Joint Session 58 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Kerry H. Cook , Univ. of Texas ; Gudrun Magnusdottir , Univ. of California

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 7 January 2018

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1A
Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate 
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ.; Geeta G. Persad, Carnegie Institution for Science
8:45 AM
1A.1
Aerosol Impact on Seasonal Prediction Using FIM-Chem-iHYCOM Coupled Model
Shan Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell and L. Zhang

Recording files available
Session 1B
Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Atlantic 
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas
8:45 AM
1B.1
Loosening the AMOC's Grip on the Atlantic Climate (Invited Presentation)
Amy Clement, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. Lozier and M. Cane
9:15 AM
1B.3
Decadal Variability and Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Rosie Eade, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and A. A. Scaife, D. M. Smith, and H. L. Ren
9:30 AM
1B.4A
9:45 AM
1B.5
Long-Range Dependence in Millennial-Scale Climate Models
James Franke, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. L. Stein, M. Haugen, and E. Moyer

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2A
Role of Water in Shaping Features of the Climate System
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin; Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin
11:00 AM
2A.3
Moist Baroclinic Instability over a Wide Range of Climates: From Periodic Waves to Diabatic Rossby Vortices
Paul A. O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and T. M. Merlis and M. S. Singh
11:15 AM
2A.4
11:45 AM
2A.6
The Sensitivity of the Water Vapor Budget to SSTs and Aerosols within Radiative Equilibrium Experiments
Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant, S. R. Herbener, and S. M. Saleeby
Recording files available
Session 2B
Decadal–Multidecadal Variability (Predictability) in the Pacific 
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas
10:30 AM
2B.1
Characterizing Pacific Ocean Regime Shifts
Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Kumar

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3A
The Climate Science Special Report
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites
2:00 PM
3A.1
3:00 PM
3A.4
The Fourth National Climate Assessment: A Tool for Informing Decisions (Invited Presentation)
Kristin Lewis, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; and D. R. Reidmiller, K. Reeves, and C. Avery
3:30 PM
3A.6
Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability (Invited Presentation)
Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, and A. LeGrande
3:45 PM
3A.7
Recording files available
Session 3B
ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
2:00 PM
3B.1
ENSO and the Response to Global Warming
Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Kohyama
2:30 PM
3B.3
A Two-Year Forecast for a 60–80% Chance of La Niña in 2017–18
Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. M. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G. A. Meehl
3:15 PM
3B.6
Influence of Westerly Wind Events Stochasticity on El Niño Amplitude: The case of 2014 vs. 2015.
Martin PUY, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, P. DiNezio, A. Voldoire, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Madec, C. Menkes, and M. J. McPhaden
3:45 PM
3B.8

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 1
Poster Session I
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
82
Relationships between Subtropical Marine Low Stratiform Cloudiness and Estimated Inversion Strength in CMIP5 Models
Tsuyoshi Koshiro, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Shiotani, H. Kawai, and S. Yukimoto

84
Contributions of Asian Pollution and SST Forcings on Precipitation Change in the North Pacific
Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South)

86
Effect of Aggregated Black Carbon Aging on Their Infrared Absorption and Longwave Radiative Forcing
Yu Wu, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and T. Cheng

87
Effects of Mixing States on the Multiple-Scattering Properties of Black Carbon Aerosols
Tianhai Cheng, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Wu

91
Linear Analysis of Moisture Transport due to Baroclinic Waves
Alfredo N Wetzel, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. M. Smith and S. N. Stechmann

94
Understanding an Intermodal Diversity of the Northwestern Pacific SST in CMIP5 RCP Scenarios
Dong-Won Yi, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

Handout (1.4 MB)

Poster 98 has been moved. New paper number 1B.4A

101
Room for Improvement in Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction
Sang-Ik Shin, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

102
Trying Out a Planetary Ring System for ENSO Prediction
Lucy Hancock, Consultant, Washington, DC; and R. B. Chadwick

Handout (2.2 MB)

105
106
Different Decaying Characteristics for Two Types of El Niño and Their Relationships with the Summer Rainfall in China
Shengjie Chen, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China; and J. He

