Current and Future Efforts Using 3D Cloud Fraction for Aviation Forecasting

Many National Weather Service (NWS) forecast products like the TAF, G-AIRMET, SIGMET, fog advisories, and area forecast include information regarding cloud and visibility (C&V), but these forecasts are not created from the same underlying source of information. This can lead to the potential for inconsistency between different forecasts for the same parameters. Current efforts funded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have the ultimate goal of providing a unified common operating picture (COP) for C&V forecasts across the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the NWS.

Recent efforts at the NOAA’s Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) have focused on leveraging information that can be derived from 3-D forecast model cloud fraction to support COP C&V forecast needs. Forecast models being evaluated include the HRRR, HiresW-ARW, HiresW-NMMB and NAM CONUS NEST for both deterministic and probabilistic C&V forecast needs. Preliminary results of AWT research into improved C&V forecasts based on hi-resolution model 3-D cloud fraction fields will be presented.

Disclaimer: This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.