Joint Session 57 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Program Chairs: Tara L. Jensen , NCAR/RAL ; Matthew Peroutka , NOAA/NWS ; Scott Sellars , Univ. of California ; Elizabeth A. Satterfield , NRL

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Session 1
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part I: Representation of Model Uncertainty
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL; Daniel Hodyss, NRL
9:00 AM
1.2
Introducing Land Surface Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, W. Kolczynski Jr., and P. Pegion

9:15 AM
1.3
Preliminary Testing of Stochastic Physics Schemes for the Next Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Implementation
Bing Fu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, D. Hou, W. Kolczynski Jr., P. J. Pegion, and Y. Zhu

9:30 AM
1.4
Parameterizing Model Uncertainty due to Unresolved Dynamics in Ensemble Forecasts (Invited Presentation)
Jeffrey Whitaker, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Session 2
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part II: Methods and Practice
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory; Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.
10:45 AM
2.2
Obtaining Consistent Probabilistic Predictions through Statistical Post-Processing of Ensembles
Nina Schuhen, Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway; and T. L. Thorarinsdottir and F. Stordal

11:00 AM
2.3
A Smart Extension of the Search Space for Use with the Analog Ensemble Technique
Laura Clemente-Harding, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and G. S. Young, G. Cervone, L. Delle Monache, and S. E. Haupt

11:30 AM
2.5
Performance of the 2017 Real-Time HWRF-Based Ensemble and Combined HWRF/HMON/COAMPS-TC Multimodel Ensemble
Zhan Zhang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and W. Wang, L. Zhu, B. Liu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

11:45 AM
2.6
Initial Verification of IMPROVER: The New Met Office Post-Processing System
Jonathan Flowerdew, UKMO, Exeter, UK; and R. Crocker and R. Harbord

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Session 3
Verification and Validation — Part I: Communicating Probabilistic Information and Predictive Skill
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: William Campbell, NRL; Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
2:00 PM
3.1
Fostering Open Communication about Forecast Improvement (Invited Presentation)
Betsy Weatherhead, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

2:30 PM
3.2
Unified Verification System
Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. L. Jensen, G. Manikin, L. F. Bosart, B. Strong, M. Ek, and V. Tallapragada

2:45 PM
3.3
Enhancing Community Collaborations through NWP Software Containers
John Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, K. R. Fossell, M. Harrold, T. L. Jensen, T. Burek, and J. Exby

3:00 PM
Break

3:15 PM
3.4
An Overview of Verification in Support of GSD Model Development and the Evolution of Process-Oriented Analysis Tools
Jeffrey A. Hamilton, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, K. Holub, M. B. Smith, R. Pierce, and B. Strong

3:30 PM
3.5
Evaluation of Global Model Physics Advancements using a Hierarchical Framework
Man Zhang, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, J. K. Wolff, G. J. Firl, L. Bernardet, J. K. Henderson, H. Jiang, and G. Grell

3:45 PM
3.6
4:00 PM
3.7
Linearization of Air Temperatures on the Pacific Ocean on the Equatorial Line
César Diez Chirinos, Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria, Lima, Peru; and C. J. Solano Sr.
Manuscript (17.1 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Monday Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
120A
160
Overview of National Blend of Models Version 3.1. Part II: Bulk Verification and High Impact Examples
Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. L. Huntemann, D. W. Plumb Jr., and D. E. Rudack

162
Using the Big Weather Web Ensemble to Examine Systemic Biases in WRF Model Parameterizations
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. R. Tyle and G. R. Herman

163
NAEFS System Upgrade and Its New Products
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and Y. Luo

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Themed Joint Session 1
Development and Communication of High-Resolution, Ensemble Forecast Information for Forecasting Extreme Weather
Location: Room 5ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 34th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS
8:45 AM
TJ1.2
Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) toward an Operational Convective-Allowing Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast System
Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, J. Beck, I. Jankov, T. Alcott, B. D. Jamison, J. A. Hamilton, J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin

9:15 AM
TJ1.4
NWS Forecasters’ Interpretations, Uses, and Needs Regarding High-Resolution, Ensemble-Based Guidance
Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss, I. Jankov, C. R. Alexander, T. Alcott, D. Nietfeld, and T. Jensen

9:30 AM
TJ1.5
Thorough Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Forecasts
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. R. Nielsen and R. S. Schumacher

