Expanding the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Suite of Aviation Guidance to Support the National Weather Service's National Blend of Models

The National Weather Service (NWS) produces National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast guidance to provide NWS forecasters with a skillful and spatially consistent gridded starting point for making National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts. The NBM is a key component to the NWS’s efforts to evolve and build a Weather Ready Nation. In 2017, the NBM began producing guidance for the 1- to 36-h period at hourly resolution and added ceiling height and visibility guidance to support NWS’s digital aviation services.

The NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) provides skillful aviation forecast guidance through the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). The LAMP system provides hourly updates of station-based forecast and Gridded LAMP (GLMP) guidance on the NDFD 2.5-km grid, in hourly increments to 25 hours. The Gridded LAMP guidance is a critical component of the NBM for aviation in the very short range. In 2017, major improvements were made operational, specifically: implementing the GLMP “Meld” which statistically incorporates model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) into GLMP to improve ceiling height and visibility guidance; adding 1-h gridded convection and lightning guidance which improves over the 2-h guidance by statistically incorporating HRRR model output, Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor data, and total lightning data; and modifying the system to use the most-recent METAR and SPECI observations. These improvements result in improved GLMP guidance which benefits the NBM.

As the NBM evolves, the GLMP guidance must also evolve to provide the best possible inputs to the NBM. In response to growing NBM requirements, GLMP guidance is being modified in a number of ways, specifically: 1) GLMP ceiling height and visibility guidance elements are being redeveloped to realize potential improvements due to the evolving HRRR model which is a key input into Gridded LAMP, 2) GLMP guidance will be expanded to cover the 36-hour period at least 4 times daily to support the NBM, 3) the spatial extent of the GLMP domain over the CONUS will be expanded to be consistent with the NBM CONUS domain, and 4) new elements will be added to the GLMP suite of guidance to provide additional inputs in support of the NBM.

This presentation will summarize MDL’s development efforts to improve and expand the GLMP guidance in order to provide the most skillful guidance possible in the short-term period of 1-36 hours to support the NBM. Verification and case studies will be presented, and plans for implementation will be outlined. Disclaimer: This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.