Session 5 |
| | Use of Ensembles and Their Postprocesing in Prediction |
| | Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK
|
| 1:45 PM | 5.1 | The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real-time implementation within NWS web-based graphical forecasts  
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag |
| 2:00 PM | 5.2 | Taking into account the rank of a member within the ensemble for probabilistic forecasting based on the best member method
Vincent Fortin, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. C. Favre |
| 2:15 PM | 5.3 | Precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson |
| 2:30 PM | 5.4 | Postprocessing multimodel ensemble data for improved short-range forecasting
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf |
| 2:45 PM | 5.5 | Post processed short range ensemble forecasts of severe convective storms
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin |
| 3:00 PM | | Coffee Break
|
| 3:30 PM | 5.6 | On producing probability forecasts
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and R. Zaretzki |
| 3:45 PM | 5.7 | Ensemble based probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC |
| 4:00 PM | 5.8 | Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY |
| 4:15 PM | 5.9 | Combining spatial and ensemble information for probabilistic weather forecasting
Veronica J. Berrocal, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting |
| 4:30 PM | 5.10 | A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging
Seung-Ki Min, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense |
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting