Session: ENSO Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I (98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Monday, 8 January 2018: 2:00 PM-4:15 PM

616 AB (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Host: 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs:

R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ., Dept. of Atmospheric Science, College Station, TX and Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA

Papers:

2:00 PM

3B.1

ENSO and the Response to Global Warming

Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Kohyama

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.2

ENSO Teleconnections: How Well Do We Know Them And How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly?

Clara Deser, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.3

A Two-Year Forecast for a 60–80% Chance of La Niña in 2017–18

Pedro DiNezio, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. M. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G. A. Meehl

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.4

How Important are the Extratropics to ENSO Diversity and Predictability?

Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.5

Contrasting Impacts of Slow and Fast Wind Variations on ENSO

Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.6

Influence of Westerly Wind Events Stochasticity on El Niño Amplitude: The case of 2014 vs. 2015.

Martin PUY, Institute for Geophysics, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, P. DiNezio, A. Voldoire, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Madec, C. Menkes, and M. J. McPhaden

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3B.7

Trans-Pacific ENSO Teleconnections Pose a Correlated Risk to Global Agriculture

Weston Anderson, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and W. Baethgen

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3B.8

A Tropical Ecological Forecasting Strategy for ENSO Based on a Global Modeling Framework

Forrest M. Hoffman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Xu, N. O. Collier, P. Levine, and J. T. Randerson

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM