34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology/21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Coffee Break

Luncheon with Guest Speaker Joint with Broadcast Conference

Coffee Break

Registration Opens

Mon 1 Aug

Registration continues through Friday, 5 August

Session 1

Opening Session

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM

8:00 AM

1.1

Opening Remarks

Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

8:15 AM

1.2

Partnerships for Environmental Literacy, serving the American public

D. L. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

1.3

NCEP: NWP in the era of common infrastructures WRF & ESMF

Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and G. DiMego

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

1.4

The COMET Program: Fifteen years of education and training for weather forecasters and the user community

Timothy Spangler, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO

Short Course (Broadcast) Include Lunch

Coffee Break

Session 2B

Forecasting Tools – Helping the Public Understand the Impact of Daily Weather Forecasts

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel

CoChair: Douglas C. Young, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

2B.1

WSI's Operational Implementation of the WRF model

Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis, S. Marshall, and C. Liu

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (766.1 kB)

10:45 AM

2B.2

Defining cognitive decision making processes in forecasting: a knowledge based system to generate weather graphics

Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (186.4 kB)

11:00 AM

2B.3

Assessing forecast uncertainty in the National Digital Forecast Database

Matthew R. Peroutka, NOAA/NWS/Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra and J. L. Wagner

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

2B.4

An approach to creating an integrated graphical hazards outlook product

11:30 AM

2B.5

An internet site for professional meteorologists

Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and J. T. Candor and M. A. Steinberg

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

2B.6

Broadband changes the relationship between numerical modeling, operational (including broadcast) meteorolgists and consumers

Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA

Session 2A

Applications to Support Weather Forecasts – Nowcasting and Weather Impacts Analyses

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems

10:30 AM

2A.1

Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?

Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Kain and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.5 MB)

10:45 AM

2A.2

A simple physically based snowfall algorithm

Daniel K. Cobb Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Grand Rapids, MI; and J. S. Waldstreicher

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

11:00 AM

2A.3

The Meteorological Service of Canada/COMET partnership….an international success story

Peter Lewis, MSC, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia; and G. Toth, B. Muller, and D. Wesley

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

2A.4

COMET’s influence on meteorological education and research within universities: The Saint Louis University experience

James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and C. E. Graves

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (113.0 kB)

11:30 AM

2A.5

Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, G. W. Carbin, D. Bright, J. J. Levit, and J. A. Hart

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (183.7 kB)

11:45 AM

2A.6

Using The WRF Model To Simulate Flow Through California’s Altamont Pass

John W. Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and G. E. Van Knowe and K. T. Waight

Lunch Break

Session 3

Convection and Precipitation

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

CoChair: Eyad Atallah, McGill University

1:30 PM

3.1

The effects of organized upstream convection on downstream precipitation

Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (528.8 kB)

1:45 PM

3.2

Ridge rollers: Mesoscale disturbances on the periphery of cutoff anticyclones

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

3.3

Use of proximity sounding parameters to improve the prediction of Mesoscale Convective system (MCS) speed and dissipation

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks and S. J. Weiss

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (250.0 kB)

2:15 PM

3.4

Analysis of a cold-air precipitation event: Observational diagnosis and numerical model sensitivity

Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (972.0 kB)

2:30 PM

3.5

Cool-season regime transition and its impact on precipitation in the Northeast

Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, A. Aiyyer, and R. H. Grumm

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

3.6

Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Cloud-resolving experiments and multistage error growth dynamics

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and N. Bei, R. Rotunno, and C. Snyder

Recorded presentation

Coffee Break

Session 4A

Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ.

CoChair: Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M Univ.

