Tactical Adaptation to Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Developing World

Professor Webster’s research on tropical meteorology and climate dynamics has been applied to developing flood, heat wave, and tropical cyclone forecasts for the monsoon regions in South Asia. He has actively worked with developing countries and development banks to support tactical adaptation strategies using forecasted extreme weather events. In 2006, Professor Webster co-founded Climate Forecast Applications Network, to translate weather and climate research into forecast products that support the mitigation of weather and climate risk for public and private sector decision makers.

Professor Webster has successfully applied his extensive theoretical and modeling knowledge to successfully build a probabilistic rainfall and river discharge forecasting system for Southeast Asia. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were predicted in real time in 2007 and 2008, providing early warning and subsequent agricultural and household savings.¹ He has developed an even more advanced flood prediction scheme for the Indus Valley² but Pakistani authorities have not used it. Webster and his team contributed to the development of South Asia’s first Heat –Health Action Plan in Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India).³ He has also advocated for better tropical cyclone forecasts for South Asia, especially in light of Cyclone Nargis that struck Myanmar.⁴

¹Webster P. J. and J. Jian 2011: Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A( Math, Phys and Eng.) Volume: 369 Issue: 1956 4768-4797 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0160. DEC 13 2011

²Shrestha K.Y., P.J. Webster, and V.E. Toma, 2014: An Atmospheric-Hydrologic Forecasting Scheme for the Indus River Basin, Journal of Hydrometeorology. Available at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-13-051.1

³Knowlton K., PJ Webster, VE. Toma, and thirteen additional authors: Development and Implementation of South Asia's First Heat-Health Action Plan in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. International J. Environmental Res. and Public Health.

⁴Bangladesh's Example for a Post-Nargis World, by Andrew Freedman Washington Post, May 14, 2008.