Joint Session 57 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Program Chairs: Tara L. Jensen , NCAR/RAL ; Matthew Peroutka , NOAA/NWS ; Scott Sellars , Univ. of California ; Elizabeth A. Satterfield , NRL

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part I: Representation of Model Uncertainty
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL; Daniel Hodyss, NRL
9:00 AM
1.2
Introducing Land Surface Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, W. Kolczynski Jr., and P. Pegion
9:15 AM
1.3
Preliminary Testing of Stochastic Physics Schemes for the Next Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Implementation
Bing Fu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, D. Hou, W. Kolczynski Jr., P. J. Pegion, and Y. Zhu
9:30 AM
1.4

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part II: Methods and Practice
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory; Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.
10:45 AM
2.2
Obtaining Consistent Probabilistic Predictions through Statistical Post-Processing of Ensembles
Nina Schuhen, Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway; and T. L. Thorarinsdottir and F. Stordal

11:00 AM
2.3
A Smart Extension of the Search Space for Use with the Analog Ensemble Technique
Laura Clemente-Harding, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and G. S. Young, G. Cervone, L. Delle Monache, and S. E. Haupt
11:30 AM
2.5
Performance of the 2017 Real-Time HWRF-Based Ensemble and Combined HWRF/HMON/COAMPS-TC Multimodel Ensemble
Zhan Zhang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and W. Wang, L. Zhu, B. Liu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada
11:45 AM
2.6
Initial Verification of IMPROVER: The New Met Office Post-Processing System
Jonathan Flowerdew, UKMO, Exeter, UK; and R. Crocker and R. Harbord

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
Verification and Validation — Part I: Communicating Probabilistic Information and Predictive Skill
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: William Campbell, NRL; Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
2:30 PM
3.2
Unified Verification System
Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. L. Jensen, G. Manikin, L. F. Bosart, B. Strong, M. Ek, and V. Tallapragada
2:45 PM
3.3
Enhancing Community Collaborations through NWP Software Containers
John Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, K. R. Fossell, M. Harrold, T. L. Jensen, T. Burek, and J. Exby
3:00 PM
Break

3:15 PM
3.4
An Overview of Verification in Support of GSD Model Development and the Evolution of Process-Oriented Analysis Tools
Jeffrey A. Hamilton, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, K. Holub, M. B. Smith, R. Pierce, and B. Strong
3:30 PM
3.5
Evaluation of Global Model Physics Advancements using a Hierarchical Framework
Man Zhang, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, J. K. Wolff, G. J. Firl, L. Bernardet, J. K. Henderson, H. Jiang, and G. Grell
3:45 PM
3.6
The Forecast Skill Card and the Diagonal Score
Zied Ben Bouallegue, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and T. Haiden and D. S. Richardson
4:00 PM
3.7
Linearization of Air Temperatures on the Pacific Ocean on the Equatorial Line
César Diez Chirinos, Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria, Lima, Peru; and C. J. Solano Sr.

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Monday Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
120A
160
Overview of National Blend of Models Version 3.1. Part II: Bulk Verification and High Impact Examples
Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. L. Huntemann, D. W. Plumb Jr., and D. E. Rudack

162
Using the Big Weather Web Ensemble to Examine Systemic Biases in WRF Model Parameterizations
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. R. Tyle and G. R. Herman

163
NAEFS System Upgrade and Its New Products
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and Y. Luo

164
Using Forecast Ensembles to Assess Boundary Layer Uncertainty and Characteristics
Clint Leeper, South Dakota School of Mines, Rapid City, SD; and W. Capehart and T. Phillips

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
Development and Communication of High-Resolution, Ensemble Forecast Information for Forecasting Extreme Weather
Location: Room 5ABC (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 34th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS
8:45 AM
TJ1.2
Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) toward an Operational Convective-Allowing Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast System
Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, J. Beck, I. Jankov, T. Alcott, B. D. Jamison, J. A. Hamilton, J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin
9:00 AM
TJ1.3
Incorporating Time of UH Occurrence in the Generation of Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities
Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, I. L. Jirak, and S. R. Dembek
9:15 AM
TJ1.4
NWS Forecasters’ Interpretations, Uses, and Needs Regarding High-Resolution, Ensemble-Based Guidance
Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss, I. Jankov, C. R. Alexander, T. Alcott, D. Nietfeld, and T. Jensen
9:30 AM
TJ1.5
Thorough Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Forecasts
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. R. Nielsen and R. S. Schumacher
9:45 AM
Discussion

