The Role of Ocean and Atmosphere Heat Transport in the Arctic Amplification

Observational data and climate model projections have suggested that the Arctic region is warming around twice faster than the rest of the globe, which has been referred as the Arctic Amplification (AA). While the local feedbacks, e.g. sea ice-albedo feedback, are often suggested as the primary driver of AA by previous studies, the role of meridional heat transport by ocean and atmosphere is less clear. This study uses the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulation (CESM1-LE) to seek deeper understanding of the role meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat transports play in AA. The simulation consists of 40 ensemble members with the same physics and external forcing using a single fully coupled climate model. Each ensemble member spans two time periods; the historical period from 1920 to 2005 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical forcing and the future period from 2006 to 2100 using the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Each of the ensemble members are initialized with slightly different air temperatures. As the CESM1-LE uses a single model unlike the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the internal variability and the externally forced components can be separated more clearly. The projections are calculated by comparing the period 2081-2100 relative to the time period 2001-2020. The CESM1-LE projects an AA of 2.5-2.8 times faster than the global average, which is within the range of those from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. However, the spread of AA from the CESM1-LE, which is attributed to the internal variability, is ~2-3 times smaller than that of the CMIP5 ensemble, which may also include the inter-model differences. CESM1LE projects a decrease in the atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic and an increase in the oceanic heat transport. The atmospheric heat transport is further decomposed into moisture transport and dry static energy transport. Also, the oceanic heat transport is decomposed into the Pacific and Atlantic contributions.