A Process-Based Assessment of Decadal-Scale Surface Temperature Evolutions in the NCAR CCSM4’s 25-Year Hindcast Experiments

This study represents an initial effort in the context of the coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) to partition the temporal evolution of the global surface temperature from 1981 to 2005 into components associated with individual radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) processes in the NCAR CCSM4’s decadal hindcasts. When compared with the observation (ERA-Interim), the CCSM4 is able to predict an overall warming trend as well as the transient cooling occurring during the period 1989-1994. However, while the model captures fairly well the positive contributions of the CO₂ and surface albedo change to the temperature evolution, it has an overly strong water vapor effect that dictates the temperature evolution in the hindcast. This is in contrast with the ERA-Interim where changes in surface dynamics (mainly ocean circulation and heat content change) dominates the actual temperature evolution. Atmospheric dynamics in both the ERA-Interim and model works against the surface temperature tendency through turbulent and convective heat transport, leading to an overall negative contribution to the evolution of the surface temperature. Impacts of solar forcing and ozone change on the surface temperature change are relatively weak during this period. The magnitude of cloud effect is considerably smaller compared to that in the ERA-Interim and the spatial distribution of the cloud effect is also significantly different between the two especially over the equatorial Pacific. The roles of individual processes in the decadal-scale sea surface temperature evolutions over the North Atlantic are examined and the predictability of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the CCSM4 is discussed.