Recording files available
Session 4
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting — Part III: S2S
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Chair: Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL
8:30 AM
4.1
Improving the Skill of CFSv2 Seasonal Forecast over Northern South America
Maria C. Angel, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos
8:45 AM
4.2
Prediction of Short-Term Climate Extremes Using North American Multimodel Ensemble
Emily Becker, NOAA, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins and H. van den Dool
9:15 AM
4.4
Novel Extended-Range Storm Impact Outlooks for Finland
Terhi K. Laurila, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and O. Hyvärinen, A. Mäkelä, A. Vajda, and H. Gregow
9:30 AM
4.5
Predicting Regime Changes in the Lorenz Model with Ensemble Spread
Erin M. Lynch, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. C. Eure, E. Kalnay, and S. Sharma

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 4
Machine Learning and Statistics in Data Science
Location: Room 7 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
10:30 AM
TJ4.1
11:00 AM
TJ4.2
Convolutional Neural Network for Rain/No-Rain Detection from Satellite Observations
Kun Zhang, Beijing Piesat Information and Technology Limited, Beijing, China; and H. Xia, H. Zhang, C. Lin, and W. Guo

11:15 AM
TJ4.3
Self-Organizing Maps for Tornadic Near-Storm Environments
Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith
11:30 AM
TJ4.4
Improving Forecasts of Extreme Values by Machine Learning Models Using Occam's Razor
William W. Hsieh, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
11:45 AM
TJ4.5
Spatial Structure Evaluation of Unsupervised Deep Learning for Atmospheric Data
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt and D. W. Nychka
Recording files available
Session 5
Verification and Validation — Part II: High Resolution
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Chair: Dana Strom, AceInfo Solutions
10:30 AM
5.1
Communicating Predictive Skill Through Recent Advances in MET
Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. Fowler, and B. Brown
10:45 AM
5.2
A Community Effort for Convection Allowing Mode (CAM) Scorecarding
Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, A. J. Clark, P. L. Heinselman, J. K. Wolff, P. Skinner, C. R. Alexander, J. Carley, G. Manikin, and I. L. Jirak
11:00 AM
5.3
Evaluation of Hail Size Forecasting Models during the 2016 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Adams-Selin, G. Thompson, B. Gallo, A. McGovern, G. Romine, C. Schwartz, N. Snook, and R. A. Sobash
11:30 AM
5.5
Modeling and Correcting Reporting Biases in the SPC Tornado Database
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, and H. E. Brooks
11:45 AM
5.6
An Evaluation of Ensembles Available within the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT)
Jeff Beck, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov, J. K. Wolff, M. Harrold, T. Hertneky, P. S. Skinner, and J. M. Brown

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6
Verification and Validation — Part III: Decision Support/Process Oriented
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
1:30 PM
6.1
Statistical Design of Experiments in Numerical Weather Prediction: Emerging Results
Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), NM; and R. S. Penc and J. W. Raby
2:00 PM
6.3
Objective Evaluation of a WRF-RTFDDA High-Resolution Deterministic Wind Forecasting System over China
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Cheng, Y. Liu, J. Hu, S. Jin, and S. Feng
2:15 PM
6.4
Evaluation of Fire-Weather Predictions by the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS): Results and Lessons Learned
Amanda R. Siems-Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, B. Kosovic, P. A. Jimenez, D. Muñoz-Esparza, and A. DeCastro
2:30 PM
Break

2:45 PM
6.5
3:00 PM
6.6
3:15 PM
6.7
Predictability of the Location and Amount of Winter Storm Precipitation
Fan Han, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and I. Szunyogh

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Joint Panel Discussion 3
Communicating Uncertainty: Progress and Outstanding Challenges in the NOAA Testbeds
Location: Ballroom F (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Moderator: Kimberly E. Klockow, CIMMS
Panelists: Kodi Berry, CIMMS; Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL; Sarah Perfater, IMSG; Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; Kevin L. Manross, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.; Shirley Murillo, NOAA/AOML
1:30 PM
JPD3.1
Communicating Uncertainty: Progress and Outstanding Challenges in the NOAA Testbeds
Kimberly E. Klockow, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. M. Calhoun, H. Obermeier, and T. C. Meyer

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Tuesday Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
591
Using of a University Consortium Ensemble to Assess Forecast Risk and Confidence
Mitchell Kern, South Dakota School of Mines, Rapid City, SD; and W. Capehart and K. R. Tyle

593
Improving Short Range Ensemble Precipitation Forecast using an Ensemble Analog Method
Xiang Su, Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau (China), Nanjing, China; and Z. Kang

597
A Demonstration of Data Encoding for Statistical Post-Processing of NWP Output
Matthew R. Peroutka, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Engle, J. J. Levit, and R. Conroy