107
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias
Anna Y. Borovikov, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Kovach and J. Marshak

Handout (4.0 MB)

110
A Case Study of Coastal El Niño Event in Early 2017
Noriyuki Adachi, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Takemura, H. Sato, and K. Kamiguchi
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

112
Examining Diurnal Variability across the Equatorial Pacific Basin associated with ENSO
Tony O. Hurt Jr., Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, Boulder, CO; and N. Sakaeda, J. Dias, and G. N. Kiladis

115
The Relationships Between El Niño Southern Oscillation and Climate Extremes in Paraná River Basin, Brazil
Eliane Barbosa Santos, Brazil; and E. D. Freitas, S. A. A. Rafee, T. Fujita, A. P. Rudke, J. A. Martins, L. D. Martins, R. Hallak, and R. A. F. Souza
Manuscript (888.9 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4B
ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part II
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.; Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California
9:00 AM
4B.3
Factors Determining the Asymmetry of ENSO 
De-Zheng Sun, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Liang and X. Q. Yang
9:15 AM
4B.4
A Hierarchy of Models for ENSO Diversity in Past, Present, and Future
Christina Karamperidou, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Takahashi, B. Dewitte, and R. Xie

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4A
Convection-Resolving/Eddy-Permitting Climate Modeling
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE; Kuan-Man Xu, NASA Langley Research Center
Recording files available
Joint Session 20
Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part I
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
8:45 AM
J20.2
9:15 AM
J20.4
Local versus Remote Soil Moisture Contributions to Near-Surface Temperature Variability
Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, H. Wang, and Y. Chang

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part I
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6A
Climate Sensitivity—Part I
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund; Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas
10:30 AM
6A.1
Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Statistical and Sampling Methods (Invited Presentation)
Alex G. Libardoni, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. E. Forest, A. P. Sokolov, and E. Monier

11:00 AM
6A.3
11:15 AM
6A.4
Climate Feedbacks from Internal Variability
Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. Rugenstein and D. Abbot
11:45 AM
6A.6
Projected Changes in Atmospheric Stability for Japan Using Large Ensemble Simulations
Sho Kawazoe, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Fujita, S. Sugimoto, Y. Okada, S. Watanabe, R. Mizuta, A. Murata, M. Ishii, and H. Kawase

Recording files available
Session 6B
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part II
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.
11:00 AM
6B.3
11:30 AM
6B.5
The PNA Teleconnection in Different Climate States
Yongyun Hu, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Y. Wang
11:45 AM
6B.6
A Modified Persistent Anomaly Index Applied to Present and Future Climates
Rebecca Lee Miller, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and W. A. Robinson
Recording files available
Joint Session 24
Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions, Part II
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
11:00 AM
J24.3
Potential Reemergence of Seasonal Soil Moisture Anomalies in North America
Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Kumar, Y. Wang, and B. Livneh
11:15 AM
J24.4
Moisture Sources for Flash Floods in the United States
Jessica M. Erlingis, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD; and J. J. Gourley
11:45 AM
J24.6
Satellite Observations Revealed Major Biophysical Climate Effects of Grassland–Cropland Conversion over East Asia Drylands
Gensuo Jia, CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and W. Ma and W. Lu

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 7A
Climate Sensitivity—Part II
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Scott Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund; Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas
1:30 PM
7A.1
Estimating Radiative Feedbacks from Stochastic Fluctuations in Surface Temperature and Energy Imbalance (Invited Presentation)
Cristian Proistosescu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. Armour, A. Donohoe, G. H. Roe, M. F. Stuecker, and C. M. Bitz
2:45 PM
7A.6
The Neutral Radiative Effect of Anvil Clouds in the Tropical West Pacific
Sara E. Berry, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 7B
Climate Variations on Intraseasonal Time Scales
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Nathaniel C. Johnson, Princeton Univ.; Martin Puy, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas
1:45 PM
7B.2
Climate Indexes and Intraseasonal Influences on Brazilian Natural Hydropower Energy
Patricia Diehl Madeira Sr., Climatempo Meteorologia, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. G. M. Ramos, B. Lobo, and A. J. D. N. Silva
2:30 PM
7B.5
Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data
Andrey Savtchenko, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, D. Meyer, and B. Vollmer
3:15 PM
7B.8
Development of a Cold-Air Damming Index for Northern New England
Nicholas Strickland, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and E. G. Hoffman, L. B. Avilés, and S. T. K. Miller

Paper 7B.9 has been moved. It is on in the 46Broadcast as paper 3.3.

