Automated Severe Thunderstorm Guidance from the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model within the Hazardous Weather Testbed

The ProbSevere model is an automated nowcasting application for severe thunderstorm diagnosis and prediction, created in partnership within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and University of Wisconsin – Madison Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). Experimental ProbSevere products (ProbSevere, ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTornado) were delivered in real-time to the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s (NSSL) Probabilistic Hazards Information system (PHI) at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in the springs of 2016 and 2017. In the HWT/PHI simulated warning environment, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters were able to use the automated guidance of ProbSevere to issue fully or partially automated probabilistic alert and warning products to users. This presentation focuses on the ProbSevere products’ performance, forecaster incorporation of the automated ProbSevere guidance, and overall user feedback from PHI and the HWT Experimental Warning Program. Progress in transitioning the ProbSevere model to NWS operations will also be presented.