Handout (778.6 kB)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Joint Session 36
Statistics and Artificial Intelligence
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: Matthew Peroutka, NOAA/NWS; Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
8:30 AM
J36.1
The Weather Information Statistical Post-Processing System (WISPS): Project Update
Jason J. Levit, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Peroutka, R. Conroy, E. Engle, and I. Stajner
8:45 AM
J36.2
9:00 AM
J36.3
Machine Learning Approaches to Reducing Tropical Cyclone Prediction Errors
Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie, H. A. Ramsay, and P. J. Klotzbach
9:15 AM
J36.4
Automated Products for Forecasting Arctic Blizzard Conditions
William R. Burrows, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and C. J. Mooney
9:45 AM
J36.6
An Ordered Hurdle Model for Probabilistic Low-Visibility Nowcasting to Support Decisions at Airports
Philipp Kneringer, Univ. of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; and S. J. Dietz, G. J. Mayr, and A. Zeileis

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 7
Ensemble and Statistical Post-Processing, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine-Learning for Decision Support
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Jason J. Levit, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC; Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL
11:00 AM
7.2
Gridded Cloud Layer Guidance to Support the TAF
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and A. D. Schnapp
11:15 AM
7.3
Overview of National Blend of Models Version 3.1. Part I: Capabilities and an Outlook for Future Upgrades
Jeffrey P. Craven, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack, R. S. James, E. Engle, T. M. Hamill, S. Scallion, P. E. Shafer, J. Wagner Jr., M. N. Baker, J. R. Wiedenfeld, C. Buxton, D. P. Nielsen, and C. A. Stearns
11:45 AM
7.5
An Evaluation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts of Sensible Weather Parameters
Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company: An IBM Business, Atlanta, GA; and H. C. Hassenzahl, W. A. Cassanova, and J. I. Belanger

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 2
2018 Horton Lecture
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
1:30 PM
L2.1
Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)
Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 8
Verification and Validation — Part IV: S2S, Extreme Value, and Climate
Location: Room 19AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs: Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois; Barbara Brown, NCAR
1:30 PM
8.1
A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events
Vitaly Kholodovsky, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and X. Z. Liang

1:45 PM
8.2
A Novel Method to Define Hot and Cold Spells With Extreme Value Theory
Carlos M. Minjarez-Sosa, Univ. de Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico; and A. Jimenez and J. Montoya-Laos

2:15 PM
8.4
Systematic Error Characteristics of Weeks 3 and 4 2-m Temperature Forecasts in the NCEP GEFS Reforecast for SubX
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, E. Sinsky, W. Li, and C. Melhauser
2:30 PM
Break

3:00 PM
8.6
Improving Impact-Based Seasonal Outlooks for South-Central Texas
Ty Dickinson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Hopper Jr. and M. Lenz
3:15 PM
8.7
A Methodology for Optimizing Free Global Climate Model Parameters Using NASA Observational Datasets
Gregory S. Elsaesser, Columbia Univ. and NASA GISS, New York, NY; and M. van Lier-Walqui
3:45 PM
Evaluation of Extra Tropical Cyclones Using a Feature-Relative Method - Tara Jensen

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Joint Poster Session 7
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ.; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ.
894
Impact of Downscaling on Forcing Engine for Operational Water Prediction System of National Water Center
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Gochis, W. Yu, A. Dugger, J. Grim, Y. Zhang, A. Rafieeinasab, L. Karsten, Y. Liu, and B. Cosgrove

895
Improving Hydrologic Forecasting Using Ensemble Conditional Bias-Penalized Kalman Filter
Haksu Lee, Len Technologies, Inc., Oak Hill, VA; and D. J. Seo, Y. Zhang, S. Kim, and S. Noh

896
High-Resolution, Multi-Model Hydrological Seasonal Forecasting for Water Resources Management over Europe
Ming Pan, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. Wanders, E. F. Wood, J. Sheffield, L. Samaniego, S. Thober, R. Kumar, C. Prudhomme, and H. Houghton-Carr

897
Simulation and Test of Flood Routing Based on GIS Rainstorm Flood Inundation Model
Limei Ye, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China; and T. Peng and Y. Zhou

898
NWP Forecast Performance for Significant Precipitation Events over Southwest British Columbia
Anthony Di Stefano, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and D. M. Siuta, G. L. West, and R. B. Stull

899
Calibration of QPF Using the Optimal Percentile Method
Kan Dai, National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Zhu

900
Evaluation and Statistical Analysis of Short-Term WRF QPFs for Santa Clara Valley in Winter 2016/17
Arthur Eiserloh, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and C. Keene and S. Chiao

