Evaluating and Predicting Impacts of the MJO on Various Global Crop Production Regions

While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is used as a forecast tool for short-term weather prediction by utilizing daily records dating back to the late 1970s, it is not commonly utilized to understand impacts on the global agricultural space. By using the MJO as a forecast tool for weather impacts on the agriculture market with several days to a few weeks lead time, it's possible to learn how the MJO can actually impact crop production across relevant global crop regions of North America, Australia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and South America. The Research & Insight team within Thomson Reuters has increasingly monitored and applied MJO analogs to understand risks across these regions for various crops, including but not limited to corn, soybeans, wheat, and rapeseed, among others. This study/presentation will review and illustrate the importance of these methods on the agricultural market for various times of year, regions, and crops, while showcasing various examples where the MJO did or did not work as a successful forecast tool.