Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium

Program Chairs: Mike Robinson , The MITRE Corporation ; Gordon Brooks , Air Force Weather Agency

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Assessing or Mitigating Weather Observation Uncertainty
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium
Cochairs: Michael Robinson, MITRE Corporation; Gordon Brooks, 557th Weather Wing
8:45 AM
1.1
The Role of Observation Uncertainty in the Verification of Global Forecasts of Convective Hazards
Laura Melling, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. Laing, M. S. Wandishin, and M. A. Petty
9:00 AM
1.2
EDR/RMS-G Correlation Analysis
Michael J. Emanuel, FAA, Atlantic City, NJ; and G. Meymaris, L. Cornman, J. Sherry, and D. Mulally
9:15 AM
1.3
The Geographical Distribution of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida
Tania M. Garza, Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT), Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and O. A. Nava and W. P. Roeder
9:30 AM
1.4
9:45 AM
1.5
On the Interpolation of Three-Dimensional Radar Observations to Flight Levels
Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Advancing Forecast Capabilities for Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Decision Support
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium
Cochairs: Judy Ghiradelli, NWS; Tammy J. Farrar, FAA
10:30 AM
2.1
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts of Aviation Hazards Using Multiple Global Ensembles
Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, M. Steiner, M. Strahan, R. Bass, and C. P. Kalb
10:45 AM
2.2
Guidance on Optimally Presenting Probabilistic Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts for the Aviation Community
Stephanie Avey, CIRA, Kansas City, MO; and S. Alvidrez, S. A. Lack, A. Cross, J. A. Kankiewicz, and R. Bastholm
11:00 AM
2.3
11:45 AM
2.6
Improvements in the Detection and Prediction of Volcanic Ash for Aviation at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Chris Lucas, BOM, Melbourne, Australia; and R. J. Potts, M. J. Zidikheri, R. A. Dare, M. Manickam, A. Wain, and A. Bear-Crozier

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
Breaking the Mold: Leveraging New Data, Capabilities, and Practices in Support of Evolving Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Operations
Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium
Cochairs: Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS; Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing
2:00 PM
3.1A
Accuracy of New York Automated Wind Compression Tool
Victor Klimenko, AvMet Applications, Reston, VA; and M. Klopfenstein
2:15 PM
3.2
Evaluating High-Resolution Model Data for Aviation Impacts due to Cloud and Visibility for the San Francisco International Airport
Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and A. Cross, D. Bentley, C. S. Bartholomew, P. Buchanan, I. A. Boutle, S. Avey, and S. Alvidrez
2:30 PM
3.3
Advanced Weather Datasets for UAV Operations
Anuj Agrawal, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD

2:45 PM
3.4A
Assessment of Dual-Polarized Radar Coverage in the Terminal Airspaces of Commercial Airports
Jacqueline Waters, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves and A. Keys
3:00 PM
3.5
Operational Unmanned Mission Execution Forecasts at Dugway Proving Ground
John Pace, Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and E. N. Vernon
3:15 PM
3.6
Quantifying the Relationship between Storm Size and Forecast Uncertainty for Enhanced Blending
James O. Pinto, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, K. Stone, and D. Albo
3:30 PM
3.7
Integrating GOES-16 Satellite into Convective Porosity Determination at CWSU Houston
Roland Nunez, NWS/Center Weather Service Unit, Houston, TX; and E. Zappe
3:45 PM
3.8
Optimizing Prediction of Lightning Initiation by Identifying Towers of Supercooled Water with Dual-Polarization Radar
Omar A. Nava, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and W. P. Roeder
4:00 PM
3.9A
Gap-Filling Radar Observations of a Snow Squall at San Luis Valley Regional Airport
Andrew A. Rosenow, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. W. Howard and J. Meitín

