18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Session 5


Use of Ensembles and Their Postprocesing in Prediction

 Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK
1:45 PM5.1The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real-time implementation within NWS web-based graphical forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag
2:00 PM5.2Taking into account the rank of a member within the ensemble for probabilistic forecasting based on the best member method  extended abstract
Vincent Fortin, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. C. Favre
2:15 PM5.3Precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system  extended abstract wrf recording
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson
2:30 PM5.4Postprocessing multimodel ensemble data for improved short-range forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf
2:45 PM5.5Post processed short range ensemble forecasts of severe convective storms  extended abstract wrf recording
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PM5.6On producing probability forecasts  
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and R. Zaretzki
3:45 PM5.7Ensemble based probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts  
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
4:00 PM5.8Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting  
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
4:15 PM5.9Combining spatial and ensemble information for probabilistic weather forecasting  
Veronica J. Berrocal, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting
4:30 PM5.10A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging  
Seung-Ki Min, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense

Tuesday, 31 January 2006: 1:45 PM-4:45 PM, A304

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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