Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Program Chair: Fuqing Zhang , Pennsylvania State Univ.

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Model Physics Uncertainty
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Cochairs: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
9:45 AM
1.3

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Paleoclimate Analysis and Projection
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.
10:30 AM
2.1
11:00 AM
2.2

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
Data Assimilation, Reanalysis and Data–Model Integration
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
3:00 PM
3.3
Exploring Online Data Assimilation for Paleoclimate Reconstruction Using an Idealized OSSE Framework
Atsushi Okazaki, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and T. Miyoshi, K. Yoshimura, and F. Zhang
3:15 PM
3.4
Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models that Learn from Global Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations (Invited Presentation)
Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Lan, A. Stuart, and J. Teixeira

3:45 PM
3.5
Tests of Single-Column Model Physics Using RACORO Data and Bayesian Calibration
Charles Jackson, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and A. M. Vogelmann and W. Lin

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Poster Session - Monday
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
365
Effects of Ocean Mesoscale Eddies on Atmospheric Circulation and Predictability
Yinglai Jia, Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao, China; and P. Chang, I. Szunyogh, and R. Saravanan

366
368
A Spurious Warming Trend in the NMME Equatorial Pacific SST Hindcasts
Chul-Su Shin, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang

369
Predictability of Sundowners—A Downslope Windstorm near Santa Barbara, California
Craig M. Smith, DRI, Reno, NV; and B. J. Hatchett and M. L. Kaplan

371
372
Evaluating Tropical Cyclones Simulated by a Global Convection-Permitting Model
K. Ryder Fox, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and F. Judt and D. A. Ahijevych

373
A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System
Yehui Chang, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster, H. Wang, S. Schubert, and M. J. Suarez

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4
Atmospheric Composition and Chemistry
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Kenneth J. Davis, Pennsylvania State Univ.
9:30 AM
4.3
Constraining Surface Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Using Advanced Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation Techniques (Invited Presentation)
Hans W. Chen, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang, T. Lauvaux, K. J. Davis, and R. B. Alley

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Land Surface and Hydrology
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Zong-Liang Yang, The University of Texas at Austin
11:00 AM
5.2
11:30 AM
5.3

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6
Earth System and Beyond
Location: Room 4ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Cochairs: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
1:30 PM
6.1
2:00 PM
6.2
Earth System Prediction and Predictability: A Regional Example for the Gulf of Mexico (Invited Presentation)
Antonio Busalacchi, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO
3:00 PM
6.4
Skill of U.S. Coastal SST Forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. Hervieux, M. Jacox, C. Stock, K. Pegion, and E. J. Becker
3:15 PM
6.5
The Practical Predictability of Storm Surge Inundation from Tropical Cyclones
Kathryn R. Fossell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych, R. E. Morss, C. Snyder, and C. Davis
3:30 PM
6.6
Butterfly Effects of the First and Second Kinds in Lorenz Models
Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State Univ., San Diego, CA; and R. A. Pielke Sr., X. Zeng, I. D. A. Santos, S. Faghih-Naini, J. Buchnann, and R. Atlas

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Poster Session—Tuesday
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
781
Understanding Turbulence Kinetic Energy Transfer in and between Atmospheric Synoptic and Mesoscales
Masih Eghdami, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; and S. Bhushan and A. P. Barros

782
Improvement of Tropical Variability and Skill of Seasonal ENSO3.4 Prediction in the FGOALS-f Climate System Model
Qing Bao, IAP, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu, G. X. Wu, B. He, X. Wang, X. Wu, J. Li, and L. Wang

783
Spectral Signatures of Earth's Climate Variability over Five Years from CrIS, AIRS, and IASI
Ester Nikolla, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and R. O. Knuteson, H. Revercomb, M. Feltz, and D. Deslover

784
Probabilistic Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers Using an Ensemble Superparameterization Approach
Aneesh Subramanian, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. A. Lavers, M. Matsueda, F. Vitart, T. N. Palmer, and F. M. Ralph

785

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break