Session 2 Advancing Forecast Capabilities for Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Decision Support

Monday, 8 January 2018: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Sixth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium
Cochairs:
Judy Ghiradelli, NWS, Meteorological Development Lab, Digital Forecast Services Branch, Silver Spring, MD and Tammy J. Farrar, FAA, Aviation Weather Division, Washington, DC

Papers:
10:30 AM
2.1
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts of Aviation Hazards Using Multiple Global Ensembles
Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, M. Steiner, M. Strahan, R. Bass, and C. P. Kalb
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2.2
Guidance on Optimally Presenting Probabilistic Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts for the Aviation Community
Stephanie Avey, NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and S. Alvidrez, S. A. Lack, A. Cross, J. A. Kankiewicz, and R. Bastholm
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.3
The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) System and Applications for Aviation Forecasting
Matthew E. Pyle, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2.4
How Collaborative Working Led to the Development of Probabilistic Forecasting Informing Binary Operational Decisions at Europe's Busiest Airport, London Heathrow
Jason Louis Kelly, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Recorded Presentation

2.5
Probabilistic Guidance for Lightning Cessation Within Isolated Convection Near Cape Canaveral, Florida

11:30 AM
2.5A
Improving Decision Support for the MQ-1/MQ-9 and Boeing X-37 Using a Rapidly Updating 1-km Ensemble, a GOES-based Convection Initiation Algorithm, and Service-Based Ensemble Products
Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt Air Force Base, NE
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2.6
Improvements in the Detection and Prediction of Volcanic Ash for Aviation at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Chris Lucas, BOM, Melbourne, Australia; and R. J. Potts, M. J. Zidikheri, R. A. Dare, M. Manickam, A. Wain, and A. Bear-Crozier
Recorded Presentation

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