Session 1 Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part I: Representation of Model Uncertainty

Monday, 8 January 2018: 8:45 AM-10:00 AM
Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs:
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA and Daniel Hodyss, NRL, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA

Representation of Model Uncertainty

Papers:
8:45 AM
1.1
Evaluation of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies on Convective-Resolving Ensemble Forecasts of Heavy Rainfall Events in New York and Taiwan
Kevin Lupo, SUNY/Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and S. C. Yang and R. Torn
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1.2
Introducing Land Surface Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, W. Kolczynski Jr., and P. Pegion
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1.3
Preliminary Testing of Stochastic Physics Schemes for the Next Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Implementation
Bing Fu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, D. Hou, W. Kolczynski Jr., P. J. Pegion, and Y. Zhu
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.4
Parameterizing Model Uncertainty due to Unresolved Dynamics in Ensemble Forecasts (Invited Presentation)
Jeffrey Whitaker, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

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