3:30 PM

4A.1

The role of streamwise and transverse quasi-geostrophic vertical motions in the mid-latitude cyclone life cycle

Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Recorded presentation

3:45 PM

4A.2

A study of coherent tropopause disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric circumpolar vortex

Joseph R. Kravitz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and A. Aiyyer

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

4A.3

Hurricane force extratropical cyclones

Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NWS, College Park, MD; and J. M. Von Ahn and G. M. McFadden

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (85.8 kB)

4:15 PM

4A.4

Effects of terrain on the horizontal and vertical structures of fronts over the Intermountain region

Jason C. Shafer, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

4A.5

The Fiftieth Anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale model simulation of the cold front of 17-18 April 1953

David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Roebber

Session 4B

Operational Model Development

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

CoChair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY

3:30 PM

4B.1

Recent improvements to NRL's mesoscale modeling system

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, J. C. Golaz, R. M. Hodur, T. Holt, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. E. Nachamkin, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

Recorded presentation

3:45 PM

4B.2

From the RUC to the Rapid Refresh

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. Dévényi, T. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, S. E. Peckham, K. J. Brundage, S. Weygandt, T. W. Schlatter, J. Brown, and T. L. Smith

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

4B.3

Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, D. Rao, J. Derber, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, N. Surgi, and F. Toepfer

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

4B.4

The Operational WRF NMM at NCEP

Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pyle and H. Y. Chuang

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

4B.5

The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System: Final Eta model/analysis changes and preliminary experiments using the WRF-NMM

Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, B. S. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, M. Pondeca, M. Pyle, V. C. K. Wong, and W. S. Wu

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

Session 5A

Large- and Synoptic-Scale Processes

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin

CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri

4:45 PM

5A.1

Dust Transport Application forecasting of Middle Eastern, African and Asian Dust Storms

B. H. Barnum, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD; and N. S. Winstead, G. R. Brooks, P. Ginoux, L. Burke, J. Lippman, B. Toth, and I. Gotchel

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

5A.2

Climate change and teleconnection patterns: An analysis of temperature and flow regime trends over North America

Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Aiyyer, J. R. Gyakum, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and L. Bosart

Recorded presentation

5:15 PM

5A.3

A Statistical analysis and synoptic climatology of heat waves over the United States

Scott C. Runyon, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded presentation

Session 5B

Socioeconomic impacts of forecasts

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL

4:45 PM

5B.1

Expert Mental Modeling of the Weather Forecast System

Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Zia and R. E. Morss

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

5B.2

Distance learning training for aviation forecasters: The impact of weather on air traffic management

Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and V. C. Johnson and D. K. Cobb Jr.

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (445.8 kB)

5:15 PM

5B.3

Societal Value of Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: A Synthesis

Asim Zia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss and J. K. Lazo

Recorded presentation

Sessions End for the Day

Poster Session 1

Conference Posters

Location: Regency Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

P1.1

An improved clear air turbulence diagnostic index to account for unbalanced flow in anticyclonically curved jet streams

Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Knox

Handout (516.5 kB)

P1.2

The impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and Lyapunov exponents as a diagnostic

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and I. I. Mokhov, S. Dostoglou, A. Kunz, and J. P. Burkhardt

Handout (214.1 kB)

P1.3

Planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics: More evidence for the paucity of wave-wave interactions in Southern Hemisphere blocking

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. Kunz and J. P. Burkhardt

Handout (174.8 kB)

P1.4

Diagnosis of banded precipitation patterns associated with extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones using CSI theory

Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Handout (333.1 kB)

P1.5

A climatology of strong cold fronts over the western United States

Jason C. Shafer, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

P1.6

Cool-season moderate precipitation events in the Northeastern United States

Keith R. Wagner, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. S. Evans

P1.7

HPC's Excessive Rainfall Potential Outlook

Michael T. Eckert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

P1.8

The flash flood of 12 July 2004 in Burlington County, New Jersey: A case study

Michael J. Gorse, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Handout (436.6 kB)

P1.9

Observed Bow Echo events during the first week of July 2003 concurrent with BAMEX

Nicholas D. Metz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

P1.10

Examining the role of mesoscale features in the structure and evolution of precipitation regions in northeast winter storms

Matthew D. Greenstein, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. J. Nicosia

P1.11

An examination of cool-season damaging wind events in the northern mid-Atlantic region

Raymond Kruzdlo, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Handout (2.2 MB)

P1.12

A Satellite Perspective of the Propagation Characteristics of a Mesoscale Convective System over Northwest Alabama and Northeast Mississippi

