An Impact-Based Verification Approach for the TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)

In 2016 and 2017, the Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section of NOAA/ESRL/GSD was funded by the NWS Aviation and Space Weather Services Branch to develop a verification tool for the TFM Convective Forecast, produced by the NWS Aviation Weather Center, to replace the verification capabilities originally provided by the Real Time Verification System (RTVS). The resulting web-based application, the Convective Weather Verification Service (CWVS), uses an algorithm known as the Flow Constraint Index (FCI) to convert weather information into airspace constraints. The FCI is applied to both the forecast and the observations, and verification is performed in constraint space to evaluate TCF performance with respect to its ability to predict convection impactful to aviation operations.

The version of CWVS released in 2017 incorporated enhancements based on user feedback, including geographical maps of forecast and observations, both raw and constraint-based, for visual comparison. The tool also provides a look-back capability for reviewing performance of TCF for past events, and supplementary meteorological-based verification to evaluate TCF performance with respect to product definition.

This presentation will provide background on the use of FCI for verification of convective weather products, an overview of CWVS features, and future work planned for the tool.