Improvement of Tropical Variability and Skill of Seasonal ENSO3.4 Prediction in the FGOALS-f Climate System Model

FGOALS-f is a next-generation Climate System Model from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), which is featured on the high resolution up to 0.25° globally and a scale-aware parameterization of resolving cumulus processes. The results indicate FGOALS-f mitigates the double ITCZ problem, and well reproduces the eastward propagating MJO in the boreal winter and northward propagating TISO over equatorial Indian ocean in the boreal summer, which are taken as the long-standing challenges in the field of climate modeling. ENSO teleconnection pattern is demonstrated by the leading mode of SST in the interannual timescale. FGOALS-f gives not only a reasonable pattern but also the realistic explained variance for the 1st EOF. The behavior of the tropical cyclone is also reported. Recently, a real-time dynamical seasonal climate forecast system has been setup with FGOALS-f. And 36-year monthly hind-cast predictions along with 24 ensemble members have been carried out. Due to the improvement of tropical variability in FGOALS-f model, the 6-month lead skill of ENSO3.4 index is 0.76, and this skill is quite stable in the most recent decades.