Jay Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD

Handout (440.1 kB)

P1.13

Using Multi-Spectral Satellite Remote Sensing Techniques to Nowcast Nocturnal Convection Initiation

Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD; and J. R. Mecikalski

Handout (707.3 kB)

P1.14

Dominant factors influencing precipitation efficiency in a continental mid-latitude location

Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, Malaysian Meteorological Service, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Handout (308.8 kB)

P1.15

An observational analysis of an Alabama dryline event on March 19–20, 2003

Robert E. Barbre Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, K. Knupp, W. Mackenzie Jr., P. Gatlin, and D. Phillips

Handout (1.3 MB)

P1.16

Warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone development: Sensitivity to the nature of the incipient vortex

Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Handout (372.7 kB)

P1.17

Towards a better understanding of and ability to forecast the wind field expansion during the extratropical transition process

Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Hart

Handout (540.5 kB)

P1.18

Wet snow icing upstream of mountains

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson

P1.19

Wet snow icing downstream of mountains

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson

P1.20

Warm season extreme quantitative precipitation forecasting for the Burlington, VT region

John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah, P. Sisson, M. Kimball, and A. Roberge

Handout (848.8 kB)

P1.21

Validation of a numerical wind forecast by dust image

Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland

P1.22

The textbook foehn

Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland

P1.23

The response filter

Mark Askelson, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and H. Lin, M. Solum, and C. Chambers

Handout (715.1 kB)

P1.24

The impact of different microphysical schemes on mesoscale circulations and convective system morphology in 4-10 km grid spacing WRF simulations

Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University,SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. A. Gallus, Jr.

Handout (355.9 kB)

P1.25

The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real—time implementation within NWS web—based graphical forecasts

Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag

Handout (115.3 kB)

P1.26

Synthesizing tropical analysis perturbations for use with the Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop

P1.27

Spurious pressure and geopotential height fluctuations in the North American Regional Reanalysis

Gregory L. West, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh

P1.28

Solving for Pressure: Accuracy and Acceleration

Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Handout (176.6 kB)

P1.29

Sloping Steps Eta Discretization

Fedor Mesinger, Univ. Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Jovic

P1.30

Simultaneous Retrieval of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State Variables with Radar Data and Ensemble Kalman Filter Method

Mingjing Tong, SOM/CAPS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Handout (532.9 kB)

P1.31

Simulating a windstorm upstream of steep mountains

H.álfdáN. Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.32

Sequential estimation of systematic error on near-surface mesoscale grids

P1.33

Sensitivity of Hurricane Charley simulations to changes in the WRF model

Matthew J. Rosier, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. K. Miller

Handout (300.6 kB)

P1.34

Satellite and numerical model data—driven cloud ceiling and visibility estimation

Richard Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, P. H. Herzegh, G. Wiener, J. Cowie, and J. M. Brown

Handout (255.5 kB)

P1.35

Predicting precipitation in a mesoscale mountain range

Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson

P1.36

Numerical prediction of atmospheric icing

Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, Icelandic Metorological OFfice and University of Bergen, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and C. Ubelmann and G. Hafsteinsson

Handout (358.8 kB)

P1.37

Precpitation downstream of a mesoscale mountain ridge

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson

P1.38

Precipitation Verification Studies of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model along the East Coast of the US

Paul A. Kucera, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and C. M. Paulsen and M. Taffe

P1.39

Precipitation extreme downstream of a mountain

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Jónsson

P1.40

Optimally shifted QPF verification scores

Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. G. Brown, K. F. Brill, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (571.9 kB)

P1.41

Operational Considerations of the December 26, 2004 Snowstorm across Hampton Roads Virginia and Northeast North Carolina

Timothy Gingrich, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. Billet

Handout (795.0 kB)

P1.42

On the performance, impact, and liabilities of automated precipitation gage screening algorithms

Edward Tollerud, NOAA Research-FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, Y. Lin, and A. Loughe

Handout (859.4 kB)

P1.43

Observations and simulation of a windstorm below breaking gravity waves

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson

P1.44

Nowcasting Applications of the Space—Time Mesoscale Analysis System

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, J. A. McGinley, and S. Albers

