7.2 Real-Time Storm Surge Forecasting Systems Research, Design, and Development

Tuesday, 9 January 2018: 1:45 PM
Room 12B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Sergey V. Vinogradov, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Myers, Y. Funakoshi, S. Moghimi, and J. Calzada-Morrero

Numerical prediction systems slated to run operationally for years require a thorough design plan to allow for future updates and functional additions. Considerations include a spectrum of factors, from the back-end model’s lifecycle, to front-end information requirements, to ongoing research improving the fidelity of the product. NOAA/National Ocean Service’s Coast Survey Development Laboratory develops and transitions to operations complex state-of-the-art storm surge forecasting systems with a mission to protect lives and property along the US coasts. To illustrate NOAA’s research-to-operations pathway, we focus on evolution of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecasting System (ESTOFS). Over 6 years since the initial implementation, the applications of the ESTOFS have expanded along with its capabilities. Besides incremental improvements to the model resolution and geographical coverage, several comprehensive functionalities are part of long-term implementation planning. In collaboration with external research groups, we are currently transitioning methods allowing data assimilation of the coastal water levels into the operational framework, with a potential to assimilate satellite altimetry in the future. In lieu of the NOAA-wide unified modeling strategy, we are working across the agency towards coupling a storm surge model with wave and river modeling components to provide truly integrated water level guidance. Ongoing front-end upgrades are driven by increased spatial detail of the model output, and the need for efficient, quick and simple graphical delivery of flood guidance to end users and emergency authorities.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner