Understanding Climatic Variability: The Environmental Conditions Influencing Snowstorm Variability in Upstate New York

Central New York is well-known for its winter climate, a climate characterized by some of the highest snowfall totals east of the Rocky Mountains. However, the region is particularly relevant since it is regularly subjected to a variety of snowstorm types including Nor’easters, Colorado Lows, Alberta Clippers, and other extratropical cyclones, and most notably, lake-effect snowfall. Recent research has suggested that snowstorms are some of the most vulnerable storms to a changing climate due to their dependence on below freezing temperatures. However, the expected changes vary depending on the type of snowstorm, with an expected increase in snowfall from lake-effect storms and an expected decrease in snowfall from non-lake-effect storms.

Due to the geography of the area, Upstate New York is particularly interesting as it lies at the intersection of the Great Lakes Basin and the Northeast Basin. Even though these regions are considered spatially independent, their boundaries are not well defined. Therefore, the first objective of this research was to determine the percent contribution of various snowstorm types to seasonal snowfall totals throughout Upstate New York. As expected, the Tug Hill Plateau has the greatest contribution from lake-effect snowstorms, averaging over 40% of the snowfall per year. The further from and less oriented with Lake Ontario, contribution greatly drop off; however, lake-effect snowfall remains the greatest contributor for nearly the entire region. Thus, from these results, it is easier to predict exactly how projected changes in snowstorms will impact this area, even though it is arguably lies entirely within the lake-effect snowbasin. Understanding potential changes in seasonal snowfall is essential for this region, which is dependent on high seasonal snowfall totals each year.

After determining the percent contribution of the various snowstorm types for all of central upstate New York, potential climate drivers were examined to understand the annual variability present. AICc models were utilized to determine the atmospheric and oceanic forcings, such as teleconnection patterns, which influence the annual variability of snowstorms in central Upstate New York. Interestingly, different snowstorms responded differently to various teleconnections. For example, lake-effect snowstorms were least influence by teleconnection patterns, while Nor’easters responded the most. In addition, the amount of snowfall for the various storms and the geographical of the snow were examined for each storm and linked to the atmospheric conditions present.