Using Historical Analogs to Assist in Turbulence Forecasting

The rapid development of the aviation industry and corresponding increase in air traffic has made the need for new turbulence detection techniques more apparent. This work focused on a novel utilization of the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems (CIPS) historical 31-year analog database for turbulence detection in three separate historical case studies. Currently, the CIPS analog calculates indices for flight rules, visibility, and ceiling. The creation of turbulence indices (Ellrod-Knox Index, Bulk Richardson Number, Divergence Tendency, and Eddy Dissipation Rate) within the CIPS system allows for the analysis of environments where turbulence patterns occur within a specific synoptic system setup. Three case studies were performed to verify the accuracy of the existing turbulence indices and to determine if the CIPS analog system is viable to aid in turbulence forecasting.