High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere–Land–Hydrology Prediction of Coastal Flood from Hurricane Irene

Coastal flooding from severe weather and tropical storm surges has a large environmental and societal impact. One of the key elements to improve the forecast of coastal flooding events is the ability of models to accurately predict the precipitation amount and location, soil conditions, and the routing of both surface and subsurface water through the coastal catchment. A recent effort at the Naval Research Laboratory and community partners from NASA, NOAA, NCAR, and UC has been underway to develop a new capability to improve the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^®1) coastal prediction by coupling COAMPS with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and NCAR (WRF-Hydro) hydrology model using the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) interface of Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). Preliminary results show the 3 km resolution coupled COAMPS-LIS-Hydro forecast was able to capture observed severe flooding over three major catchment watersheds – Tar-Pamlico-Neuse in North Carolina, Susquehanna in Pennsylvania, and Chesapeake Bay in Virginia created by Hurricane Irene (2011). We will discuss the coupled model prediction of precipitation, soil condition, and water routing through these watersheds and their validation. The sensitivity of the coupling frequency will be addressed.