9:45 AM
Discussion


Session 4
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part III: S2S
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Chair: Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL
8:30 AM
4.1
9:15 AM
4.4
Novel Extended-Range Storm Impact Outlooks for Finland
Terhi K. Laurila, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and O. Hyvärinen, A. Mäkelä, A. Vajda, and H. Gregow

9:30 AM
4.5
Predicting Regime Changes in the Lorenz Model with Ensemble Spread
Erin M. Lynch, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. C. Eure, E. Kalnay, and S. Sharma

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Themed Joint Session 4
Machine Learning and Statistics in Data Science
Location: Room 7 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
11:00 AM
TJ4.2
Convolutional Neural Network for Rain/No-Rain Detection from Satellite Observations
Kun Zhang, Beijing Piesat Information and Technology Limited, Beijing, China; and H. Xia, H. Zhang, C. Lin, and W. Guo

11:15 AM
TJ4.3
Self-Organizing Maps for Tornadic Near-Storm Environments
Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

11:30 AM
TJ4.4
11:45 AM
TJ4.5
Spatial Structure Evaluation of Unsupervised Deep Learning for Atmospheric Data
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt and D. W. Nychka


Session 5
Verification and Validation — Part II: High Resolution
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Chair: Dana Strom, AceInfo Solutions
10:30 AM
5.1
Communicating Predictive Skill Through Recent Advances in MET
Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. Fowler, and B. Brown

10:45 AM
5.2
A Community Effort for Convection Allowing Mode (CAM) Scorecarding
Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, A. J. Clark, P. L. Heinselman, J. K. Wolff, P. Skinner, C. R. Alexander, J. Carley, G. Manikin, and I. L. Jirak

11:00 AM
5.3
Evaluation of Hail Size Forecasting Models during the 2016 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Adams-Selin, G. Thompson, B. Gallo, A. McGovern, G. Romine, C. Schwartz, N. Snook, and R. A. Sobash

11:15 AM
5.4
11:30 AM
5.5
Modeling and Correcting Reporting Biases in the SPC Tornado Database
Corey K. Potvin, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, and H. E. Brooks

11:45 AM
5.6
An Evaluation of Ensembles Available within the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT)
Jeff Beck, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov, J. K. Wolff, M. Harrold, T. Hertneky, P. S. Skinner, and J. M. Brown

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Session 6
Verification and Validation — Part III: Decision Support/Process Oriented
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
1:30 PM
6.1
Statistical Design of Experiments in Numerical Weather Prediction: Emerging Results
Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), NM; and R. S. Penc and J. W. Raby

Handout (2.9 MB) Handout (2.9 MB)

2:00 PM
6.3
Objective Evaluation of a WRF-RTFDDA High-Resolution Deterministic Wind Forecasting System over China
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Cheng, Y. Liu, J. Hu, S. Jin, and S. Feng

2:30 PM
Break

3:15 PM
6.7
Predictability of the Location and Amount of Winter Storm Precipitation
Fan Han, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and I. Szunyogh

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Joint Panel Discussion 3
Communicating Uncertainty: Progress and Outstanding Challenges in the NOAA Testbeds
Location: Ballroom F (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Moderator: Kimberly E. Klockow, CIMMS
Panelists: Kodi Berry, CIMMS; Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL; Sarah Perfater, IMSG; Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; Kevin L. Manross, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.; Shirley Murillo, NOAA/AOML

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Joint Session 36
Statistics and Artificial Intelligence
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: Matthew Peroutka, NOAA/NWS; Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
8:30 AM
J36.1
9:15 AM
J36.4
Automated Products for Forecasting Arctic Blizzard Conditions
William R. Burrows, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and C. J. Mooney

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Session 7
Ensemble and Statistical Post-Processing, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine-Learning for Decision Support
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Jason J. Levit, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC; Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL
11:00 AM
7.2
Gridded Cloud Layer Guidance to Support the TAF
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and A. D. Schnapp
Manuscript (746.0 kB)

Handout (8.1 MB)

11:15 AM
7.3
11:30 AM
7.4
11:45 AM
7.5
An Evaluation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts of Sensible Weather Parameters
Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company: An IBM Business, Atlanta, GA; and H. C. Hassenzahl, W. A. Cassanova, and J. I. Belanger

