NC; and R. D. Leeper

485

Land Surface Skin Temperature Errors in the NCEP Models over CONUS

Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, Y. Xia, H. Wei, J. Meng, Y. Wu, and Y. Yu

486

Assessing the Effects of LSS Choice on Simulated Geopotential Heights over China: A Case Study Using WRF

Xin-Min Zeng, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China; and B. Wang and N. Wang

Handout (5.5 MB)

487

Flood Risk and Atmospheric Internal Variability: A Multiscale Study over Ireland

Arianna Valmassoi, Univ. College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland; and S. S. Gharbia, F. Matacchiera, F. Barbano, S. Di Sabatino, and F. Pilla

488

Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. A. Klein, H. Y. Ma, Q. Tang, S. Xie, I. N. Williams, J. A. Santanello, D. R. Cook, and M. S. Torn

489

NCA-LDAS, a Terrestrial Hydrology Satellite Data Assimilation System for the National Climate Assessment: Overview and Ver. 1.0 Hydrologic Indicators

Michael F. Jasinski, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, J. S. Borak, D. M. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, M. Rodell, H. Rui, H. Beaudoing, B. Li, K. R. Arsenault, B. Vollmer, and J. Bolten

490

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into the Community Land Model with Explicit Carbon and Nitrogen Components using Data Assimilation Research Testbed

Xiaolu Ling, Insititute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and C. Fu, Z. L. Yang, and W. Guo

491

Implementation and Evaluation of a Generalized Radiative Transfer Scheme within Canopy in the Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) Model

Bo Qiu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and W. Guo, Y. Xue, and Q. Dai

492

New Era of Satellite Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Soil Moisture Observations Leads to Advances in the Predictive Understanding of Global Terrestrial Coupled Carbon–Water Cycles

Bo Qiu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Y. Xue, J. B. Fisher, and W. Guo

493

The Impacts of Human-Driven Inputs on Terrestrial and Riverine Nitrogen Fluxes in the United States

494

Melting and Freezing Lake Ice: Getting Phase Transitions Correct in Lake Models

Zack Taebel, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. E. Reed and A. R. Desai

495

Impact of Mesoscale Land–Atmosphere Interactions on Boundary Layer Processes in Arctic Region

Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang and J. E. Nachamkin

496

Analyzing Surface Energy Balance and Hydrologic Changes in the Dry Andes Using CORDEX Data

Margaret M. Orr, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and B. Hanson, M. O'Neal, and S. A. Rauscher

497

The Influence of the Appalachian Mountains on the Precipitation Transition Zone

Connor Paul Belak, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH

498

Simulating the Effects of Climate Extremes on Changes in Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Great Plains

499

The Importance of Soil Moisture to Influence and Predict Summer Extreme Heat Events in North America

Zhe Zhang, Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; and Y. Li, F. Chen, and M. Barlage

500

Convective Cold Pool Responses to Soil Moisture

Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant and S. C. van den Heever

501

Investigating Soil Moisture–Convective Precipitation Feedbacks Using In Situ Soil Moisture in the Central United States

Shanshui Yuan, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and Y. Wang, S. M. Quiring, T. Ford, A. L. Houston, and L. Goldstein

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Peter J. Webster Symposium Banquet

Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 9A

African Climate Variations and Change—Part I

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ.; Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

8:30 AM

9A.1

Inter-Annual Variability and Large-Scale Controls of African Easterly Wave Activity

James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

9A.2

The Interaction Between Cloud Regimes and Easterly Wave Activity over Africa: Convective Transitions and Mechanism

Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and W. B. Rossow

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

9A.3

The Midday Atmospheric Controls on Mesoscale Convective System Intensity in Two Convection-Permitting Regional Atmosphere Models

Rory Gordon John Fitzpatrick, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and K. H. Cook, D. J. Parker, C. M. Taylor, and E. K. Vizy

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9A.4

WRF-Simulated Winter Season Sahelian Dust Variabilty (1959–2014)

Gregory S. Jenkins, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and M. Gueye

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

9A.5

Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to North African Dust Aerosol under ENSO Variability: Dynamics, Variability and Feedbacks in NASA Models and Observations

Asha Jordan, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik, A. Gnanadesikan, D. Kim, M. Chin, and H. S. Badr

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

9A.6

Impact of Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols on East African Rainfall

Claire Scannell, UKMO, Exeter, UK; and B. B. B. Booth

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part I

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division; Patrick Taylor, NASA LRC

8:30 AM

9B.2

Decomposing Shortwave Radiative Flux Variability in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions Using CERES Observations

Norman G. Loeb, NASA, Hampton, VA; and H. Wang, S. Kato, and T. Wong

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

9B.3

Impact of Inclusion of Realistic Surface Spectral Emissivity in the Global Climate Model on the Simulated Arctic Climate Mean States and Climate Changes

Xianglei Huang, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and X. Chen, M. G. Flanner, P. Yang, D. Feldman, and C. Kuo

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

9B.4

Explaining Arctic Amplification: The Critical Role of the Barents–Kara Seas

Patrick C. Taylor, NASA, Hampton, VA; and R. C. Boeke

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9B.5

Temperature Inversions in the Arctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer in the CESM Large Ensemble

Daniel Watkins, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and J. Hutchings

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

9B.6

The Global Climatic Response to Projected Transient Sea Ice Loss

Michael Alexander, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Sun

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 10B

Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part II

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division; Patrick Taylor, NASA LRC

10:30 AM

10B.1

Variability in Planetary Wave Activity over the 20th Century

Amanda H. Lynch, Brown Univ., Providence, RI; and A. Zsom

10:45 AM

10B.2

How Robust Is the Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss in Isolation?

Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and S. E. Hay, R. Blackport, K. E. McCusker, and T. Oudar

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Themed Joint Session 7

Machine Learning and Climate Studies

Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern University; Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California

10:30 AM

TJ7.1

Deep Learning for Detecting Extreme Weather and Climate Patterns (Core Science Keynote)

William Collins, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and M. Prabhat, E. Racah, Y. Liu, K. Kashinath, C. Pal, J. C. Biard, K. E. Kunkel, M. Wehner, and T. O'Brien

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

TJ7.2

Super-Resolution and Deep Learning for Climate Downscaling

Thomas Vandal, Northeastern Univ., Cambridge, MA; and A. R. Ganguly

Recorded Presentation

TJ7.3

Machine Learning Models for Climate Data

11:30 AM

TJ7.4

Automated Detection of Fronts Using a Deep Learning Algorithm

Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC; and J. C. Biard and E. Racah

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

TJ7.5

Computational Models for Detection and Analysis of Synoptic-Scale Ice Storm Patterns

Ranjini Swaminathan, Central Climate Science Center at Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and K. Hayhoe

Recorded Presentation

Session 10A

African Climate Variations and Change—Part II

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Wassila Thiaw, CPC; Rory Gordon John Fitzpatrick, Univ. of Leeds

10:30 AM

10A.1

An IR Sounding–Based Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer in North Africa

Stephen D. Nicholls, Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and K. I. Mohr

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

10A.2

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

Natalie Thomas, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

10A.3

On the Coherence of Sahel Region under Different Emissions Scenarios

Hamada S. Badr, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik

10A.4

Intraseasonal Variability and Predictability over the West Equatorial Africa during the Rainy Season.