Handout (2.6 MB)

P1.45

NOAA's Deployment of the Water Vapor Sensor System (WVSS II)

David Helms, NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Fellows, T. Roberts, K. Schrab, F. Toepfer, B. Ballish, R. Baker, R. J. Fleming, R. May, R. A. Petersen, and W. R. Moninger

P1.46

NCEP SREF Forecasts of three Hurricanes during the 2004 Tropical Season

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA, State College, PA; and J. Du

Handout (549.2 kB)

P1.47

MM5IDL: A Flexible Framework for Post—Processing MM5 Data

Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and Ö. Rögnvaldsson

Handout (579.5 kB)

P1.48

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP): statistical guidance of wind speed, direction, and gusts for aviation weather

Jerry R. Wiedenfeld, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Handout (168.8 kB)

P1.49

Intermountain cold pool structure, transport, and mixing as revealed by isotopic trace gas and particulate matter concentrations over the Salt Lake Valley

W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Pataki, E. Pardyjak, J. Kiran, B. Tyler, R. Peterson, and A. Nair

P1.50

Incorporating orographic anisotropy and flow blocking effects in an orographic drag parameterization scheme

Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

P1.51

Improving Short Term Precipitation Forecasting through recognition of satellite based signatures combined with analysis of upper air and surface data

John Simko, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD

P1.52

Improvements in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) categorical visibility and obstruction to vision statistical guidance

David E. Rudack, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Handout (146.5 kB)

P1.53

Impacts of model errors and ensemble initiation on mesoscale ensemble-based data assimilation

Zhiyong Meng, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang

P1.54

Hydrological validation of a numerical simulation of a high-precipitation event in the complex terrain of South-Iceland

Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and G. G. Tómasson and H. Ólafsson

P1.55

Gustiness of downslope winds

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson and S. Árnason

P1.56

Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation for Rapid Refresh

Dezso Dévényi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES-University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Middlecoff, T. W. Schlatter, and S. S. Weygandt

Handout (80.2 kB)

P1.57

GOES WMSI—progress and developments

Kenneth L. Pryor, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and G. P. Ellrod

Handout (248.9 kB)

P1.58

Forecasting stratospheric clouds

Trausti Jónsson, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.59

Forecasting snow squalls using mesoscale models

Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. Krajewski

P1.60

Forecasting Heat Waves Using Climatic Anomalies

Kevin Lipton, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm, R. Holmes, P. G. Knight, and J. D. Ross

Handout (633.2 kB)

P1.61

Forecaster training on the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

Stephen D. Jascourt, MDA Information Systems, Gaithersburg, MD; and W. R. Bua

Handout (361.8 kB)

P1.62

A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper—Ocean Depth—Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies (Formerly Paper 6B.5)

Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart and C. A. Clayson

Handout (548.7 kB)

P1.63

Examination of mesoscale convective vortex and Its transition into a frontal cyclone during BAMEX

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart

P1.64

moved to Session 11B, New paper number 11B.7A

P1.65

Ensemble data assimilation and information theory

Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, L. Grasso, A. Y. Hou, S. Zhang, and D. Bikos

Handout (555.7 kB)

P1.66

Development of a new radiation scheme for the global atmospheric NWP model

Shigeki Murai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Yabu and H. Kitagawa

Handout (297.0 kB)

P1.67

Daytime boundary layer structure and flows with interacting lake, valley, and urban circulations

Justin A. W. Cox, NOAA/CIRP, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh and C. D. Whiteman

P1.68

Data Assimilation on the NASA fvGCM with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

Elana Klein, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Li, J. Liu, I. Szunyogh, B. Hunt, E. Kalnay, E. J. Kostelich, and R. Todling

P1.69

Coastal precipitation enhancement due to mesoscale features induced by a landfalling tropical cyclone

Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari

P1.70

Cloud-Top Temperatures for Precipitating Winter Clouds

Jay Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and D. M. Schultz and A. Irving

P1.71

Characteristics of water vapor structure of two cold front systems over central U.S.: High—resolution numerical simulations

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Demoz, X. Li, C. Liu, D. Whiteman, D. D. Turner, and R. M. Hoff

Handout (395.6 kB)

P1.72

Bridging high-resolution model and coarse ensemble system: Hybrid Ensembling

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego

P1.73

Assessment of numerical weather forecasts over SW-Iceland

Thordur Arason, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.74

Application of Brasseur's gust prediction method

Hálfdán Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.75

Combining Phase Error Correction and 3DVAR in Storm—Scale Data Assimilation

Yun Zhou, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. Brewster, M. Hu, and M. Xue

Handout (1.0 MB)

P1.76

Analysis of large forecast errors over Iceland

Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Arason

P1.77

Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Wind and Temperature Fields in a Mountain Desert Environment

Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Laufenberg

P1.78

An Examination of the Gage-Radar Relationship with respect to Frontal Boundaries

Kevin Brinson, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. R. Legates

P1.79

An evaluation of the land surface-atmosphere interactions over a heterogeneous landscape in numerical mesoscale model

Miliaritiana L. Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, S. Chiao, and J. D. Fuentes

P1.80

A Stochastic Physics Scheme in Representing Model-Related Errors in Global Ensemble Forecast

Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

P1.81

A new way to initialize operational NWP system for tropical cyclone forecast

Zhongfeng Zhang, Met Division, AirTraffic Management Bureau, Beijing, China; and K. H. Lau

P1.82

A Modeling Study of the Dryline in May 22 during IHOP 2002

Sen Chiao, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph and B. B. Demoz

P1.83

A Kalman Filter Approach to Correct Surface Forecast Bias

William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

P1.84

A Fully—Implicit Semi—Lagrangian Hydrostatic Model of Atmospheric Dynamics

Sajal K. Kar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Handout (502.7 kB)

P1.85

A few cases of mountain- and lee waves simulated by the WRF Model

P1.86

A comparison of the hybrid Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-3D variational analysis scheme (ETKF)—3DVAR and the pure Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) Analysis Schemes

Xuguang Wang, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, J. S. Whitaker, and C. Bishop

Handout (411.8 kB)

P1.87

Examining Severe Weather Events Using Reanalysis Datasets

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and J. D. Ross and P. G. Knight

Handout (2.4 MB)

P1.88

A comparison of prescriptions for using background field diagnostics to adapt covariances to the ambient flow in a 3D Variational assimilation

Manuel De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser, D. F. Parrish, and J. C. Derber

Handout (219.5 kB)

P1.89

Comparison of impacts of WRF dynamic core, physics packages, and initial conditions on warm season rainfall forecasts

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA

Handout (117.6 kB)

P1.90

The Meteorological Role of the Global Positioning System in NOAA's Integrated Upper-Air Observing System

Seth I. Gutman, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and K. Holub, S. Sahm, T. L. Smith, S. Benjamin, D. Birkenheuer, D. Helms, J. Facundo, L. M. McMillin, J. G. Yoe, and J. Daniels

P1.91

NOAA Profiler Network: The Newest Tool in NOAA’s Observing System Architecture for Use in Severe Weather Subjective and Objective Forecasting

Margot H. Ackley, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and D. Helms and P. Wolf

P1.92

Forecasting Heavy Wintertime Precipitation Events in Southern California (Formerly Paper 9.6)

Katherine M. Bell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and F. J. Pereira, N. W. Junker, R. H. Grumm, and R. E. Hart

Handout (222.8 kB)

P1.93

Understanding the effects of complex terrain on Intermountain cyclogenesis (Formerly Paper 9.8)

Gregory L. West, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and J. Shafer and J. Steenburgh

P1.94

The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS): Citizen's Measuring, Mapping and Learning about Precipitation

Henry Reges, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. C. Cifelli and N. J. Doesken

P1.95

The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) - Providing Value-Added Observations to the Meteorological Community

Patricia A. Miller, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. Barth, L. Benjamin, D. Helms, M. Campbell, J. Facundo, and J. O'Sullivan

Registration Open (Broadcast Meeting Starts)

