Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of Aviation Turbulence

Turbulence remains one of the leading causes of aviation incidents. Climate change is predicted to increase the occurrence of Clear-Air turbulence therefore forecasting turbulence will become more important in the future. Currently the two World Area Forecast Centres (WAFCs) use deterministic models to predict aviation turbulence, however it has been shown that ensemble forecasts can improve the forecast skill. Here we show that by combining two ensembles we have similar forecast skill to a single ensemble and a large improvement in forecast value at low cost/ loss ratios. This is consistent with previous work showing that the use of ensembles in turbulence forecasting is useful and by using a multi-model approach we can further improve the value for flight planners and pilots. This approach is an effective way to improve the forecast skill and provide the pilots and flight planners with more information about the forecast confidence. This then allows them to make a more informed decision into what action needs to be taken such as diverting around the turbulence or putting the seat belt sign on. This approach is intended to be made operational in the next few years and this study shows it is a useful improvement.