Communicating Uncertainty: Progress and Outstanding Challenges in the NOAA Testbeds

Improving the communication of forecast uncertainty remains a core priority for the weather enterprise as a whole (NAS 2006) and NOAA/NWS in particular (NOAA 2012). For the last (3) years, researchers working in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed and Hydrometeorological Testbed have experimented with a variety of probabilistic tools, in time scales ranging from days to minutes, and explored the ways those tools can be used for forecasting and communication by NWS forecasters, emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists. This session will report on key findings from these projects, documenting current trajectories of development and outstanding conceptual and technical challenges.