Accuracy of New York Automated Wind Compression Tool

Accuracy of New York Automated Wind Compression Tool

Victor Klimenko, Mark Klopfenstein

AvMet Applications, Inc., Reston, Virginia

Unanticipated adverse path-based wind shear can significantly affect airspeed of aircraft being separated and sequenced through a specific volume of airspace, possibly resulting in a dangerous loss of separation known as wind compression. This situation can be especially problematic when it occurs on descent and final approach into Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) airspace where there can be little room to maneuver, where mitigation/correction opportunities are more limited, and where controller and pilot workload is already high. In the previous phase of work (Reiche et al. 2016), we generated recommendations for wind compression guidance to best meet operational needs and help address these challenges by conducting stakeholder interviews at facilities frequently experiencing wind compression constraints. Wind compression graphical predictions issued by the ZNY Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) currently meet some of the operational needs identified in the previous phase of work, but their forecast accuracy has yet to be evaluated.

In the current work we evaluated the performance of the automated New York Wind Compression tool through comparison of predicted to observed vertical profiles of headwind/tailwind for 2016-2017 events where compression forecast graphics were issued by the ZNY CWSU. The predicted vertical headwind/tailwind profiles were generated from a local version of the Automated Wind Compression Tool that was run on forecast model sounding archives to replicate what the ZNY CWSU was likely viewing to produce the graphics during each event. The observed vertical headwind/tailwind profiles were created from available airborne wind observations collected during each event. The greatest potential wind compression was calculated for both forecast and observations to enable validation of the predicted compression magnitude and altitudes.

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA. The FAA Aviation Weather Division (ANG-C6) support, instruction, and feedback on this research was valuable and most appreciated.

References

Reiche, C., M. Robinson, C. Craun, and R. Bass, 2016. Operational shortfalls and potential benefits of path-based wind shear prediction. 16th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Washington, DC, AIAA-2016-3906.