Predicting the Response of Future Food Systems to Climate Change (Invited Presentation)

To develop a predictive understanding of how climate change is likely to affect regional and global food security requires a holistic approach that includes the essential food system components of on-farm production, processing and storage, transportation and distribution, and consumption. Moreover, the approach must anticipate adaptative responses of the system as the climate changes. The literature is full of studies that simulate the effects of climate change on different types of crops in different locations. Those studies only tell part of the story, focusing mainly on climate effects on crop yields. Evidence suggests that climate change will also directly affect other parts of the food system such as food transportation and could complicate food storage in addition to affecting consumer tastes and preferences. This paper demonstrates the research gaps that must be filled in order to develop a truly predictive model of climate change effects on regional and global food security.