11:15 AM

10A.4A

Why Do Global Climate Models Struggle to Represent Low-Level Clouds in the West African Summer Monsoon?

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. Kniffka, G. Pante, and L. Hannak

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

10A.5

Observed Trends in Dry Season Convection over the Congo Basin Using Multiple Satellite Datasets

Ajay Raghavendra, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and L. Zhou and Y. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

10A.6

Re-Examining the ITCZ as a Control on Rainfall and Its Variability in Equatorial Africa

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and A. H. Fink, C. C. Funk, and T. A. Vaughan

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 11

Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Variability and Change

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California

11:00 AM

11.1

The Role of the Stratosphere in Setting the Timescales of the Tropospheric Circulation Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases

Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and L. M. Polvani

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

11.2

Snow-(N)AO Teleconnection and Its Modulation By the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation

Yannick Peings, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and H. Douville, J. Colin, D. Saint-Martin, and G. Magnusdottir

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

11.3

Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange

Jordan Benjamin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. Abalos and A. de la Camara

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

11.4

Stratospheric and Tropospheric Contributions to the Flux of Moist Static Energy across 70ºN

Brian E. J. Rose, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Cardinale

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Lecture 2

2018 Horton Lecture

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM

L2.1

Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)

Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 12A

African Climate Variations and Change—Part III

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas; Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

1:30 PM

12A.1

Climatology and Seasonal Forecasting Analysis from a New Multi-Decade High-Resolution Rainfall and Temperature Dataset for Rwanda

Asher Siebert, IRI, Palisades, NY; and T. Dinku, F. Vuguziga, A. Twahirwa, D. Kagabo, S. J. Mason, A. W. Robertson, J. DelCorral, and R. Cousin

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

12A.2

Modeling Hydrological Regimes of the Logone-Lake Chad River Basin, Africa under CMIP5 GCMs Projections

Asmita Murumkar, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and M. T. Durand, B. Mark, A. Fernández, M. Moritz, I. Hamilton, S. Phang, S. Laborde, and A. Shastry

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

12A.3

Seasonal and Long-term Variability in the Atmospheric Moisture Budget and Transport over East Africa

Ross Maidment, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. E. Demory and E. Black

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

12A.4

The Mechanisms Associated with Ethiopian Belg Subseasonal Rainfall Variability

Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and E. B. Biratu

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

12A.5

Variability of Interannual-to-Decadal Teleconnections Observed over the Greater Horn of Africa in the 20th Century

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and T. K. Bahaga and P. Knippertz

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

12A.6

Remote Drivers of Interannual Variability of the East African Long Rains

Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and S. F. Milton

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

12A.7

Trend and Periodicity of Drought over Ethiopia

Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Bahir Dar Univ., Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

3:15 PM

12A.8

Climate Change at the Margin in East Africa

Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and A. Giannini, R. Seager, and N. Vigaud

3:30 PM

12A.9

Causes of Uncertainty in Projections of East African Rainfall Change

Dave Rowell, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Chadwick

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part I

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State Univ.

1:30 PM

12B.1

Predictability Studies of Atmospheric Rivers Using Adjoint Sensitivity

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

12B.2

Historical Return Periods of the Strongest Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast

Michael Dettinger, USGS, Carson City, NV; and F. M. Ralph and J. J. Rutz

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

12B.3

High-Resolution Model-Based Investigation of Moisture Transport into the Pacific Northwest during a Strong Atmospheric River Event

Michael Mueller, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and K. Mahoney and M. Hughes

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

12B.4

Attributing Seasonal Montane Snowfall Patterns to Atmospheric Rivers Using Different Detection Methods

Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and S. A. Margulis, B. Guan, D. E. Waliser, and P. J. Neiman

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

12B.5

Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and V. Espinoza, B. Guan, F. M. Ralph, and D. A. Lavers

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

12B.6

Multi-Model Assessment of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Atmospheric River Prediction Skill

Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, F. Vitart, F. M. Ralph, and A. Goodman

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

12B.7

Tropical Plumes in the UTLS and Their Connection to Atmospheric Rivers

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

12B.8

Mesoscale Processes in Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Southern California

Forest Cannon, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, R. Weihs, and D. P. Lettenmaier

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

12B.9

Statistical Relationship between the Atmospheric River and Extratropical Cyclone

Yanjuan Guo, Texas A&M Univ., Corpus Christi, TX; and T. Shinoda, B. Guan, and D. E. Waliser

Session 12C

Jay Fein's Legacy—Part I

Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF; Eric DeWeaver, NSF

1:30 PM

12C.1

Jay Fein's Legacy at NSF (Invited Presentation)

Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF, Alexandria, VA

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

12C.2

Jay Fein and His Key Roles in Demonstrating Radio Occultation in Earth's Atmosphere–GPS–MET and Cosmic (Invited Presentation)

Richard A. Anthes, UCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.5 MB)

2:15 PM

12C.3

The Monsoon Expeditions: The Legacy of Jay S. Fein (Invited Presentation)

Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

12C.4

Jay Fein's Affair with the Indian Monsoon: From MONEX to Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Monsoons (Invited Presentation)

Jagadish Shukla, George Mason Univ./COLA, Fairfax, VA

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

12C.5

Community Climate Modeling with Jay Fein (Invited Presentation)

Jeffrey T. Kiehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 3

Poster Session III

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

941

Climate Warming Impact on Flood Discharges Time in Some Tigris River Tributaries in Iraq

Thair Mahmood Altaiee, Mosul Univ., Mosul, Iraq

942

Optimizing WRF as a Regional Climate Downscaling Tool for Hydro-Climatological Applications in the Eastern Nile Basin

Mahmoud Osman, JHU, Baltimore, MD

Synoptic and Climatological Analysis of the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane

943

Changes in West African Monsoon Precipitation: The Competition between Large-scale Dynamics and Local Thermodynamics

Weipeng Zheng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and P. Braconnot, M. Gaetani, and K. Izumi

944

Improvements in the Precipitation Distribution of West Africa with a Convection-Permitting Simulation at Climate Scales

Ségolène Berthou, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and E. J. Kendon, M. J. Roberts, D. Rowell, and R. Stratton

945

HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Deciisons for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa

John H. Marsham, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, U.K.; and D. Rowell, B. E. Evans, R. J. Cornforth, F. H. M. Semazzi, R. L. Wilby, and T. HyCRISTAL team

946

The CP4 Africa Control Simulation—An Initial Assessment of the Run

Rachel Stratton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and C. Senior, S. Vosper, and M. Vellinga

947

Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens

Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and R. James, R. Washington, B. Abiodun, G. Kay, J. Mutemi, W. Pokam, N. C. G. Hart, G. Artan, and C. Senior