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 2
2018 Horton Lecture
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
1:30 PM
L2.1
Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)
Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Session 8
Verification and Validation — Part IV: S2S, Extreme Value, and Climate
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois; Barbara Brown, NCAR
1:30 PM
8.1
A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events
Vitaly Kholodovsky, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and X. Z. Liang

1:45 PM
8.2
A Novel Method to Define Hot and Cold Spells With Extreme Value Theory
Carlos M. Minjarez-Sosa, Univ. de Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico; and A. Jimenez and J. Montoya-Laos

2:15 PM
8.4
Systematic Error Characteristics of Weeks 3 and 4 2-m Temperature Forecasts in the NCEP GEFS Reforecast for SubX
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, E. Sinsky, W. Li, and C. Melhauser

2:30 PM
Break

3:00 PM
8.6
3:15 PM
8.7

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Joint Poster Session 7
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ.; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ.
894
Impact of Downscaling on Forcing Engine for Operational Water Prediction System of National Water Center
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Gochis, W. Yu, A. Dugger, J. Grim, Y. Zhang, A. Rafieeinasab, L. Karsten, Y. Liu, and B. Cosgrove

895
Improving Hydrologic Forecasting Using Ensemble Conditional Bias-Penalized Kalman Filter
Haksu Lee, Len Technologies, Inc., Oak Hill, VA; and D. J. Seo, Y. Zhang, S. Kim, and S. Noh

897
Simulation and Test of Flood Routing Based on GIS Rainstorm Flood Inundation Model
Limei Ye, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China; and T. Peng and Y. Zhou

898
NWP Forecast Performance for Significant Precipitation Events over Southwest British Columbia
Anthony Di Stefano, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and D. M. Siuta, G. L. West, and R. B. Stull

899
Calibration of QPF Using the Optimal Percentile Method
Kan Dai, National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Zhu

900
Evaluation and Statistical Analysis of Short-Term WRF QPFs for Santa Clara Valley in Winter 2016/17
Arthur Eiserloh, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and C. Keene and S. Chiao

903
Evaluation of GRAPES Global Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-GEPS) of CMA
Yinglin LI, National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

905
Jiangsu Moisture Characteristics Analysis in Different Weather Background of Plum Flood Season
Mei Liu, Jiangsu Meteorology Observation, Nanjing, China; and J. Yu, L. Wang, and M. Yang

907
Stochastic Parameter Perturbation in Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and G. Grell and J. Berner

908
Analysis on the Key Factors in Causing Heavy Rain and Precipitation Forecast Deviation in a Regional Persistent Heavy Rainfall
Jianwei Yu, Jiangsu Meteorology Observation, Nanjing, China; and M. Liu, M. Yang, and S. Chen

909
Analysis for Cold Water Lenses off the Jiangsu Coast Based on Observation and Simulation
Wenjing Zhang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Zhu and X. Z. Wang

910
On the Detection of Statistical Heterogeneity in Rain Measurement
A. R. Jameson, RJH Scientific, Inc., Arlington, VA; and M. L. Larsen and A. B. Kostinski

Handout (85.0 kB) Handout (85.7 kB)

Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Joint Session 53
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis, Part I
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ.; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ.
1:30 PM
J53.1
Stochastic Approaches within a High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (Invited Presentation)
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, J. K. Wolff, M. Harold, G. Grell, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. Berner, C. R. Alexander, and S. Benjamin

1:45 PM
J53.2
Relative Skills of Two PQPF Mechanisms for Postprocessing Medium-Term Precipitation Forecast
Yu Zhang, Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX; and M. Scheuerer, J. C. Schaake, L. Wu, and C. Kongoli

2:15 PM
J53.4
Probability Forecast Model of Tropical Cyclone Heavy Rainfall Area Based on Multielement Diagnosis
Hong Huang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and J. Wang and X. Z. Wang

Handout (571.8 kB)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Joint Session 57
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis, Part II
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ.; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ.
4:00 PM
J57.3
Ensemble Flood Forecasting Based on Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and Distributed Hydrological Model
Hongjun Bao, National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Handout (2.5 MB)

4:15 PM
J57.4
Probabilistic Verification of the National Water Model
Erin Towler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. McCreight, A. Dugger, D. Gochis, K. M. Mahoney, and T. J. Mills

4:30 PM
J57.5
4:45 PM
J57.6
Assessing the Utility of Multiple Land Surface Models for Drought Simulation
Shugong Wang, SAIC at NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, D. M. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, and Y. Xia