1B.3 Decadal Variability and Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Monday, 8 January 2018: 9:15 AM
616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Rosie Eade, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and A. A. Scaife, D. M. Smith, and H. L. Ren

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits low frequency variability and teleconnections that can influence much of the Northern Hemisphere, including a clear relationship with China (e.g. Zuo et al, 2016). The NAO has been shown to be a significant source of predictability for seasonal forecasts around the North Atlantic basin for winters a season to a year ahead (Scaife et al, 2014; Dunstone et al, 2016). Here we investigate how well global climate models can simulate the range of decadal variability seen in the NAO and the processes behind it, with a particular focus on the large trends identified in recent decades.
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