Process Evaluation of Northeast Winter Precipitation in CMIP5

In this research we examine processes involved in wintertime precipitation variability in the Northeast U.S. and employ process measures for the evaluation of 16 CMIP5 models in the Historical simulations. The measures combine both quantitative indices and qualitative expert judgement, and include EOFs of precipitation, regressions of circulation variables with precipitation principal components, and correlations. Our presentation will incorporate the observed processes of importance, the evaluation of model processes, and an examination of wintertime precipitation projections given the model evaluations.