Program: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium (98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Mike Robinson , The MITRE Corporation ; Gordon Brooks , Air Force Weather Agency

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

Sunday | Monday | top

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Plenary Session 1

18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM

PL1.1

Transforming Communication in the Environmental Sciences: Some Thoughts from a Reluctant Participant (Invited Presentation)

Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

Monday, 8 January 2018

Sunday | Monday | top

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Plenary Session 2

Welcoming Address

Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 1

Assessing or Mitigating Weather Observation Uncertainty

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium

Cochairs: Michael Robinson, MITRE Corporation; Gordon Brooks, 557th Weather Wing

8:45 AM

1.1

The Role of Observation Uncertainty in the Verification of Global Forecasts of Convective Hazards

Laura Melling, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. Laing, M. S. Wandishin, and M. A. Petty

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1.2

EDR/RMS-G Correlation Analysis

Michael J. Emanuel, FAA, Atlantic City, NJ; and G. Meymaris, L. Cornman, J. Sherry, and D. Mulally

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1.3

The Geographical Distribution of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida

Tania M. Garza, Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT), Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and O. A. Nava and W. P. Roeder

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1.4

Resolving Gravity Waves with Himawari-8 and GOES-16 Imagery at the New Limit of Resolution and the Application to Aircraft-Scale Turbulence

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and S. M. Griffin, A. S. Bachmeier, J. Gerth, and S. Lindstrom

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1.5

On the Interpolation of Three-Dimensional Radar Observations to Flight Levels

Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 2

Advancing Forecast Capabilities for Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Decision Support

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium

Cochairs: Judy Ghiradelli, NWS; Tammy J. Farrar, FAA

10:30 AM

2.1

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts of Aviation Hazards Using Multiple Global Ensembles

Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, M. Steiner, M. Strahan, R. Bass, and C. P. Kalb

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2.2

Guidance on Optimally Presenting Probabilistic Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts for the Aviation Community

Stephanie Avey, NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and S. Alvidrez, S. A. Lack, A. Cross, J. A. Kankiewicz, and R. Bastholm

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2.3

The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) System and Applications for Aviation Forecasting

Matthew E. Pyle, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2.4

How Collaborative Working Led to the Development of Probabilistic Forecasting Informing Binary Operational Decisions at Europe's Busiest Airport, London Heathrow

Jason Louis Kelly, Met Office, Exeter, UK

Recorded Presentation

2.5

Probabilistic Guidance for Lightning Cessation Within Isolated Convection Near Cape Canaveral, Florida

11:30 AM

2.5A

Improving Decision Support for the MQ-1/MQ-9 and Boeing X-37 Using a Rapidly Updating 1-km Ensemble, a GOES-based Convection Initiation Algorithm, and Service-Based Ensemble Products

Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt Air Force Base, NE

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2.6

Improvements in the Detection and Prediction of Volcanic Ash for Aviation at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Chris Lucas, BOM, Melbourne, Australia; and R. J. Potts, M. J. Zidikheri, R. A. Dare, M. Manickam, A. Wain, and A. Bear-Crozier

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lecture 1

2018 Haurwitz Lecture

Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM

L1.1

Some Observations of Normal Modes in the Atmosphere (Invited Presentation)

George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 3

Breaking the Mold: Leveraging New Data, Capabilities, and Practices in Support of Evolving Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Operations

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium

Cochairs: Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS; Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing

3.1

Powering Aviation Nowcasting Models with New Data Source: Wireless Networks

2:00 PM

3.1A

Accuracy of New York Automated Wind Compression Tool

Victor Klimenko, AvMet Applications, Reston, VA; and M. Klopfenstein

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3.2

Evaluating High-Resolution Model Data for Aviation Impacts due to Cloud and Visibility for the San Francisco International Airport

Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and A. Cross, D. Bentley, C. S. Bartholomew, P. Buchanan, I. A. Boutle, S. Avey, and S. Alvidrez

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3.3

Advanced Weather Datasets for UAV Operations

Anuj Agrawal, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD

3.4

Multimodel-Based Clear-Air Turbulence Forecast Using Improved Ellrod−Knox Index

2:45 PM

3.4A

Assessment of Dual-Polarized Radar Coverage in the Terminal Airspaces of Commercial Airports

Jacqueline Waters, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves and A. Keys

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3.5

Operational Unmanned Mission Execution Forecasts at Dugway Proving Ground

John Pace, Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and E. N. Vernon

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3.6

Quantifying the Relationship between Storm Size and Forecast Uncertainty for Enhanced Blending