3:30 PM
7B.9A
Recording files available
Joint Session 30
Land Surface–Atmosphere InteractionsPart III
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
1:30 PM
J30.1
1:45 PM
J30.2
2:00 PM
J30.3
2:15 PM
J30.4
Brown Ocean Effect on the Louisiana August 2016 Extreme Flooding Event
Udaysankar Nair, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. Rappin, E. Foshee, W. Smith, R. A. Pielke Sr., R. Mahmood, J. L. Case, C. B. Blankenship, J. M. Shepherd, J. A. Santanello, and D. Niyogi
2:45 PM
J30.6A
3:00 PM
J30.7
Modeling the Convective Response to Land-Use Change in the Northern Great Plains
Gabriel Bromley, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT; and T. Gerken, S. S. Williams, and P. Stoy
3:30 PM
J30.9
Evaluating and Benchmarking Land Surface Models
Heather S. Rumbold, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Weedon, M. J. Best, and S. V. Kumar

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 8
Structure and Evolution of Climate Teleconnections in Observations & Simulations 
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL; Ramalingam Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ.
3:00 PM
8.1
The Role of Teleconnecions in Climate Change (Invited Presentation)
Steven B. Feldstein, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Lee, M. Goss, and T. Gong
3:15 PM
8.2
3:30 PM
8.3

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 2
Poster Session II
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
533
When Will We Be Committed to Crossing Critical Temperature Thresholds?
Cristian Proistosescu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. Armour, G. H. Roe, and P. Huybers

540
Quantification of Global Warming: A Critical Evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs
Austin Hope, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. J. Salawitch, T. Canty, L. McBride, W. Tribett, and B. Bennett

542
Temperature Anomalies from the AIRS Product on Giovanni for the Climate Comminity
Feng Ding, NASA/GSFC/GES DISC and Adnet Sys. Inc., Greenbelt, MD; and T. Hearty, J. Wei, M. Theobald, B. Vollmer, E. Seiler, and D. Meyer

546
Discrete Ordinates Spectral Model for Clear-Sky Longwave Surface Irradiance
Mengying Li, Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and Z. Liao and C. F. M. Coimbra
Manuscript (693.9 kB)

548
551
Comparison of Convective Aggregation as Simulated by Two Different Cloud Resolving Models
Alison Banks, Salisbury Univ., Salisbury, MD; and A. Naegele, S. Herbener, D. Dazlich, and D. Randall

552
Convective Aggregation and the Size Distribution of Updrafts
Travis A. O'Brien, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and K. Kashinath, H. Inda Diaz, and W. Collins

558
Caribbean Precipitation Trends during a Regional Sea Surface Temperature Warming Period, 1982–2014
Equisha Glenn, City College, New York, NY; and M. E. Angeles, N. Devineni, T. Smith, and J. E. Gonzalez

560
Types of Synoptic Storms that Drive High Storm Surge in Boston Harbor
Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and R. O'Donnell and L. Agel

562
An East Coast Winter Storm Climatology and Projected Future Trends
Lena M. Dziechowski, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and E. DiGangi and E. R. Martin

563
Testing the Role of Westerly Jet in the Termination of Meiyu
Wenwen Kong, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and J. C. H. Chiang

564
A Quantitative Approach to Associate Crop Production and Precipitation
M. Bannayan Sr., Ferdowsi Univ. of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran (Islamic Republic of); and S. Asadi and A. Monti Sr.