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Hazard Detection, Decision Support, and Policy Advancements
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium
Chair: Gordon Brooks, 557th Weather Wing
319
Improving Weather Guidance for Aviation Decision-Making: Enhancements to Rap and HRRR Deterministic and Ensemble Prediction Systems, including Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation, Forecast, and Post-Processing Components
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, D. C. Dowell, J. Kenyon, E. P. James, T. T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, J. M. Brown, and S. Benjamin

320
Expanding the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Suite of Aviation Guidance to Support the National Weather Service's National Blend of Models
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Charba, P. E. Shafer, B. Glahn, F. G. Samplatsky, A. D. Schnapp, A. J. Kochenash, C. Huang, M. Allard, G. Sindic-Rancic, F. Guarriello, A. Gibbons, M. Masuda, and W. Ahue

321
Ground-Based Remote Sensing Techniques for Space Launch Decision Support
Tim Wilfong, Radiometrics, Boulder, CO; and D. Berchoff, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, N. A. Gasperoni, E. Lau, S. A. McLaughlin, R. Ware, and M. Xue

322
Blending Model and Observations for a Ceiling and Visbility Product for Alaska
Rita D. Roberts, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Cowie, J. O. Pinto, T. L. Fowler, D. Megenhardt, D. A. Wesley, and J. A. Colavito

323
Estimating Visibility from FAA Camera Installations in Remote Regions of Alaska for General Aviation Awareness
Michael Matthews, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and R. G. Hallowell

324
Transition NCAR's Graphical Turbulence Guidance Algorithm into NCEP Operations
Yali Mao, EMC, College Park, MD; and H. Y. Chuang

325
Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of Aviation Turbulence
Luke N. Storer, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and P. Gill and P. D. Williams

325A
Global Response of Clear-Air Turbulence to Climate Change
Luke N. Storer, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and P. D. Williams and M. M. Joshi

326
Unparalleled Access to Aviation Weather Data using the MetOcean Application Profile of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Coverage Service (WCS)
Steven R. Olson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and P. R. Hershberg, P. Trevelyan, and G. Percivall

327
Collaborative Digital Aviation Grid Process at the Aviation Weather Testbed and Operations Proving Ground
Austin Cross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and S. A. Lack, J. W. Scheck, S. Avey, K. J. Runk, C. M. Gravelle, D. W. Snyder, and K. L. Crandall

328
Recent Upgrads to East China ATMB High Resolution Aviation Weather Forecast Capability: Real-Time Operation of eIAWSTM-R3R
Jing Cheng, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and S. Liu, Y. Weng, J. M. García-Rivera, Y. Li, W. Guo, Q. Xing, Q. Shi, X. Li, Z. Chen, X. Wang, and L. Jiang

329
Impacts of the Enterprise Integrated Aviation Weather System Forecast Products on Air Traffic Flow Management in East China
José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and J. Cheng, R. Chen, W. Guo, Y. Weng, Y. Li, and L. Jiang

331
Improving Summertime Convective Wind Forecasting in the Southeastern United States
Ray L Christensen II, U.S. Air Force (USAF), Department of Defense (DOD), Barksdale Air Force Base, LA

Handout (535.9 kB)

333
Analysis of Total Lightning Flash Rates Over Florida
Thomas A. Mazzetti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg

334
Radar Thresholds and Lightning Prediction at Wallops Flight Facility
Evan Edward Thomas, NASA, Wallops Island, VA; and A. Thomas and N. Kyper

335
The Remote Oceanic Meteorology Information Operational (ROMIO) Demonstration
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Frazier, T. A. Lindholm, J. Olivo, B. Barron, G. Blackburn, B. Watts, R. Stone, D. Keany, D. Tyler, and T. J. Horsager

Handout (411.2 kB)

336
An Update on the Global Weather Hazards Project and Next Steps
James Olivo, Basic Commerce and Industry, Inc., Moorestown, NJ; and L. Lin, V. Hoang, M. Nayote, C. Kessinger, D. Megenhardt, O. Matz, A. Ritter, D. Wolf, K. Sievers, R. Scheinhartz, and J. Cahall