948

Sahel Decadal Rainfall Variability and the Role of Model Horizontal Resolution

Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, M. Mizielinski, M. E. Demory, R. Schiemann, J. Strachan, and C. L. Bain

949

Rainy Season Failure in West Africa: Projected Changes and Sources of Uncertainty

Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Bacci and A. Giannini

950

South Asian Summer Monsoon: SST-Based Predictability and Real-Time Forecast of the 2016 and 2017 Monsoon

Agniv Sengupta, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam and A. Ruiz-Barradas

951

Effects of Tropical Expansion on Regional Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure

Daniel F. Schmidt, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and K. M. Grise

952

Regional and Seasonal Characteristics of the Recent Expansion of the Tropics in the Northern Hemisphere

Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. M. Davis and P. W. Staten

953

Analysis of Hurricane Noel (2007) Simulated by Numerical Weather Prediction Models

954

Increased in Dry Season Length Over the Congo

Yan Jiang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Zhou, W. Hua, and A. Raghavendra

955

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Eddy Activities in the South China Sea

Hans Von Storch, Helmholtz Center, Geesthacht, Germany; and M. Zhang

Handout (516.4 kB)

West African Monsoon Decadal Variability and Surface-Related Forcings: Second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

956

Annual Cycle of the Main Northern Extratropical Modes of Circulation Variability in Different Reanalyses

Lucie Pokorna, Faculty of Science, Charles Univ., Prague, Czech Republic; and R. Beranova and R. Huth

Handout (1.8 MB)

957

Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Waves under Global Warming

Ibourahima Kebe, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

959

Assessment of NMME Skill over Southwest Asia and Horn of Africa

Ryan D Smith, U.S. Air Force, Asheville, NC; and R. M. Randall, R. B. Kiess, and J. P. Anthony

960

Impact of Climate Variability and Climate Change over Future Irrigation Requirment

Adrajow Admasu Ferede, National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

961

Statistical Relationships between Large-Scale Oscillation Phenomena and Mesoscale Atmospheric Conditions over Central/Eastern Europe and Their Representation in CMIP5 General Circulation Models

Judit Bartholy, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Martonvasar, Hungary; and E. Kristof and R. Pongracz

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

962

Precipitation Forecasts and Their Relationship with Large-Scale Tropical Dynamics in the GFS and IFS

Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and G. N. Kiladis

963

The Modulation of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall by Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. N. Kiladis and J. Dias

Poster 964 has been moved. New paper number 14A.3A

965

Temporal and Spatial Climate Variability and Trends over Abay (Upper Blue Nile) River Basin

Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Bahir Dar Univ., Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

966

An Extreme Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Event in 2016: Dynamics and Predictability

Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and B. Lu

967

Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking over the North Atlantic during Boreal Summer: Climatology and Impacts

Breanna L. Zavadoff, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

968

Widening of the Regional Meridional Overturning Circulation

Paul W. Staten, Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN; and K. M. Grise

969

Characterizing Dry and Wet Spell in a Changing Climate in the Middle Belt Region of Nigeria

970

Interannual Variability of Sub-Saharan Africa Rainfall in a High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model

971

A Sub-Seasonal Forecast Multi-System for Extreme Events Prediction

Stefano Materia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and Á. Muñoz and S. Gualdi

972

Frequency and Predictability of North American and European Heat Waves

Szandra A. Peter, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

973

Performance Evaluation of a Regional Climate Model in Simulating Rainfall over Indonesia

Ganesha T Chandrasa, Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia; and A. Montenegro

974

All India Monsoon Rainfall Variability:Large-Scale Circulations, QBO, and ENSO Impacts and Processes

Remata S. Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri and M. Fadavi

975

Evaluation of Subseasonal Prediction Skill Using the Global FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model

Shan Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, S. Benjamin, B. W. Green, and G. Grell

976

Austral Summer Southern Africa Precipitation Extremes Forced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole

Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Cheng

977

Diurnal Cycle of West African Westerly Jet and Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Sahel

Weiran Liu, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy

978

A Combined Hierarchical/Consensus Reagonalization Approach to Aid Interpretation of Circulation-Induced Climate Change in Bolivia

Azar Mohammad Abadi, Univ. of Nebraska−Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe and R. Oglesby

979

How Well Does ERA-Interim Capture ITCZ Characteristics and Precipitation?

Corey Storm Howard, Texas A&M, College Station, TX; and A. D. Rapp and K. R. Wodzicki

980

Assessing the Sources of Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictability in the Climate Forecast System Version 2

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and D. E. Miller

981

Changes in Ocean Temperature in the Barents Sea in the 21st Century

Zhenxia Long, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada

982

Pushing LES and GCM Models to Higher Resolutions to Improve Climate Bias of Low Clouds when Compared with Tethered Balloons Measurements and Retrievals over the North Slope of Alaska

Erika L. Roesler, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; and D. Dexheimer, B. R. Hillman, L. Dennis, and M. McChesney

983

The Role of Ocean and Atmosphere Heat Transport in the Arctic Amplification

Rosa M. Vargas, UCAR/NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. O. Kwon and H. Furey

984

Greenland Near-Surface Air Temperature Datasets: What Should We Use to Evaluate CMIP6?

J. E. Jack Reeves Eyre, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng

Handout (8.1 MB)

985

Interactions between Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover and the Troposphere Circumpolar Vortex

Gwangyong Choi, Jeju National Univ., Jeju-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. A. Robinson

986

Exploring Connections between Arctic Sea Ice and Tornado Activity in the United States

Robert J. Trapp, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and K. Hoogewind

987A

Developing Capabilities for Analysis in the Arctic within the NOAA NWS Local Climate Analysis Tool

Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. E. Churma, F. Horsfall, M. Coulman, and J. C. Meyers

987

A Study of Subseasonal Surface Temperature Predictability

988

Drivers of 2016 Record Arctic Warmth Assessed Using Climate Simulations Subjected to Factual and Counterfactual Forcing

Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and L. Sun, D. Allured, M. Hoerling, L. Smith, and D. Murray

989

Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice in the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and M. L'Heureux, Q. Zhang, and Q. Ding

990

Effects of Greenland Anticyclone Magnitude and Persistence on Spring Sea Ice Melt in the North Atlantic

Thomas J. Ballinger, Texas State Univ., San Marcos, TX; and E. Hanna, R. J. Hall, T. E. Cropper, J. A. Miller, M. H. Ribergaard, J. E. Overland, and J. L. Høyer

991

Understanding Internal Climate Variability and the Upper Limit of 2°C Increase of Global Mean Surface Temperature

Seunghwon Hyun, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

992

The Impact of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers on the Arctic Surface Energy Budget and Sea Ice Growth in Fall and Winter

Bradley M. Hegyi, NASA, Hampton, VA; and P. C. Taylor

993

Hemispheric Asymmetry of Global Warming Explained by a Conceptual Model

Christoph S Funke, IARC, Bethesda, MD; and V. A. Alexeev

994

Utility of the United States National Ice Center's Interactive Multi-Sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System Data to View Arctic Variability

Sofia M. Montalvo, NESDIS, Suitland, MD; and K. Neugent, K. Nohe, D. P. McCormick, S. R. Helfrich, K. Berberich, and R. Lane

Manuscript (43.4 kB)

995

Classifying the Tropospheric Precursor Patterns of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Ming Bao, Nanjing Univeristy, Nanjing, China; and X. Tan, D. L. Hartmann, and P. Ceppi

996

Impact of Different Processes on Tropical Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor as Simulated by Chemistry–Climate Models

Kevin M Smalley, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, S. Bekki, M. Deushi, M. Marchand, O. Morgenstern, D. A. Plummer, K. Shibata, Y. Yamashita, and G. Zeng

Handout (11.4 MB)

997

Quantifying Stratospheric Polar Vortex Trends during the 20th and 21st Centuries

Carly Narotsky, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and J. C. Furtado

998

Decadal Data Sets and Decadal Trends: Considerations Based on Radio Occultation Observation

Anthony J. Mannucci, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. O. Ao, P. Vergados, O. P. Verkhoglyadova, and B. A. Iijima

999

New Nuclear Winter Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4)

Joshua L. Coupe, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and C. G. Bardeen, A. Robock, and O. B. Toon

1000

Differential Temperature Trends across Elevation within the "Warming Hole" of the Southeast United States

Ryan P. Shadbolt, Northland College, Ashland, WI; and A. W. Ellis

Manuscript (230.4 kB)

Handout (506.2 kB)

1001

Discussion of Recent Cyclical Temperature Trends Detected in the United States

Adam Theisen, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data Quality Office/CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Sisterson

1002

Regional Climate Impacts of Irrigation during the 2012 Central Plains Drought

Jun Wang, Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and C. Aegerter and J. Zeng

1003

Projected Sea Surface Temperatures over the 21st Century: Changes in the Mean, Varaibility, and Extremes

Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Scott

1004

Impacts of Internal Variability on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Large Ensemble Simulations

Aiguo Dai, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. E. Bloecker

1005

High Risk of Unprecedented U.K. Rainfall

Vikki Thompson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Eade, N. Dunstone, A. A. Scaife, and D. M. Smith

1006

Increased Frequency of Extreme Heat Waves over Texas Area Tied to the Amplification of Pacific Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient

Kaiqiang Deng, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China

1007

Atmospheric River Activity in a 4xCO₂ Climate Simulation

Jessica Solomon, Humboldt State Univ., Arcata, CA; and S. W. Powell, J. W. Whitaker, and E. D. Maloney

1008

United States Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Phenomenology, Large-Scale Organization, Physical Mechanisms, and Model Representation

1009

Simulation of Atmospheric Rivers: Dynamical Modulation and Resolution Dependence

Erik T. Swenson, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and J. Lu and D. M. Straus

1010

Atmospheric River Importance to Extratropical Climate and Hydrology

Deanna L. Nash, ; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, H. Ye, and F. M. Ralph

1011

Water Vapor Budget in Atmospheric Rivers: A Multi-Model Evaluation

Bin Guan, Univ. of California, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and F. M. Ralph

1012

Simulation and Projection of Daily Precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin Based on Multi-Model Dynamical Downscaling and Four Bias Correction Methods

Lianyi Guo, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and Z. Jiang and L. Li

1013

Typhoon Season Extreme Rain Characteristics of Taiwan

Alex Henny, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. E. Howarth, C. D. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

1014

Understanding the Role of Air–Sea Interaction on Extreme Rainfall in Aquaplanet and Earth-like CESM

Amy Clement, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. J. Benedict and B. Medeiros

1015

Changes in the Dynamics of a Blocking Event with Warming

Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson

1016

Floridian Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation. Part II: Future Climate Projections

Ajay Raghavendra, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and S. R. Cloutier-Bisbee, S. M. Milrad, and A. Dai

Handout (9.7 MB)

1017

An Examination of an Inland-Penetrating Atmospheric River Flood Event under Potential Future Thermodynamic Conditions

Kelly Mahoney, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. Swales, M. Mueller, M. Alexander, K. M. Malloy, and M. Hughes

1018

Atmospheric Rivers: Water Extremes that Shape Our Weather and Climate

Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA

1019

Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast United States: 1979–2014

Macy E. Howarth, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. Henny, C. D. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

1020

The Characteristics of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers during Water Year 2017 and Northern California's Record-Breaking Precipitation

Chad W. Hecht, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, J. F. Kalansky, and B. K. Kawzenuk

1021

The Relationship between Extratropical Cyclone and Atmospheric River over the Northeastern Pacific and U.S. West Coast

Zhenhai Zhang, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, D. Cayan, and M. Zheng

Manuscript (22.5 kB)

1022

Best Practices of Building and Being a Trusted Climate Communicator

Richard L. Thoman Jr., NOAA, Fairbanks, AK; and B. E. Mayes, K. V. Matthews, D. R. Kluck, J. Crouch, and D. S. Arndt

1023

Evaluation of Winter Precipitation Forecast over Northern America and Its Relation with Large-scale Climate Variability in GEOS5 Seasonal Forecast System

Zhao Li, SSAI/GMAO-NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Molod and S. D. Schubert

Joint Poster Session 6

Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign; Ben Lintner, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey; Yolande L. Serra, JISAO

887

Preliminary Foundings from an Experimental Hydrometeorological Network in the North American Monsoon Region

Carlos M. Minjarez-Sosa, Univ. de Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico; and S. Villegas and G. Cuevas-Figueroa

888

Impact of Initial Estimates on Convective-Permitting Simulations during the North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013

James M. Moker Jr., The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. F. Arellano Jr., C. L. Castro, Y. L. Serra, and D. K. Adams

889

A Tale of Seven Hurricanes and Their Interaction with the Monsoon: A Modeling Study

Dorothea Ivanova, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Prescott, AZ

890

Contribution of Extreme Convective Storms to Rainfall in South America

Kristen Lani Rasmussen, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Zuluaga and R. A. Houze Jr.