567
568
Modulation of Precipitation under Future Warm Climate over the CONUS
Mukul Tewari, The Weather Company, IBM, New York, NY; and C. Watson, L. A. Treinish, L. A. Winslow, and K. Rose

571
Evaluation of a WRF Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Over the Ogallala Aquifer Region
Yongjun Zhang, Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS; and X. Lin

574
Climatological Characteristics of Frontogenesis and Related Circulations over East China in June and July
Jun Hou, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China; and Z. Guan

579
Understanding and Communicating Local Climate Change
Jacob C. Muller, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. W. Titley, S. K. Miller, and A. M. Walker

580
Korea Climate Change Trend with the Changing of Precipitation
Ihn-Cheol Seong, Inje Univ., Gimhae, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. B. Kim, B. J. Kim, W. S. Jung, and J. K. Park

Handout (1.0 MB)


Joint Poster Session 3
Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 22nd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA GSFC; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Steven M. Quiring, Ohio State Univ.
471
The Feedback of Carbon–Nitrogen–Water Cycle to Climate Change
Li Dan, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

473
The Impacts of Agricultural Land Use and Management on Regional Climate Systems: Interactions with the Asian Summer Monsoon
Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and D. Singh, B. Cook, M. Puma, and C. Montes

474
The Impacts of Agricultural Land Cover and Management on Land–Atmosphere Coupling: A Midlatitude Sensitivity Assessment
Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and B. Cook, C. Montes, and M. Puma

475
Assessment of the Impact and Sensitivity of Urbanization on the Climate of Kansas City Metropolitan Areas
Fengpeng Sun, University of Missouri–Kansas City, Kansas City, MO

476
477
The Role of Soil Moisture over Irrigated Land on Precipitation in the Northern Great Plains at Convective Scales
Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, U. Nair, and R. Pielke Sr.

478
Regional Warming Amplification and Land Surface Feedbacks
Ethan David Coffel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. M. Horton

480
Current Trends in Land–Atmosphere Coupling Related to Drought
Joshua K. Roundy, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and C. R. Ferguson and J. A. Santanello

485
Land Surface Skin Temperature Errors in the NCEP Models over CONUS
Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, Y. Xia, H. Wei, J. Meng, Y. Wu, and Y. Yu

486
Assessing the Effects of LSS Choice on Simulated Geopotential Heights over China: A Case Study Using WRF
Xin-Min Zeng, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China; and B. Wang and N. Wang

Handout (5.5 MB)

488
Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains
Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. A. Klein, H. Y. Ma, Q. Tang, S. Xie, I. N. Williams, J. A. Santanello, D. R. Cook, and M. S. Torn

489
NCA-LDAS, a Terrestrial Hydrology Satellite Data Assimilation System for the National Climate Assessment: Overview and Ver. 1.0 Hydrologic Indicators
Michael F. Jasinski, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, J. S. Borak, D. M. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, M. Rodell, H. Rui, H. Beaudoing, B. Li, K. R. Arsenault, B. Vollmer, and J. Bolten

499
The Importance of Soil Moisture to Influence and Predict Summer Extreme Heat Events in North America
Zhe Zhang, Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; and Y. Li, F. Chen, and M. Barlage

500
Convective Cold Pool Responses to Soil Moisture
Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant and S. C. van den Heever

501

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Peter J. Webster Symposium Banquet
Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 9A
African Climate Variations and Change—Part I
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ.; Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
9:00 AM
9A.3
Recording files available
Session 9B
Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part I
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division; Patrick Taylor, NASA LaRC

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 10B
Arctic Climate Variability and Change—Part II
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division; Patrick Taylor, NASA LaRC
10:30 AM
10B.1

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 7
Machine Learning and Climate Studies
Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern Univ.; Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
11:00 AM
TJ7.2
11:30 AM
TJ7.4
Automated Detection of Fronts Using a Deep Learning Algorithm
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC; and J. C. Biard and E. Racah
11:45 AM
TJ7.5
Recording files available
Session 10A
African Climate Variations and Change—Part II
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Wassila Thiaw, CPC; Rory Gordon John Fitzpatrick, Univ. of Leeds
10:30 AM
10A.1
An IR Sounding–Based Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer in North Africa
Stephen D. Nicholls, Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and K. I. Mohr
11:00 AM
10A.3
On the Coherence of Sahel Region under Different Emissions Scenarios
Hamada S. Badr, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 11
Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Variability and Change
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
11:15 AM
11.2
Snow-(N)AO Teleconnection and Its Modulation By the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation
Yannick Peings, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and H. Douville, J. Colin, D. Saint-Martin, and G. Magnusdottir

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 2
2018 Horton Lecture
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
1:30 PM
L2.1
Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)
Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 12A
African Climate Variations and Change—Part III
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas; Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
1:45 PM
12A.2
Modeling Hydrological Regimes of the Logone-Lake Chad River Basin, Africa under CMIP5 GCMs Projections
Asmita Murumkar, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and M. T. Durand, B. Mark, A. Fernández, M. Moritz, I. Hamilton, S. Phang, S. Laborde, and A. Shastry
2:00 PM
12A.3
3:00 PM
12A.7
Trend and Periodicity of Drought over Ethiopia
Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Bahir Dar Univ., Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

3:15 PM
12A.8
Climate Change at the Margin in East Africa
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and A. Giannini, R. Seager, and N. Vigaud

3:30 PM
12A.9
Causes of Uncertainty in Projections of East African Rainfall Change
Dave Rowell, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Chadwick
Recording files available
Session 12B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part I
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State Univ.
1:30 PM
12B.1
2:15 PM
12B.4
Attributing Seasonal Montane Snowfall Patterns to Atmospheric Rivers Using Different Detection Methods
Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and S. A. Margulis, B. Guan, D. E. Waliser, and P. J. Neiman
2:30 PM
12B.5
Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers
Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and V. Espinoza, B. Guan, F. M. Ralph, and D. A. Lavers
2:45 PM
12B.6
Multi-Model Assessment of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Atmospheric River Prediction Skill
Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, F. Vitart, F. M. Ralph, and A. Goodman
3:00 PM
12B.7
3:15 PM
12B.8
3:30 PM
12B.9
Statistical Relationship between the Atmospheric River and Extratropical Cyclone
Yanjuan Guo, Texas A&M Univ., Corpus Christi, TX; and T. Shinoda, B. Guan, and D. E. Waliser

Recording files available
Session 12C
Jay Fein's Legacy—Part I
Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF; Eric DeWeaver, NSF
2:15 PM
12C.3
The Monsoon Expeditions: The Legacy of Jay S. Fein (Invited Presentation)
Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 3
Poster Session III
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
943
Changes in West African Monsoon Precipitation: The Competition between Large-scale Dynamics and Local Thermodynamics
Weipeng Zheng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and P. Braconnot, M. Gaetani, and K. Izumi

944
Improvements in the Precipitation Distribution of West Africa with a Convection-Permitting Simulation at Climate Scales
Ségolène Berthou, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and E. J. Kendon, M. J. Roberts, D. Rowell, and R. Stratton

945
HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Deciisons for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa
John H. Marsham, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. Rowell, B. E. Evans, R. J. Cornforth, F. H. M. Semazzi, R. L. Wilby, and T. HyCRISTAL team

946
The CP4 Africa Control Simulation—An Initial Assessment of the Run
Rachel Stratton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and C. Senior, S. Vosper, and M. Vellinga

948
Sahel Decadal Rainfall Variability and the Role of Model Horizontal Resolution
Michael Vellinga, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, M. Mizielinski, M. E. Demory, R. Schiemann, J. Strachan, and C. L. Bain

949
Rainy Season Failure in West Africa: Projected Changes and Sources of Uncertainty
Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Bacci and A. Giannini

950
South Asian Summer Monsoon: SST-Based Predictability and Real-Time Forecast of the 2016 and 2017 Monsoon
Agniv Sengupta, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam and A. Ruiz-Barradas

951
Effects of Tropical Expansion on Regional Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure
Daniel F. Schmidt, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and K. M. Grise

954
Increased in Dry Season Length Over the Congo
Yan Jiang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Zhou, W. Hua, and A. Raghavendra

955
Long-Term Trends and Variability of Eddy Activities in the South China Sea
Hans Von Storch, Helmholtz Center, Geesthacht, Germany; and M. Zhang

Handout (516.4 kB)

957
Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Waves under Global Warming
Ibourahima Kebe, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Poster 964 has been moved. New paper number 14A.3A

