Decadal Variability and Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits low frequency variability and teleconnections that can influence much of the Northern Hemisphere, including a clear relationship with China (e.g. Zuo et al, 2016). The NAO has been shown to be a significant source of predictability for seasonal forecasts around the North Atlantic basin for winters a season to a year ahead (Scaife et al, 2014; Dunstone et al, 2016). Here we investigate how well global climate models can simulate the range of decadal variability seen in the NAO and the processes behind it, with a particular focus on the large trends identified in recent decades.