An Integrated Scenario-Based Evacuation Framework: The Coupling of Meteorological–Hydrological–Hydrodynamic Models to an Evacuation Model

Hurricane evacuation decisions are complex due to the inherent uncertainty within the hurricane events and the interconnectivity of the evolutions of the system. For the case of hurricane evacuations, there are three important aspects that must be considered: 1) there are many interactions within and across the natural, infrastructure, and human systems, 2) they are dynamic, and 3) there is uncertainty in how they evolve. There has been significant research into hurricane forecasting and evacuations; however, none of these have looked at the connection of these three important aspects – dynamics, uncertainty, and system interactions. Within this work, we have developed a new integrated modeling framework that models the hazards associated with the hurricane using an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios for the possible ways a hurricane may evolve. The system develops time-dependent, total water level and wind speed maps, along with capturing the dynamic decision-making of emergency managers and residents, and the dynamic movement of residents over the course of the event. The framework uses a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates the hazards, resident behavior, and traffic modeling to support the dynamic decision-making of the emergency managers. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the component parts of the framework, how they are dynamically coupled, and an example of the guidance it provides in the context of a case study based on Hurricane Isabel in 2003.