Joint Session 53 Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis, Part I

Thursday, 11 January 2018: 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ., School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing; Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal Univ., College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing and Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ., Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA

The 32nd Conference on Hydrology is hosting a joint session with the 25th Conference Probability and Statistics on probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting and uncertainty analysis. Over the last several decades, substantial progresses have been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the quality and uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers but not limit to that focus on (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from different sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting methods. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data, and so on), initial conditions (such as soil moisture and heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), calibration, and statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output, and innovative methods for assessing uncertainty information from observations to modeling and postprocessing processes. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, or coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales.

1:30 PM
Stochastic Approaches within a High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (Invited Presentation)
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, J. K. Wolff, M. Harold, G. Grell, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. Berner, C. R. Alexander, and S. Benjamin
1:45 PM
Relative Skills of Two PQPF Mechanisms for Postprocessing Medium-Term Precipitation Forecast
Yu Zhang, Univ. of Texas at Austin, Arlington, TX; and M. Scheuerer, J. C. Schaake, L. Wu, and C. Kongoli

2:15 PM
Probability Forecast Model of Tropical Cyclone Heavy Rainfall Area Based on Multielement Diagnosis
Hong Huang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and J. Wang and X. Z. Wang

Handout (571.8 kB)

2:30 PM
Implementation and Preliminary Assessment of PQPF Guidance at NWS Miami–South Florida and Detroit/Pontiac, Michigan
Ian R. Lee, NOAA, White Lake, MI; and P. Santos, K. Scharfenberg, B. Veenhuis Jr., J. A. Nelson Jr., J. R. Wiedenfeld, J. A. Thomas, and J. Maloney
2:45 PM
On the Use of High-Resolution Ensembles for Operational Heavy Rainfall Forecasting in the Denver Metro Area
Dmitry Smirnov, Dewberry, Denver, CO; and D. McGlone, A. J. Clark, C. Schwartz, and K. Stewart

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner