Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Program Chair: Fuqing Zhang , Pennsylvania State Univ.

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

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4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018


Plenary Session 1
18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
4:00 PM
PL1.1
Transforming Communication in the Environmental Sciences: Some Thoughts from a Reluctant Participant (Invited Presentation)
Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

Monday, 8 January 2018

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8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Model Physics Uncertainty
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Cochairs: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
8:45 AM
1.1
A Perspective on Radiative Transfer and Cloud Microphysics in Climate Models (Invited Presentation)
Kuo-Nan Liou, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1.2
Representation of Cloud Radiative Effects in Climate Sensitivity and Predictability (Invited Presentation)
Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1.3
Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Large-Scale Environment in a Hierarchy of Model Simulations (Invited Presentation)
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr., Z. Feng, K. Sakaguchi, and Q. Yang
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Paleoclimate Analysis and Projection
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.
10:30 AM
2.1
Loooong Tails: Reducing Uncertainty in Projections of Sea Level (Core Science Keynote)
Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.2
Tibetan Multiple Spheres Interactions, Dynamics, and Global Linkages: A Paleoclimate Perspective from the World's Highest Ice Fields (Invited Presentation)
Lonnie G Thompson, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and T. Yao, M. E. Davis, E. Mosley-Thompson, and S. E. Porter
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.3
Observations, Reanalysis, and Modeling of the Regional Climate and Water Cycle at the Earth’s Third Pole (Invited Presentation)
Deliang Chen, Univ. of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Manuscript (124.3 kB)

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.
2:00 PM
L1.1
Some Observations of Normal Modes in the Atmosphere (Invited Presentation)
George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
Data Assimilation, Reanalysis and Data–Model Integration
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
2:00 PM
3.1
Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed for Climate System Applications (Invited Presentation)
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3.2
Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects (Invited Presentation)
Ronald Gelaro, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3.3
Exploring Online Data Assimilation for Paleoclimate Reconstruction Using an Idealized OSSE Framework
Atsushi Okazaki, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and T. Miyoshi, K. Yoshimura, and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3.4
Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models that Learn from Global Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations (Invited Presentation)
Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Lan, A. Stuart, and J. Teixeira

3:45 PM
3.5
Tests of Single-Column Model Physics Using RACORO Data and Bayesian Calibration
Charles Jackson, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and A. M. Vogelmann and W. Lin
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
3.6
Ensemble-Based Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation (ESSPE)—A Generalized Data Assimilation Software Infrastructure for Earth System Data–Model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Poster Session - Monday
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
365
Effects of Ocean Mesoscale Eddies on Atmospheric Circulation and Predictability
Yinglai Jia, Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao, China; and P. Chang, I. Szunyogh, and R. Saravanan

366
The Madden–Julian Oscillation, Forecast Initialization, and Subseasonal Predictability
Charles Jones, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA

367
A Preliminary Investigation of the Conditional Practical Predictability of the 31 May 2013 Heavy-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective System
Aidan R. Kuroski, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

368
A Spurious Warming Trend in the NMME Equatorial Pacific SST Hindcasts
Chul-Su Shin, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang

369
Predictability of Sundowners—A Downslope Windstorm near Santa Barbara, California
Craig M. Smith, DRI, Reno, NV; and B. J. Hatchett and M. L. Kaplan

370
Evaluation Study for Predictability of a Heavy Localized Rainfall Using WRF and a Climate Change Database
Pham Van Phuc, Shimizu Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

371
Quantifying High Temporal and Spatial Forecast Improvements Attributable to Radio Occultation and IR Imagery Data in HWRF
Suzanna Diener, The Aerospace Corporation, Boulder, CO; and M. D. McAtee

Handout (859.0 kB)

372
Evaluating Tropical Cyclones Simulated by a Global Convection-Permitting Model
K. Ryder Fox, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and F. Judt and D. A. Ahijevych