891

The Influence of CO₂ Forcing on the North American Monsoon Moisture Surges and the Intensity of Precipitation in the Southwestern United States in a 50-km-Horizontal Resolution General Circulation Model

Salvatore Pascale, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Kapnick, S. Bordoni, and T. L. Delworth

892

The North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017

David K. Adams, Univ. Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and E. R. Vivoni, B. R. Lintner, C. Minjarez Sosa, Y. L. Serra, A. Granados, A. Vázquez Galvez, J. C. Rodriguez, V. Verduzco, E. R. Pérez Ruiz, F. Barffuson, M. Grutter, J. S. Haase, H. Liang, E. Cabral Cano, D. J. Gochis, E. Yépez, A. Robles Morua, A. Bezanilla, R. Del Rio Salas, A. I. Quintanar, C. Ochoa Moya, and L. Salazar-Tlaczani

Joint Poster Session 8

Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Benjamin Cook, NASA GISS

919

Optimal Application of Basin Management Practices in Geumho River for Reducing Effect of Climate Change

Yoonkyung Park, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Choi, W. Cha, O. Lee, and S. Kim

Manuscript (66.9 kB)

920

An Analysis of Soil Moisture and Vegetation Conditions during a Period of Rapid Subseasonal Oscillations between Drought and Pluvials over Texas during 2015

Yafang Zhong, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madision, WI; and J. A. Otkin and E. D. Hunt

921

Future IDF Curves in Korea Using Scale-Invariance Technique under AR5 RCP Scenarios

Sangdan Kim, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Park and J. Choi

Manuscript (160.6 kB)

922

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Widespread Flooding Throughout the Southeastern and Northeastern United States in Late January 2010

Todd Grote, Indiana Univ. Southeast, New Albany, IN

923

Study on the Improvement of Disaster Prevention Target Rainfall for Disaster Prevention in South Korea

Youngseok Song, Hanseo Univ., Seosan-Si, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Lee, Y. Song, J. Lee, and M. Park

Manuscript (144.5 kB)

924

Changes of Hydroclimatic Intensity over East Asia Projected by Multiregional Climate Model Ensemble under RCP Scenarios.

Ahn Joong-Bae, Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. Yeon-Woo and I. Eun-Soon

926

Impacts of the Surface Heterogeneities on Local Climate in the Amazonian Subbasin of Ji-Paraná Using the Eta/Noah-MP Model

Isabel L. Pilotto, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil; and D. A. Rodriguez and S. C. Chou

928

Changes in Spatial Extent of Extreme Rainfall Events Area in the Northeastern United States Using High-Resolution Gridded Datasets

Thomas Favata, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

929

The Tree-Ring Drought Atlas Portal: A Suite of Research and Education Web Tools for Gridded Drought Reconstructions Over the Past 500–2000 Years

Dorian Burnette, Univ. of Memphis, Memphis, TN

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

98th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 13A

Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation—Part I: The Hadley Circulation

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia

8:30 AM

13A.1

The Role of Natural Climate Variability in Recent Tropical Expansion

Robert J. Allen, Univ. of California, Riverside, CA

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13A.2

Energetic Perspectives on the Changing Tropical Circulation (Invited Presentation)

Nicole Feldl, Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA; and Y. T. Hwang and S. Bordoni

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13A.3

Changes to the Global Mean Meridional Circulation: An Isentropic Perspective

Chris Lucas, BOM, Melbourne, Australia

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

13A.4

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Regimes in MERRA Reanalyses Using an ISCCP Simulator

Justin P. Stachnik, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and C. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part II

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California, Irvine

8:30 AM

13B.1

Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales

Cory F. Baggett, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, and B. D. Mundhenk

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13B.2

The Development of Persistent Atmospheric Rivers

Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and G. Magnusdottir

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13B.3

Mesoscale Observation and Modeling of the Atmospheric River during CalWater2

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle, J. Cummings, P. G. Black, C. W. Fairall, R. Branch, and A. T. Jessup

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

13B.4

Verification of NCEP–GFS Ensemble Forecasts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers during Winter 2016–2017

Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH

Recorded Presentation

Session 13C

Jay Fein's Legacy—Part II

Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF; Eric DeWeaver, NSF

8:30 AM

13C.1

Carbon Climate Interactions (Invited Presentation)

Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13C.2

Advances in Multi-Scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (Invited Presentation)

David Randall, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 48

Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign; Ben Lintner, Rutgers, State Univ. of New Jersey; Yolande L. Serra, JISAO

8:30 AM

J48.1

An Interhemispheric View of the American Monsoons: Vegetation and Moisture Transport Processes (Invited Talk)

Paola A. Arias, Univ. de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; and J. A. Martinez, S. C. Vieira, and J. C. Villegas

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J48.2

Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America (Invited Talk)

Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and L. Trenary, K. Pegion, B. Cash, T. DelSole, and J. L. Kinter III

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J48.3

The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States (Invited Presentation)

Christopher L. Castro, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and H. I. Chang, D. K. Adams, T. Luong, T. M. Lahmers, and C. Ochoa-Moya

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.3 MB)

9:15 AM

J48.4

"The Paroxysmal Precipitation of the Desert": Flash Floods in the Southwestern United States

James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, J. Signell, L. Yang, E. Morin, and D. C. Goodrich

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 14A

Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation Part II: Precipitation/ITCZ

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Paul W. Staten, Indiana Univ.

10:30 AM

14A.1

Impacts of Deep and Shallow Convection on the Gross Moist Stability

Hien Xuan Bui, National Central Univ., Taiwan, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; and J. Y. Yu

10:45 AM

14A.2

Variability of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean: Historical Simulations and Future Changes with the New High-Resolution Arpege AGCM

Romain Pilon, Météo-France, Fort-de-France, Martinique; and F. Chauvin and P. Palany

Paper 14A.3 has been moved. Now 7B.9A

11:00 AM

14A.3A

Toward Improving Tropical Rainfall Forecast Skill: Do Equatorial Waves Matter?

Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich, G. N. Kiladis, and M. Gehne

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14A.4

The Annual Cycle of the Tropical Rain Belts and Its Changes under CO₂ Quadrupling in the TRACMIP Ensemble

Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and J. Scheff

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14A.5

Understanding Precipitation Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Forcing in the Tropics (Invited Presentation)

Jie He, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. C. Johnson, G. A. Vecchi, A. T. Wittenberg, and B. P. Kirtman

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14A.6

Observed Changes in ITCZ Extent and the Relationship to Midtropospheric Dry Layers

Anita D. Rapp, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and K. R. Wodzicki and E. A. Smith

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part III

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan

10:30 AM

14B.1

Extreme Rainfall over Coastal Eastern Asia Arising from Interactions between a Monsoon Gyre, Four Tropical Cyclones, and Mobile Midlatitude Disturbances in Late August 2016

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. P. Papin and A. Bentley

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

14B.2

Identification of Tropical–Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based on Stratospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions and Poleward Moisture Transport

A. J. De Vries, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany; and H. G. Ouwersloot, S. B. Feldstein, M. Riemer, A. M. El Kenawy, M. F. McCabe, and J. Lelieveld

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

14B.3

3-D Moisture Budget of Changes to Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Jesse Norris, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and G. Chen and J. D. Neelin

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14B.4

Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a Long Climate Model Simulation

Arielle J. Catalano, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and A. J. Broccoli, S. Kapnick, and T. Janoski

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14B.5

A Global Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Melanie Bieli, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. L. Evans, and T. M. Hall

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14B.6

North American Extreme Weather in CESM2: Regionally-refined Simulations with Next Generation Dynamical Cores

Colin M. Zarzycki, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Gettelman and S. H. Park

Recorded Presentation

Session 14C

Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part I

Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.