965
Temporal and Spatial Climate Variability and Trends over Abay (Upper Blue Nile) River Basin
Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Bahir Dar Univ., Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

966
An Extreme Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Event in 2016: Dynamics and Predictability
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and B. Lu

971
A Sub-Seasonal Forecast Multi-System for Extreme Events Prediction
Stefano Materia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and Á. Muñoz and S. Gualdi

973
Performance Evaluation of a Regional Climate Model in Simulating Rainfall over Indonesia
Ganesha T Chandrasa, Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia; and A. Montenegro

974
All India Monsoon Rainfall Variability:Large-Scale Circulations, QBO, and ENSO Impacts and Processes
Remata S. Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri and M. Fadavi

975
Evaluation of Subseasonal Prediction Skill Using the Global FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model
Shan Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, S. Benjamin, B. W. Green, and G. Grell

977
Diurnal Cycle of West African Westerly Jet and Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Sahel
Weiran Liu, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy

981
Changes in Ocean Temperature in the Barents Sea in the 21st Century
Zhenxia Long, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

983
985
Interactions between Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover and the Troposphere Circumpolar Vortex
Gwangyong Choi, Jeju National Univ., Jeju-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. A. Robinson

988
Drivers of 2016 Record Arctic Warmth Assessed Using Climate Simulations Subjected to Factual and Counterfactual Forcing
Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and L. Sun, D. Allured, M. Hoerling, L. Smith, and D. Murray

989
Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and M. L'Heureux, Q. Zhang, and Q. Ding

990
Effects of Greenland Anticyclone Magnitude and Persistence on Spring Sea Ice Melt in the North Atlantic
Thomas J. Ballinger, Texas State Univ., San Marcos, TX; and E. Hanna, R. J. Hall, T. E. Cropper, J. A. Miller, M. H. Ribergaard, J. E. Overland, and J. L. Høyer

991
Understanding Internal Climate Variability and the Upper Limit of 2°C Increase of Global Mean Surface Temperature
Seunghwon Hyun, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

995
Classifying the Tropospheric Precursor Patterns of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Ming Bao, Nanjing Univeristy, Nanjing, China; and X. Tan, D. L. Hartmann, and P. Ceppi

996
Impact of Different Processes on Tropical Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor as Simulated by Chemistry–Climate Models
Kevin M Smalley, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, S. Bekki, M. Deushi, M. Marchand, O. Morgenstern, D. A. Plummer, K. Shibata, Y. Yamashita, and G. Zeng

Handout (11.4 MB)

997
Quantifying Stratospheric Polar Vortex Trends during the 20th and 21st Centuries
Carly Narotsky, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and J. C. Furtado

998
Decadal Data Sets and Decadal Trends: Considerations Based on Radio Occultation Observation
Anthony J. Mannucci, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. O. Ao, P. Vergados, O. P. Verkhoglyadova, and B. A. Iijima

1001
Discussion of Recent Cyclical Temperature Trends Detected in the United States
Adam Theisen, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data Quality Office/CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Sisterson

1005
High Risk of Unprecedented U.K. Rainfall
Vikki Thompson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Eade, N. Dunstone, A. A. Scaife, and D. M. Smith

1010
Atmospheric River Importance to Extratropical Climate and Hydrology
Deanna L. Nash, ; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, H. Ye, and F. M. Ralph

1011
Water Vapor Budget in Atmospheric Rivers: A Multi-Model Evaluation
Bin Guan, Univ. of California, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and F. M. Ralph

1012
1013
Typhoon Season Extreme Rain Characteristics of Taiwan
Alex Henny, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. E. Howarth, C. D. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

1015
Changes in the Dynamics of a Blocking Event with Warming
Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson

1019
Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast United States: 1979–2014
Macy E. Howarth, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. Henny, C. D. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

1021

Joint Poster Session 6
Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Ben Lintner, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey; Yolande L. Serra, JISAO
892
The North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017
David K. Adams, Univ. Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and E. R. Vivoni, B. R. Lintner, C. Minjarez Sosa, Y. L. Serra, A. Granados, A. Vázquez Galvez, J. C. Rodriguez, V. Verduzco, E. R. Pérez Ruiz, F. Barffuson, M. Grutter, J. S. Haase, H. Liang, E. Cabral Cano, D. J. Gochis, E. Yépez, A. Robles Morua, A. Bezanilla, R. Del Rio Salas, A. I. Quintanar, C. Ochoa Moya, and L. Salazar-Tlaczani