901
902
An Investigation of the Forecast Performance for Precipitation in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Reforecast
Eric Sinsky, NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, C. Melhauser, Y. Luo, and W. Li

903
Evaluation of GRAPES Global Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-GEPS) of CMA
Yinglin LI, National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

905
Jiangsu Moisture Characteristics Analysis in Different Weather Background of Plum Flood Season
Mei Liu, Jiangsu Meteorology Observation, Nanjing, China; and J. Yu, L. Wang, and M. Yang

906
Sensitivity of Orographic Precipitation to Microphysics Parameter and Process Perturbations
Annareli Morales, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt and H. Morrison

907
Stochastic Parameter Perturbation in Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and G. Grell and J. Berner

908
Analysis on the Key Factors in Causing Heavy Rain and Precipitation Forecast Deviation in a Regional Persistent Heavy Rainfall
Jianwei Yu, Jiangsu Meteorology Observation, Nanjing, China; and M. Liu, M. Yang, and S. Chen

909
Analysis for Cold Water Lenses off the Jiangsu Coast Based on Observation and Simulation
Wenjing Zhang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Zhu and X. Z. Wang

910
On the Detection of Statistical Heterogeneity in Rain Measurement
A. R. Jameson, RJH Scientific, Inc., Arlington, VA; and M. L. Larsen and A. B. Kostinski

Handout (85.0 kB) Handout (85.7 kB)


Poster Session
Poster Session - Wed
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics
1032
Impact of ENSO on Spatial Patterns of CO2 Variability from GOSAT and AIRS
Na Ying, Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China; and Q. Ye

1033
Analysis of Relative Humidity on the Pacific Ocean
César Diez Chirinos Sr., Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria, Lima, Peru
Manuscript (7.8 MB)

Handout (358.1 kB)

1035
A Cross Validation of Interpolated Tropical Pacific Rainfall
Ethan Cook, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Greene

1037
Spatiotemporal Trends in Daily Precipitation Extremes for the Southeastern United States
Nirajan Dhakal, Spelman College, Atlanta, GA; and B. Tharu

Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Joint Session 53
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis, Part I
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ.; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ.
1:30 PM
J53.1
Stochastic Approaches within a High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (Invited Presentation)
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, J. K. Wolff, M. Harold, G. Grell, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. Berner, C. R. Alexander, and S. Benjamin
1:45 PM
J53.2
Relative Skills of Two PQPF Mechanisms for Postprocessing Medium-Term Precipitation Forecast
Yu Zhang, Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX; and M. Scheuerer, J. C. Schaake, L. Wu, and C. Kongoli

2:15 PM
J53.4
Probability Forecast Model of Tropical Cyclone Heavy Rainfall Area Based on Multielement Diagnosis
Hong Huang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and J. Wang and X. Z. Wang

Handout (571.8 kB)

2:30 PM
J53.5
Implementation and Preliminary Assessment of PQPF Guidance at NWS Miami–South Florida and Detroit/Pontiac, Michigan
Ian R. Lee, NOAA, White Lake, MI; and P. Santos, K. Scharfenberg, B. Veenhuis Jr., J. A. Nelson Jr., J. R. Wiedenfeld, J. A. Thomas, and J. Maloney
2:45 PM
J53.6
On the Use of High-Resolution Ensembles for Operational Heavy Rainfall Forecasting in the Denver Metro Area
Dmitry Smirnov, Dewberry, Denver, CO; and D. McGlone, A. J. Clark, C. Schwartz, and K. Stewart

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Joint Session 57
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis, Part II
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ.; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ.
3:30 PM
J57.1
Developing Climate Services for Europe: The End-to-End Demonstrator for Improved Decision-Making in the Water Sector in Europe (EDgE)
Eric F. Wood, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. Wanders, M. Pan, J. Sheffield, L. Samaniego, S. Thober, R. Kumar, O. Rakovec, C. Prudhomme, M. Fry, and H. Houghton-Carr
4:00 PM
J57.3
Ensemble Flood Forecasting Based on Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and Distributed Hydrological Model
Hongjun Bao, National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Handout (2.5 MB)

4:15 PM
J57.4
Probabilistic Verification of the National Water Model
Erin Towler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. McCreight, A. Dugger, D. Gochis, K. M. Mahoney, and T. J. Mills
4:30 PM
J57.5
A Multiscale Postprocessor for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
Babak Alizadeh, Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX; and D. J. Seo and H. Lee
4:45 PM
J57.6
Assessing the Utility of Multiple Land Surface Models for Drought Simulation
Shugong Wang, SAIC at NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, D. M. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, and Y. Xia