10:30 AM

14C.1

Piers Does Global Photosynthesis

Joe Berry, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

14C.2

Year-to-Year Changes in the Earth System: A Study of the Carbon Cycle using NASA Observations and the GEOS Model

Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Gelaro, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Chatterjee, R. Koster, E. Lee, T. Oda, B. Weir, and F. zeng

11:00 AM

14C.3

Physiological Responses of Tropical Forests to Rising Atmospheric CO₂ as a Driver of Continental Asymmetries in Precipitation Change and Runoff Extremes

James Randerson, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and G. J. Kooperman, B. Langenbrunner, M. S. Pritchard, A. L. S. Swann, F. M. Hoffman, K. Lindsay, and C. D. Koven

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14C.4

NASA Observations and Research to Inform Studies of Partitioning of Carbon Between Atmosphere and Biosphere

Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Science Mission Directorate, Washington, DC; and K. W. Jucks, H. A. Margolis, K. A. Hibbard, and D. Considine

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14C.5

A New NASA Capability to Quantify Regional CO₂ and CH₄ Surface Exchange and Improve Flux Model Performance

G. M. Wolfe, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. A. Hannun, S. R. Kawa, P. A. Newman, T. Hanisco, G. S. Diskin, J. Digangi, J. Nowak, J. D. Barrick, K. L. Thornhill, A. Noormets, R. Vargas, K. L. Clark, and W. P. Kustas

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14C.6

Observing System Simulations for Carbon–Climate Feedbacks

David Schimel, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and P. J. Sellers, L. Ott, and A. Eldering

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

David J. Raymond Symposium Luncheon

Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Lecture 3

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM

L3.1

New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation (Invited Presentation)

Clara Deser, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 15A

Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part I

Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Emily J. Becker, NOAA; Maria K. Flatau, NRL

1:30 PM

15A.1

Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Seasonal Influence of Initialization on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in NCEP CFSv2

Ravi Shukla, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang, J. L. Kinter III, C. S. Shin, and L. Marx

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15A.2

Northern Hemisphere Autumn and Winter Climate Responses to Realistic Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia Snow Anomalies

Qigang Wu, FuDan Univ., Shanghai, China; and Y. Yao and S. Liu

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15A.3

A Simple Definition of Flow Regimes and Its Relationship to High-Impact Weather Events

Eyad H. Atallah, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum, J. Hart, and Y. Low

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15A.4

Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical S2S Forecasts with Weather Types over North America

Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Á. Muñoz, G. A. Vecchi, and R. G. Gudgel

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15A.5

Representation of Teleconnections of Climate Modes in Dyamical Model Forecasts at Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales and Statistical Bridging of Forecasts of Climate Modes and Their Teleconnections

Sarah E. Strazzo, NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. Jia, D. C. Collins, E. J. Becker, J. Gottschalck, A. D. Schepen, and Q. J. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15A.6

Using Sea Surface Height to Examine Air–Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean in Winter

LuAnne Thompson, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part IV

Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan

1:30 PM

15B.1

Floridian Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation. Part I: Observations and Trends

Shealynn Rhoades Cloutier-Bisbee, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and A. Raghavendra and S. M. Milrad

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15B.2

The Great Plains Low-Level Jet in 1.5C and 2C HAPPI Simulations: Implications for Changes in Extreme Climate Events

Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC; and M. J. Barcikowska

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15B.3

An Assessment of Drought Trends in the Contiguous United States Using the Drought Risk Atlas

Curtis J. Riganti, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda and B. Fuchs

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15B.4

Extreme Orographic Precipitation Events in the Central Andes: Examining the Role of Cold Air Intrusion

Masih Eghdami, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; and A. P. Barros

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15B.5

Three Approaches for Statistical Prediction of Non-Gaussian Climate Extremes

Cheng Qian, IAP, Beijing, China; and W. Zhou

2:45 PM

15B.6

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

Samson Hagos, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, Z. Feng, and K. Sakaguchi

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 54

Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part I

Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Jeffrey Basara, Univ. of Oklahoma

1:30 PM

J54.1

An Increasing Trend in the Early Winter Precipitation during Recent Decades Along the Coastal Areas of the Sea of Japan

Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and M. Tomochika

1:45 PM

J54.2

The Role of Synoptic-Scale Circulation in Great Lakes Basin Snow Cover Ablation

Zachary Suriano, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. J. Leathers

2:00 PM

J54.3

Trends in Precipitation and April 1 Snow Water Content in California

David C Curtis, WEST Consultants., Folsom, CA

Recorded Presentation

J54.4

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project

2:15 PM

J54.4A

Storm-Scale Variations of Water Isotopes in the Tropical High Andes

Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and H. Guy, L. B. Perry, E. Burton, S. Arias, N. Quispe, N. Montoya, M. Rado, M. Andrade, R. Winkelman, M. Peñaloza, C. Cooper, and E. Montpellier

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J54.5

The United States Seasonal Drought Atlas: Gridded Cool and Warm Season Moisture Balance Reconstructions from 1400 to 2016

David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and E. Cook, D. Burnette, M. Torbenson, D. Griffin, I. Howard, A. P. Williams, and B. Cook

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J54.6

Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America

Honghai Zhang, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 16

Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part II

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.

2:30 PM

16.1

Piers Sellers’ Unique Perspectives of the Earth from Space

Forrest Hall, Biospheric Sciences Branch

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

16.2

A Perspective on Piers Sellers' Vision for the Greening of Global Models

David Randall, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 17C

Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part III

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.

3:30 PM

17C.1

Landscape-Scale Soil Moisture Heterogeneity and Its Influence on Surface Fluxes at the Jornada LTER Site: Evaluating a New Model Parameterization for Subgrid-Scale Soil Moisture Variability

Ian Baker, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. Prihodko, E. R. Vivoni, and A. S. Denning

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

17C.2

On Subgrid-Scale Variations in Root Zone Moisture and Evapotranspiration

Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

17C.3

The Effect of Global Climate Change on the Seasonal Cycle of the Global Energy Balance

Andrew A. Lacis, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

17C.4

Effect of Climate Change on the Ecohydrology of the Mt. Marsabit Cloud Forest (Northern Kenya)

Sietse O Los, Swansea Univ., Swansea, United Kingdom; and F. A. Street-Perrot, N. J. Loader, and C. Froyd

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

17C.5

32 Years after the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB): Is the Biosphere Still Simple to Model?

Gordon B. Bonan, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 17A

Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part II

Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ.; Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC

3:30 PM

17A.1

Advancing Convective Severe Weather Outlooks into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

Cory F. Baggett, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. N. Zito, K. M. Nardi, S. J. Childs, and E. A. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

17A.2

Strong Relations between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. K. Tippett, A. Kumar, A. H. Butler, L. M. Ciasto, Q. Ding, K. J. Harnos, and N. Johnson

4:00 PM

17A.3

Modulation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the Winter Blocking Activity over the Ural Mountains

Shuanglin Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and X. Zhou and W. A. Robinson