James O. Pinto, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, K. Stone, and D. Albo

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3.7

Integrating GOES-16 Satellite into Convective Porosity Determination at CWSU Houston

Roland Nunez, NWS/Center Weather Service Unit, Houston, TX; and E. Zappe

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3.8

Optimizing Prediction of Lightning Initiation by Identifying Towers of Supercooled Water with Dual-Polarization Radar

Omar A. Nava, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and W. P. Roeder

Recorded Presentation

3.9

Diagnosing Total Lightning Potential with Differential Reflectivity Anomalies

4:00 PM

3.9A

Gap-Filling Radar Observations of a Snow Squall at San Luis Valley Regional Airport

Andrew A. Rosenow, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. W. Howard and J. Meitín

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session

Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Hazard Detection, Decision Support, and Policy Advancements

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium

Chair: Gordon Brooks, 557th Weather Wing

319

Improving Weather Guidance for Aviation Decision-Making: Enhancements to Rap and HRRR Deterministic and Ensemble Prediction Systems, including Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation, Forecast, and Post-Processing Components

Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, D. C. Dowell, J. Kenyon, E. P. James, T. T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, J. M. Brown, and S. Benjamin

320

Expanding the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Suite of Aviation Guidance to Support the National Weather Service's National Blend of Models

Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Charba, P. E. Shafer, B. Glahn, F. G. Samplatsky, A. D. Schnapp, A. J. Kochenash, C. Huang, M. Allard, G. Sindic-Rancic, F. Guarriello, A. Gibbons, M. Masuda, and W. Ahue

321

Ground-Based Remote Sensing Techniques for Space Launch Decision Support

Tim Wilfong, Radiometrics Corporation, Boulder, CO; and D. Berchoff, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, N. A. Gasperoni, E. Lau, S. A. McLaughlin, R. Ware, and M. Xue

322

Blending Model and Observations for a Ceiling and Visbility Product for Alaska

Rita D. Roberts, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Cowie, J. O. Pinto, T. L. Fowler, D. Megenhardt, D. A. Wesley, and J. A. Colavito

323

Estimating Visibility from FAA Camera Installations in Remote Regions of Alaska for General Aviation Awareness

Michael Matthews, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and R. G. Hallowell

324

Transition NCAR's Graphical Turbulence Guidance Algorithm into NCEP Operations

Yali Mao, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD; and H. Y. Chuang

325

Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of Aviation Turbulence

Luke N. Storer, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and P. Gill and P. D. Williams

325A

Global Response of Clear-Air Turbulence to Climate Change

Luke N. Storer, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and P. D. Williams and M. M. Joshi

326

Unparalleled Access to Aviation Weather Data using the MetOcean Application Profile of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Coverage Service (WCS)

Steven R. Olson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and P. R. Hershberg, P. Trevelyan, and G. Percivall

327

Collaborative Digital Aviation Grid Process at the Aviation Weather Testbed and Operations Proving Ground

Austin Cross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and S. A. Lack, J. W. Scheck, S. Avey, K. J. Runk, C. M. Gravelle, D. W. Snyder, and K. L. Crandall

328

Recent Upgrads to East China ATMB High Resolution Aviation Weather Forecast Capability: Real-Time Operation of eIAWS^TM-R3R

Jing Cheng, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and S. Liu, Y. Weng, J. M. García-Rivera, Y. Li, W. Guo, Q. Xing, Q. Shi, X. Li, Z. Chen, X. Wang, and L. Jiang

329

Impacts of the Enterprise Integrated Aviation Weather System Forecast Products on Air Traffic Flow Management in East China

José M. García-Rivera, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and J. Cheng, R. Chen, W. Guo, Y. Weng, Y. Li, and L. Jiang

330

Development of the Global Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance system (G-KTG) using the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)

Dan-Bi Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun, J. H. Kim, and R. D. Sharman

331

Improving Summertime Convective Wind Forecasting in the Southeastern United States

Ray L Christensen II, U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, Barksdale Air Force Base, LA

Handout (535.9 kB)

333

Analysis of Total Lightning Flash Rates Over Florida

Thomas A. Mazzetti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg

334

Radar Thresholds and Lightning Prediction at Wallops Flight Facility

Evan Edward Thomas, NASA, Wallops Island, VA; and A. Thomas and N. Kyper

335

The Remote Oceanic Meteorology Information Operational (ROMIO) Demonstration

Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Frazier, T. A. Lindholm, J. Olivo, B. Barron, G. Blackburn, B. Watts, R. Stone, D. Keany, D. Tyler, and T. J. Horsager

