Dust Transport Application forecasting of Middle Eastern, African and Asian Dust Storms

Forecasting of dust storms in Africa, Middle East, Southeast Asia and China is important for aviation, commercial and military operations. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory have been using the Dust Transport Application (DTA) to make 72 hour daily forecasts of dust storms and conditions where visibility is impacted by airborne mineral dust. The application uses daily AGRMET soil moisture data and assimilates MM5 weather forecast data into the Community Aerosol Research Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) transport model. The global Ginoux dust source database is used in DTA, with surface dust flux adjusted based on surface snow cover and relative soil moisture provided by AGRMET. The DTA model makes daily forecasts maps showing dust concentrations, total loading and visibility. We compare some of the forecast cases using the model and some of the limitations of using a mesoscale theater for dust aerosol predictions. One of the advantages of using a general aerosol model like CARMA is the ability to use weather products from newer models such as WRF and GFS.