Handout (1.9 MB)

337
Development of Diagnostics of Near-Cloud Aviation Turbulence based on Convective Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization
Soo-Hyun Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun, R. D. Sharman, and S. B. Trier

339
Weather Support for Collaborative Decision-Making in Aviation
Shun Liu, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and Y. Weng, W. Guo, R. Chen, J. Cheng, M. Fang, Y. Li, C. Tan, and L. Jiang

342
Using Wind Profilers to Examine Non-Convective Low-Level Wind Shear in North Carolina
Ryan Ellis, NOAA/NWSFO, Raleigh, NC; and B. Smith and K. Dedeaux

343
The Intelligent and Multifunctional eIAWS Nowcasting System (IMnowcastor) and Its Performance at East China Region
Ruiyue Chen, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and Y. Weng, C. Tan, M. Fang, W. Guo, J. Cheng, L. Jiang, Q. Xing, Q. Shi, C. Wei, X. Li, Z. Chen, and X. Wang

345
Updates to the Changes Included in Amendment 78 to Annex 3: Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation
M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC; and M. K. Peterson, T. J. Helms Jr., L. Burch, and G. M. Porter

346
SkyCast: A Wind and Thermodynamic Profiling System (WTPS) for Aviation Applications
Bill Conway, Weather Decision Support Systems, International, Norman, OK; and D. Patton, S. A. McLaughlin, R. Ware, K. A. Reed, T. Wilfong, L. Blanchette, and E. M. Lau

347
Estimation of Aviation Turbulence using High Vertical-Resolution Radiosonde Data and Comparison with In Situ Flight Data
Hye-Yeong Chun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. C. Ko

348
FAA NextGen Weather Product Suite
Alfred Moosakhanian, FAA, Washington, DC

349
Offshore Precipitation Capability in Support of the FAA Caribbean Initiative
Mark S. Veillette, MIT, Lexington, MA; and M. Tucker, R. Segers, A. Moosakhanian, R. Bass, S. Bodkin, and R. Novia

350
Turbulence Assessment in Areas Identified by the Convective Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO) Product
Joseph A. Grim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kessinger and G. Meymaris

351
Optimizing Dropsonde Location to Improve Estimates of a Wind Profile at a Remote Location
Joseph A. Grim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. P. Mizzi, J. C. Knievel, and F. Vandenberghe

353
Current and Future Efforts Using 3D Cloud Fraction for Aviation Forecasting
J. Adam Kankiewicz, CIRA, Kansas City, MO; and S. Avey, S. A. Lack, and A. Cross

354
Building a Quality-Controlled Database of Meteorological Data from NASA Kennedy Space Center and the United States Air Force’s Eastern Range
James C. Brenton, Jacobs, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Barbre Jr., J. M. Orcutt, and R. K. Decker
Manuscript (356.5 kB)

356
Using an Interdisciplinary Approach to Assess General Aviation Pilot Weather Knowledge
Thomas A. Guinn, Embry-Riddle Aeronatical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and N. DeFilippis, J. M. Lanicci, Y. Ortiz, J. M. King, R. L. Thomas, and E. L. Blickensderfer

360
WARP Selectable Mosaic Generator: Weather Improvements for Air Traffic Controllers
Ryan Low, FAA, Egg Harbor Township, NJ; and J. Markiewicz

361
An Impact-Based Verification Approach for the TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)
Melissa A. Petty, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Layne, M. S. Wandishin, J. E. Hart, P. Hamer, and M. Rabellino

363
Improved Provision of Aviation Weather Information: Evaluating Legacy Products for Transition and/or Retirement
M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC; and L. Burch, T. J. Helms Jr., and T. P. Kiley Jr.

364
The Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance
Ethan David Coffel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and T. R. Thompson and R. M. Horton

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)