373
A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System
Yehui Chang, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster, H. Wang, S. Schubert, and M. J. Suarez

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4
Atmospheric Composition and Chemistry
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Kenneth J. Davis, Pennsylvania State Univ.
8:30 AM
4.1
Quantifying the Sources and Sinks of CO2 and CH4 in the Atmosphere (Invited Presentation)
Steven Wofsy, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4.2
Photochemical Models: Assessing Uncertainty and Sensitivity to Model Input (Invited Presentation)
William Brune, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
4.3
Constraining Surface Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Using Advanced Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation Techniques (Invited Presentation)
Hans W. Chen, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, T. Lauvaux, K. J. Davis, and R. B. Alley
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Land Surface and Hydrology
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Zong-Liang Yang, The University of Texas at Austin
10:30 AM
5.1
Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystems and Land Surface Processes—A Historical Perspective and a Look at Future Directions (Invited Presentation)
Robert E. Dickinson, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
5.2
Monitoring and Evaluating Hydroclimate Models for Forecasting Precipitation Variabilities and Changes Using PERSIANN-CDR (Invited Presentation)
Soroosh Sorooshian, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and K. Hsu, P. Nguyen, H. Ashouri, and T. Yang
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
5.3
Hydrobiogeochemical Data Assimilation Using Ensemble-Based Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation (Invited Presentation)
Yuning Shi, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and L. Li, D. Xiao, and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6
Earth System and Beyond
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Cochairs: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
1:30 PM
6.1
Predicting the Response of Future Food Systems to Climate Change (Invited Presentation)
William Easterling, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
6.2
Earth System Prediction and Predictability: A Regional Example for the Gulf of Mexico (Invited Presentation)
Antonio Busalacchi, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, MA
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
6.3
Key Findings from the U.S.–India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop on Development and Application of Downscaling Climate Projections (Invited Presentation)
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
6.4
Skill of U.S. Coastal SST Forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. Hervieux, M. Jacox, C. Stock, K. Pegion, and E. J. Becker
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
6.5
The Practical Predictability of Storm Surge Inundation from Tropical Cyclones
Kathryn R. Fossell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych, R. E. Morss, C. Snyder, and C. Davis
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
6.6
Butterfly Effects of the First and Second Kinds in Lorenz Models
Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State Univ., San Diego, CA; and R. A. Pielke Sr., X. Zeng, I. D. A. Santos, S. Faghih-Naini, J. Buchnann, and R. Atlas

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Poster Session—Tuesday
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
781
Understanding Turbulence Kinetic Energy Transfer in and between Atmospheric Synoptic and Mesoscales
Masih Eghdami, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; and S. Bhushan and A. P. Barros

782
Improvement of Tropical Variability and Skill of Seasonal ENSO3.4 Prediction in the FGOALS-f Climate System Model
Qing Bao, IAP, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu, G. X. Wu, B. He, X. Wang, X. Wu, J. Li, and L. Wang

783
Spectral Signatures of Earth's Climate Variability over Five Years from CrIS, AIRS, and IASI
Ester Nikolla, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and R. O. Knuteson, H. Revercomb, M. Feltz, and D. Deslover

784
Probabilistic Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers Using an Ensemble Superparameterization Approach
Aneesh Subramanian, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. A. Lavers, M. Matsueda, F. Vitart, T. N. Palmer, and F. M. Ralph

Applied Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) to LETKF system

785
Bayesian Analysis of a Simple Model of the Effect of Ocean Ventilation on Ocean Heat Uptake
Balasubramanya Nadiga, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and N. Urban

786
Projection of Climate Change Scenarios for Precipitation and Temperature at the Local Scale Using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
Metekiya Gulacha, NWS, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

787
Comparing the Skill Displayed by Two Statistical Schemes that Interpret the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Control Model and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model
Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Manuscript (472.7 kB)

Handout (147.8 kB)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

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12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break
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