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

17A.4

Effects of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Panama Canal Watershed Precipitation

Steven R. Paton, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC; and R. Stallard

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

17A.5

Joint Influences of the MJO and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on the Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Circulation

Matthew R. Green, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado, E. A. Barnes, M. L'Heureux, L. M. Ciasto, and K. Harnos

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

17A.6

Predictability and Mechanisms of North Atlantic Oscillation Variability—A Signal-to-Noise Paradox

Adam A. Scaife, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, R. Eade, N. Dunstone, C. MacLachlan, L. Hermanson, and R. Comer

Recorded Presentation

Session 17B

Emerging Surprises in Climate Change

Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California

3:30 PM

17B.1

One Drier, One Wetter: A Tale of Two Rainforests

Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and J. khanna

3:45 PM

17B.2

Unexpected Impacts of Global Warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. McColl, and C. Penland

4:00 PM

17B.3

Understanding How Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates Could Increase with Climate Change

Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

17B.4

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming over North America: Structure and Mechanisms

Vishal Ravi, Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and N. Thomas and S. Nigam

4:30 PM

17B.5

Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability in the Ocean on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models

Heather Vazquez, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and R. Burgman

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

17B.6

The United States “Warming Hole”: An Update to 2016 and Application to Equivalent Temperature

Justin Schoof, Southern Illinois Univ., Carbondale, IL; and J. Leonard and T. Ford

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 58

Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part II

Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Benjamin Cook, NASA GISS

3:30 PM

J58.1

Development and Use of Ensemble Hydroclimate Projections in the Columbia Basin: A Practitioner’s Perspective

Erik S. Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR; and O. S. Chegwidden and B. Nijssen

Recorded Presentation

J58.2

Impacts of Land-Cover Change and Irrigation on the Energy and Water Balance in the Lower Mekong Basin

3:45 PM

J58.2A

Changes in Extreme Rainfall Event Frequency in the Northeastern United States Using High-Resolution Gridded Datasets

Griffin S. Mooers, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J58.3

Assessing Future Climate Extremes over the United States Using the rCEI Index

Emily Aiken, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and S. A. Rauscher

4:15 PM

J58.4

Detection and Attribution of the Terrestrial Runoff in the Conterminous United States

Jiafu Mao, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and W. Forbes, W. Fu, X. Shi, D. Ricciuto, M. Jin, and S. C. Kao

4:30 PM

J58.5

Future Projections of Global Drought and Pluvial Event Characteristics

Elinor R. Martin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J58.6

The Effect of Global Warming on Water Availability

Craig R. Ferguson, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY; and M. Pan

Recorded Presentation

« Collapse View

» Expand View

Sunday, 7 January 2018

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

WeatherFest

Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

PL 1

Plenary Session 18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

PL 2

Plenary Session Welcoming Address

Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Atlantic

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Role of Water in Shaping Features of the Climate System

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Pacific

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

L 1

Lecture 2018 Haurwitz Lecture

Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

2018 Haurwitz Lecture

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

The Climate Science Special Report

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

P 1

Poster Session Poster Session I

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Ryan Symposium Reception

Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

The Robert T. Ryan Symposium will conclude with a cocktail reception welcoming symposium attendees, along with Bob's numerous colleagues and former interns from across the weather enterprise. With a short program hosted by symposium co-chair and AMS Fellow Veronica Johnson of WJLA in Washington, D.C., this casual event will honor Bob for his distinguished career, achievements, and contributions to the American Meteorological Society.

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part II

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Convection-Resolving/Eddy-Permitting Climate Modeling

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

J 20

Joint Session Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part I

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Land–atmosphere interactions play a key role in the climate system. The land's role in the weather and climate, its impact on atmospheric means, variability, and feedbacks across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from hours to centuries, for past, present, and future climates has been the subject of much recent exploratory research. The meteorological, hydrological, biophysical, biogeochemical, ecosystem and boundary layer processes that underlie the connections between weather/climate and soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation, snow, and frozen soil, however, are not yet fully understood. The scarcity of relevant observations, the complexity of the underlying processes and feedbacks, and the wide range of scales involved make the necessary investigations challenging. This session focuses on (1) interfaces between weather, climate, ecosystems, and the land branches of the energy, water, and carbon cycles and the impact of land processes on climate variability and change as well as on extreme events (such as droughts and flooding); (2) dynamic, physical, and biogeochemical mechanisms and feedbacks by which the land surface (e.g., soil moisture and temperature, albedo, snow, frozen soil, vegetation) influences surface water and energy balances, atmospheric processes, and climate; (3) short and long-term predictability associated with land–atmosphere–ocean interaction and land initialization (such as soil moisture, soil temperature, snow, etc.); (4) impacts of land-cover and land-use change on climate; (5) land–atmosphere interactions in the context of climate variability and change, and (6) application and analyses of local and large-scale field data and observational networks (such as FLUXNET) and satellite observations for land–atmosphere studies. We welcome papers addressing any of these topics.

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part I

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Climate Sensitivity—Part I

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part II

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

J 24

Joint Session Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part II

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Land–atmosphere interactions play a key role in the climate system. The land's role in the weather and climate, its impact on atmospheric means, variability, and feedbacks across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from hours to centuries, for past, present, and future climates has been the subject of much recent exploratory research. The meteorological, hydrological, biophysical, biogeochemical, ecosystem, and boundary layer processes that underlie the connections between weather/climate and soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation, snow, and frozen soil, however, are not yet fully understood. The scarcity of relevant observations, the complexity of the underlying processes and feedbacks, and the wide range of scales involved make the necessary investigations challenging. This session focuses on (1) interfaces between weather, climate, ecosystems, and the land branches of the energy, water, and carbon cycles and the impact of land processes on climate variability and change as well as on extreme events (such as droughts and flooding); (2) dynamic, physical, and biogeochemical mechanisms and feedbacks by which the land surface (e.g., soil moisture and temperature, albedo, snow, frozen soil, vegetation) influences surface water and energy balances, atmospheric processes, and climate; (3) short and long-term predictability associated with land–atmosphere–ocean interaction and land initialization (such as soil moisture, soil temperature, snow, etc.); (4) impacts of land-cover and land-use change on climate; (5) land–atmosphere interactions in the context of climate variability and change, and (6) application and analyses of local- and large-scale field data and observational networks (such as FLUXNET) and satellite observations for land–atmosphere studies. We welcome papers addressing any of these topics. Please contact the session organizers, Yongkang Xue (yxue@geog.ucla.edu), Randy Koster (randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov), Michael Ek, (michael.ek@noaa.gov), Joseph A. Santanello (joseph.a.santanello@nasa.gov), and Steven Quiring (quiring.10@osu.edu) for additional information.

