Terminal Area Weather Event Translation Assessment

In support of its Reduced Weather Impact – Weather Forecast Improvements (RWI-WFI) program, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) New Weather Concept Development branch tasked MITRE’s Center for Programs and Technology (CPT) with examining current aviation weather forecasts and determining if they can support FAA’s vision for terminal airspace and airport air traffic management (ATM) decision-making. That vision is described in the Future of the National Airspace System (NAS) – 2030 V2.1, as well as in the operational improvements defined in the 2017 NAS Segment Implementation Plan (NSIP).

To accomplish this task, MITRE will review the accuracy of available weather forecasts in time and space, along with the availability of appropriate weather translation mechanisms. The following are the three key research questions that will be investigated:

1. Is current weather forecast information (e.g., TAFs, terminal winds, etc.) sufficient for strategic planning purposes for terminal operations?

2. Which emerging probabilistic forecast products, used in conjunction with which legacy and/or emerging deterministic forecast products, might best support terminal and airport ATM decision-making, and how?

3. Are there weather event translation mechanisms that can be used for terminal airspace and airport configuration decision-making, as described in the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) ATM-Weather Integration Plan Version 2.0?

This paper will primarily focus on research question #1, and partially address research questions #2 and #3