Joint Poster Session 8
Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Posters
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Benjamin Cook, NASA GISS
919
Optimal Application of Basin Management Practices in Geumho River for Reducing Effect of Climate Change
Yoonkyung Park, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Choi, W. Cha, O. Lee, and S. Kim
Manuscript (66.9 kB)

921
Future IDF Curves in Korea Using Scale-Invariance Technique under AR5 RCP Scenarios
Sangdan Kim, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Park and J. Choi
Manuscript (160.6 kB)

924
Changes of Hydroclimatic Intensity over East Asia Projected by Multiregional Climate Model Ensemble under RCP Scenarios.
Ahn Joong-Bae, Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. Yeon-Woo and I. Eun-Soon

926
Impacts of the Surface Heterogeneities on Local Climate in the Amazonian Subbasin of Ji-Paraná Using the Eta/Noah-MP Model
Isabel L. Pilotto, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil; and D. A. Rodriguez and S. C. Chou

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


98th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 13A
Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation—Part I: The Hadley Circulation
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia
8:30 AM
13A.1
8:45 AM
13A.2
Recording files available
Session 13B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part II
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California
8:30 AM
13B.1
Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales
Cory F. Baggett, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, and B. D. Mundhenk
9:00 AM
13B.3
Mesoscale Observation and Modeling of the Atmospheric River during CalWater2
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle, J. Cummings, P. G. Black, C. W. Fairall, R. Branch, and A. T. Jessup
Recording files available
Session 13C
Jay Fein's Legacy—Part II
Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Anjuli S. Bamzai, NSF; Eric DeWeaver, NSF
9:00 AM
13C.2
Recording files available
Joint Session 48
Monsoons of the Americas: Advancing Understanding and Improving Prediction through Observations and Models
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Ben Lintner, Rutgers, State Univ. of New Jersey; Yolande L. Serra, JISAO
8:30 AM
J48.1
An Interhemispheric View of the American Monsoons: Vegetation and Moisture Transport Processes (Invited Talk)
Paola A. Arias, Univ. de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; and J. A. Martinez, S. C. Vieira, and J. C. Villegas
8:45 AM
J48.2
Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America (Invited Talk)
Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and L. Trenary, K. Pegion, B. Cash, T. DelSole, and J. L. Kinter III
9:15 AM
J48.4

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 14A
Variability and Change in the Tropical Circulation Part II: Precipitation/ITCZ
Location: 616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Paul W. Staten, Indiana Univ.
10:30 AM
14A.1
Impacts of Deep and Shallow Convection on the Gross Moist Stability
Hien Xuan Bui, National Central Univ., Taiwan, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; and J. Y. Yu

Paper 14A.3 has been moved. Now 7B.9A

11:00 AM
14A.3A
Toward Improving Tropical Rainfall Forecast Skill: Do Equatorial Waves Matter?
Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich, G. N. Kiladis, and M. Gehne
11:15 AM
14A.4
The Annual Cycle of the Tropical Rain Belts and Its Changes under CO2 Quadrupling in the TRACMIP Ensemble
Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and J. Scheff
11:30 AM
14A.5
Understanding Precipitation Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Forcing in the Tropics (Invited Presentation)
Jie He, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. C. Johnson, G. A. Vecchi, A. T. Wittenberg, and B. P. Kirtman
Recording files available
Session 14B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part III
Location: Salon F (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan
11:15 AM
14B.4
11:30 AM
14B.5
A Global Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Melanie Bieli, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. L. Evans, and T. M. Hall
Recording files available
Session 14C
Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part I
Location: Salon J (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.
10:30 AM
14C.1
Piers Does Global Photosynthesis
Joe Berry, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA
10:45 AM
14C.2
Year-to-Year Changes in the Earth System: A Study of the Carbon Cycle using NASA Observations and the GEOS Model
Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Gelaro, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Chatterjee, R. Koster, E. Lee, T. Oda, B. Weir, and F. zeng