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Climate Sensitivity—Part II

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Climate Variations on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

J 30

Joint Session Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions—Part III

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Land–atmosphere interactions play a key role in the climate system. The land's role in the weather and climate, its impact on atmospheric means, variability, and feedbacks across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from hours to centuries, for past, present, and future climates has been the subject of much recent exploratory research. The meteorological, hydrological, biophysical, biogeochemical, ecosystem, and boundary layer processes that underlie the connections between weather/climate and soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation, snow, and frozen soil, however, are not yet fully understood. The scarcity of relevant observations, the complexity of the underlying processes and feedbacks, and the wide range of scales involved make the necessary investigations challenging. This session focuses on (1) interfaces between weather, climate, ecosystems, and the land branches of the energy, water, and carbon cycles and the impact of land processes on climate variability and change as well as on extreme events (such as droughts and flooding); (2) dynamic, physical, and biogeochemical mechanisms and feedbacks by which the land surface (e.g., soil moisture and temperature, albedo, snow, frozen soil, vegetation) influences surface water and energy balances, atmospheric processes, and climate; (3) short- and long-term predictability associated with land–atmosphere–ocean interaction and land initialization (such as soil moisture, soil temperature, snow, etc.); (4) impacts of land-cover and land-use change on climate; (5) land–atmosphere interactions in the context of climate variability and change, and (6) application and analyses of local- and large-scale field data and observational networks (such as FLUXNET) and satellite observations for land–atmosphere studies. We welcome papers addressing any of these topics. Please contact the session organizers, Yongkang Xue (yxue@geog.ucla.edu), Randy Koster (randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov), Michael Ek, (michael.ek@noaa.gov), Joseph A. Santanello (joseph.a.santanello@nasa.gov), and Steven Quiring (quiring.10@osu.edu) for additional information.

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Structure and Evolution of Climate Teleconnections in Observations & Simulations

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

We encourage all attendees to take the opportunity to grab a snack and coffee and spend this extended afternoon break networking with colleagues and viewing the hundreds of posters on display in the poster hall. Poster displays are grouped by conference and change each day.

P 2

Poster Session Poster Session II

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

JP 3

Joint Poster Session Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Land–atmosphere interactions play a key role in the climate system. The land's role in the weather and climate—its impact on atmospheric means, variability, and feedbacks across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from hours to centuries, for past, present, and future climates—has been the subject of much recent exploratory research. The meteorological, hydrological, biophysical, biogeochemical, ecosystem and boundary layer processes that underlie the connections between weather/climate and soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation, snow, and frozen soil, however, are not yet fully understood. The scarcity of relevant observations, the complexity of the underlying processes and feedbacks, and the wide range of scales involved make the necessary investigations challenging. This session focuses on (1) interfaces between weather, climate, ecosystems, and the land branches of the energy, water, and carbon cycles and the impact of land processes on climate variability and change as well as on extreme events (such as droughts and flooding); (2) dynamic, physical, and biogeochemical mechanisms and feedbacks by which the land surface (e.g., soil moisture and temperature, albedo, snow, frozen soil, vegetation) influences surface water and energy balances, atmospheric processes, and climate; (3) short- and long-term predictability associated with land–atmosphere–ocean interaction and land initialization (such as soil moisture, soil temperature, snow, etc.); (4) impacts of land-cover and land-use change on climate; (5) land–atmosphere interactions in the context of climate variability and change, and (6) application and analyses of local- and large-scale field data and observational networks (such as FLUXNET) and satellite observations for land–atmosphere studies. We welcome papers addressing any of these topics. Please contact the session organizers, Yongkang Xue (yxue@geog.ucla.edu), Randy Koster (randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov), Michael Ek (michael.ek@noaa.gov), Joseph A. Santanello (joseph.a.santanello@nasa.gov), and Steven Quiring (quiring.10@osu.edu) for additional information.

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Peter J. Webster Symposium Banquet

Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

African Climate Variations and Change—Part I

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part I

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10B

Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part II

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

TJ 7

Themed Joint Session Machine Learning and Climate Studies

Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10A

African Climate Variations and Change—Part II

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Variability and Change

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

L 2

Lecture 2018 Horton Lecture

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12A

African Climate Variations and Change—Part III

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

12B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part I

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

12C

Jay Fein's Legacy—Part I

Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

P 3

Poster Session Poster Session III

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

JP 6

Joint Poster Session Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

The North and South American monsoons are of vital importance for regional water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. Observations and modeling are the cornerstones of research efforts aimed at improving our understanding of the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the American monsoons and will ultimately lead to improved prediction of these systems. In this session, we invite papers on all aspects of variability and predictability of the North and South American monsoons. Papers including the role of low-level jets and associated transports of water vapor, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction, the role of land surface processes in the evolution of the American monsoons, mechanisms for the influence of MJO on monsoonal variability, interhemispheric effects, observational campaigns, and modeling efforts are especially welcome.

JP 8

Joint Poster Session Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Owing to changes in the Earth’s global climate, regional hydrologic components of the water cycle including precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) are changing in terms of their mean values and associated variability. Given hydrologic extremes at local to global scales are predicted to occur more frequently and atmospheric demand on terrestrial surface moisture expected to increase, knowledge of the cumulative effects of these shifts on hydroclimate and regional water resources is greatly needed. Further, with water availability and growing scarcity of critical importance to human society, increased knowledge into changes in regional water resources such as snow cover, groundwater storage and soil moisture, and sources of regional hydroclimate variability are critical. As such, this session will bring together presentations that focus on the impacts of a changing climate on the variability of hydrological processes on the regional scale. Submissions are encouraged on all topics related to improving our understanding of natural and anthropogenic impacts on regional hydroclimate variability across the world. This includes studies using process-based models, empirical analyses, and investigations of the paleoclimate record. In keeping with the theme of the meeting, we also encourage those presentations highlighting innovative approaches toward communication and coproduction of knowledge between researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers.

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

98th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

13A

Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation—Part I: The Hadley Circulation

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

13B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part II

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

13C

Jay Fein's Legacy—Part II

Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

J 48

Joint Session Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

The North and South American monsoons are of vital importance for regional water resources, agriculture and ecosystems. Observations and modeling are the cornerstones of research efforts aimed at improving our understanding of the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the American monsoons and will ultimately lead to improved prediction of these systems. In this session, we invite papers on all aspects of variability and predictability of the North and South American monsoons. Papers including the role of low-level jets and associated transports of water vapor, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction, the role of land surface processes in the evolution of the American monsoons, mechanisms for the influence of MJO on monsoonal variability, interhemispheric effects, observational campaigns, and modeling efforts are especially welcome.

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

14A

Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation Part II: Precipitation/ITCZ

Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

14B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part III

Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

14C

Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part I

Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

David J. Raymond Symposium Luncheon

Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

L 3

Lecture Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

15A

Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part I

Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

15B

Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part IV

Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

J 54

Joint Session Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part I

Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part II

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

17C

Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part III

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

17A

Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part II

Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

17B

Emerging Surprises in Climate Change

Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

J 58

Joint Session Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part II

Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

» Expand View

Joint Session 58 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Sunday, 7 January 2018

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Sunday, 7 January 2018

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018