Handout (411.2 kB)

336

An Update on the Global Weather Hazards Project and Next Steps

James Olivo, Basic Commerce & Industry, Inc., Moorestown, NJ; and L. Lin, V. Hoang, M. Nayote, C. Kessinger, D. Megenhardt, O. Matz, A. Ritter, D. Wolf, K. Sievers, R. Scheinhartz, and J. Cahall

Handout (1.9 MB)

337

Development of Diagnostics of Near-Cloud Aviation Turbulence based on Convective Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization

Soo-Hyun Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun, R. D. Sharman, and S. B. Trier

339

Weather Support for Collaborative Decision-Making in Aviation

Shun Liu, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and Y. Weng, W. Guo, R. Chen, J. Cheng, M. Fang, Y. Li, C. Tan, and L. Jiang

340

Advancing Effective On-Site Decision Support to the FAA Terminal Approach Control (TRACON) Facilities

342

Using Wind Profilers to Examine Non-Convective Low-Level Wind Shear in North Carolina

Ryan Ellis, NOAA/NWSFO, Raleigh, NC; and B. Smith and K. Dedeaux

343

The Intelligent and Multifunctional eIAWS Nowcasting System (IMnowcastor) and Its Performance at East China Region

Ruiyue Chen, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and Y. Weng, C. Tan, M. Fang, W. Guo, J. Cheng, L. Jiang, Q. Xing, Q. Shi, C. Wei, X. Li, Z. Chen, and X. Wang

344

U.S. Transition Plan to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Meteorological Information Exchange Model (IWXXM)

M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC

345

Updates to the Changes Included in Amendment 78 to Annex 3: Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation

M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC; and M. K. Peterson, T. J. Helms Jr., L. Burch, and G. M. Porter

346

SkyCast: A Wind and Thermodynamic Profiling System (WTPS) for Aviation Applications

Bill Conway, Weather Decision Support Systems, International, Norman, OK; and D. Patton, S. A. McLaughlin, R. Ware, K. A. Reed, T. Wilfong, L. Blanchette, and E. M. Lau

347

Estimation of Aviation Turbulence using High Vertical-Resolution Radiosonde Data and Comparison with In Situ Flight Data

Hye-Yeong Chun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. C. Ko

348

FAA NextGen Weather Product Suite

Alfred Moosakhanian, FAA, Washington, DC

349

Offshore Precipitation Capability in Support of the FAA Caribbean Initiative

Mark S. Veillette, MIT, Lexington, MA; and M. Tucker, R. Segers, A. Moosakhanian, R. Bass, S. Bodkin, and R. Novia

350

Turbulence Assessment in Areas Identified by the Convective Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO) Product

Joseph A. Grim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kessinger and G. Meymaris

351

Optimizing Dropsonde Location to Improve Estimates of a Wind Profile at a Remote Location

Joseph A. Grim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. P. Mizzi, J. C. Knievel, and F. Vandenberghe

353

Current and Future Efforts Using 3D Cloud Fraction for Aviation Forecasting

J. Adam Kankiewicz, CIRA, Kansas City, MO; and S. Avey, S. A. Lack, and A. Cross

354

Building a Quality-Controlled Database of Meteorological Data from NASA Kennedy Space Center and the United States Air Force’s Eastern Range

James C. Brenton, Jacobs, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Barbre Jr., J. M. Orcutt, and R. K. Decker

Manuscript (356.5 kB)

355

Developing a High-Resolution Extreme Weather Event Climatology for the Kennedy Space Center Using a Combination of High-Density Observations and Detailed Infrastructure Mapping

John M. Lanicci, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

Handout (3.1 MB)

356

Using an Interdisciplinary Approach to Assess General Aviation Pilot Weather Knowledge

Thomas A. Guinn, Embry–Riddle Aeronatical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and N. DeFilippis, J. M. Lanicci, Y. Ortiz, J. M. King, R. L. Thomas, and E. L. Blickensderfer

357

Weather Product Latency Versus Data Age: Differences and Impacts on Aviation

Randall Bass, FAA, Washington, DC

Handout (4.0 MB)

358

Using Historical Analogs to Assist in Turbulence Forecasting

359

In Situ EDR Algorithm Standards Analyses

360

WARP Selectable Mosaic Generator: Weather Improvements for Air Traffic Controllers

Ryan Low, FAA, Egg Harbor Township, NJ; and J. Markiewicz

361