11:15 AM
14C.4
NASA Observations and Research to Inform Studies of Partitioning of Carbon Between Atmosphere and Biosphere
Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Science Mission Directorate, Washington, DC; and K. W. Jucks, H. A. Margolis, K. A. Hibbard, and D. Considine
11:30 AM
14C.5
A New NASA Capability to Quantify Regional CO2 and CH4 Surface Exchange and Improve Flux Model Performance
G. M. Wolfe, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. A. Hannun, S. R. Kawa, P. A. Newman, T. Hanisco, G. S. Diskin, J. Digangi, J. Nowak, J. D. Barrick, K. L. Thornhill, A. Noormets, R. Vargas, K. L. Clark, and W. P. Kustas
11:45 AM
14C.6
Observing System Simulations for Carbon–Climate Feedbacks
David Schimel, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and P. J. Sellers, L. Ott, and A. Eldering

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


David J. Raymond Symposium Luncheon
Location: Ballroom A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 15A
Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part I
Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Emily J. Becker, NOAA; Maria K. Flatau, NRL
2:15 PM
15A.4
Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical S2S Forecasts with Weather Types over North America
Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Á. Muñoz, G. A. Vecchi, and R. G. Gudgel
Recording files available
Session 15B
Atmospheric Rivers and Other Extreme Climate Events—Part IV
Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Ashley E. Payne, Univ. of Michigan
2:00 PM
15B.3
2:45 PM
15B.6
Recording files available
Joint Session 54
Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part I
Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Jeffrey Basara, University of Oklahoma
1:30 PM
J54.1
1:45 PM
J54.2
2:15 PM
J54.4A
Storm-Scale Variations of Water Isotopes in the Tropical High Andes
Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and H. Guy, L. B. Perry, E. Burton, S. Arias, N. Quispe, N. Montoya, M. Rado, M. Andrade, R. Winkelman, M. Peñaloza, C. Cooper, and E. Montpellier
2:45 PM
J54.6
Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America
Honghai Zhang, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 16
Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part II
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.
2:30 PM
16.1
2:45 PM
16.2

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 17C
Piers Sellers' Legacy—Part III
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Inez Fung, Univ. of California; David A. Randall, Colorado State Univ.
4:15 PM
17C.4
Effect of Climate Change on the Ecohydrology of the Mt. Marsabit Cloud Forest (Northern Kenya)
Sietse O Los, Swansea Univ., Swansea, United Kingdom; and F. A. Street-Perrot, N. J. Loader, and C. Froyd

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 17A
Predictability and Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modes of Climate Variability—Part II
Location: 406 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ.; Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC
3:45 PM
17A.2
Strong Relations between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. K. Tippett, A. Kumar, A. H. Butler, L. M. Ciasto, Q. Ding, K. J. Harnos, and N. Johnson

4:45 PM
17A.6
Predictability and Mechanisms of North Atlantic Oscillation Variability—A Signal-to-Noise Paradox
Adam A. Scaife, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, R. Eade, N. Dunstone, C. MacLachlan, L. Hermanson, and R. Comer
Recording files available
Session 17B
Emerging Surprises in Climate Change
Location: 408 (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California
3:30 PM
17B.1
One Drier, One Wetter: A Tale of Two Rainforests
Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and J. khanna

3:45 PM
17B.2
Unexpected Impacts of Global Warming on Extreme Warm Spells
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. McColl, and C. Penland

4:00 PM
17B.3
4:15 PM
17B.4
Recording files available
Joint Session 58
Variability of Regional Hydroclimate, Part II
Location: Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma; Benjamin Cook, NASA GISS
4:15 PM
J58.4
Detection and Attribution of the Terrestrial Runoff in the Conterminous United States
Jiafu Mao, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and W. Forbes, W. Fu, X. Shi, D. Ricciuto, M. Jin, and S. C. Kao

4:30 PM
J58.5
4:45 PM
J58.6
The Effect of Global Warming on Water Availability
Craig R. Ferguson, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY; and M. Pan