Simulating the Effects of Climate Extremes on Changes in Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Great Plains

Increases in extreme rainfall events, meteorological and flash droughts, and season mean temperatures in the Great Plains will play a major role in land-use management in the twenty-first century. Evidence suggests that drought and wetting episode intensities have significantly increased in the last thirty years for most of the Great Plains and continued trends will increase demand for climate resilient adaptations in agricultural systems. Our research objective was to identify major changes in land surface-atmosphere dynamics under future scenarios of warming and variable precipitation in the Great Plains using the Community Land Model. Changes in frequency of precipitation and heat and cold stresses will shift boundaries of sensitive ecosystems, such as the tallgrass, shortgrass, and mixed grasses. These land-climate dynamics will drive changes towards smarter strategies in land-use management, particularly in cropping and livestock systems. Historical and projected climate diagnostics will be performed to identify regional changes in climate extremes in addition to the resulting shifts in dominant ecosystems. Adaptive practices will be recommended based on the results.