Session 6A

Hazardous Weather Tools–Satellite, Radar and Mesoscale Networks of Observing Sensors, including Hydrology

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS

CoChair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel

8:00 AM

6A.1

Using LDAR II total lightning data in an operational setting: Experiences at WFO Fort Worth TX

Gregory R. Patrick, NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and N. W. S. Demetriades

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.9 MB)

8:15 AM

6A.2

The testing of NSSL multi-sensor applications and data from prototype platforms in NWS forecast operations

Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and T. M. Smith and G. J. Stumpf

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

8:30 AM

6A.3

The Impact of Simulated GEMS Observations on Regional Weather Forecasts

Joseph G. Dreher, ENSCO, Inc., Melbourne, FL; and J. Manobianco and M. Adams

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

6A.4

Reflective storm tops: a satellite method for inferring thunderstorm top microphysical structure

Daniel T. Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and L. Grasso

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (439.6 kB)

9:00 AM

6A.5

Quality control of gridded national radar reflectivity data

Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Liang

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (575.4 kB)

9:15 AM

6A.6

New radar and severe weather predictive tools

Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and D. R. L. Rainey and M. A. Steinberg

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

6A.7

Use of Surface Mesonet Data in the NCEP Regional Gridpoint Statistical-Interpolation (GSI) System

Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Parrish, W. S. Wu, M. Pondeca, D. Keyser, and G. DiMego

Presentation PDF (870.4 kB)

9:45 AM

6A.8

Supertyphoon Dale (1996): An impact from the deep tropics to the arctic

Eric P. Kelsey, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded presentation

Session 6B

Tropical Forecasting

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University

8:00 AM

6B.1

Dynamical structures and precipitation distributions of transitioning tropical cyclones in Eastern Canada, 1979–2004

Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

8:15 AM

6B.2

The tropical transition of Hurricane Alex (2004): Observations and forecast implications

Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded presentation

8:30 AM

6B.3

Synoptic Composites of the Extratropical Transition Lifecycle of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Factors Determining Post-Transition Evolution

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans and C. Evans

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)

8:45 AM

6B.4

Modeling the initialization and tropical transition Hurricane Alex (2004)

R. McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. A. Davis and L. Bosart

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

6B.5

Examining planetary, synoptic, and mesoscale features that enhance precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones making landfall over North Carolina (Formerly Poster P1.62)

Meredith S. Croke, UCAR/COMET, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, L. Xie, and K. Keeter

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (844.6 kB)

Session 1

Broadcasters Storm the Hill

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Jillene Wahl, WYFF-TV

8:40 AM

1.1

Welcome to Washington D.C

Robert T. Ryan, WRC-TV, Washington, DC; and D. Hill and T. Shutt

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

14.1

Broadcast Meteorology–How are we doing in the year 2005?

Mark A. Reynolds, WJHL-TV, Johnson City, TN

9:20 AM

1.3

Hurricane Ivan...was I the Terrible?

Bob Breck, WVUE-TV, New Orleans, LA

Recorded presentation

9:40 AM

1.4

The impact of legislation on broadcast meteorologists

Barry Lee Myers, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and D. J. N. Myers and M. A. Steinberg

Session 6C

Hydrometeorology–Flash Floods

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University

CoChair: Ron McTaggart, SUNY

9:30 AM

6C.1

Forecast tools and considerations for four recent flash floods

Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.1 MB)

9:45 AM

6C.2

The Evolution of a Warm Season Severe Eastern Kentucky Flash Flood

Christina Henry, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, C. Smallcomb, M. Mclane, and D. Champlin

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)

10:00 AM

6C.3

An assessment of key aspects of warm and cool season severe flash flooding in the Southern Appalachians

William Baldwin, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and R. Mahmood

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (226.1 kB)

Coffee Break

Session 2

Risky Business: Severe Weather

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Jay Prater, KAKE-TV

10:30 AM

2.1

2004 Year in Tornadoes: What A Year It Was!

Daniel W. McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Schaefer

Presentation PDF (175.0 kB)

10:45 AM

2.2

Severe Weather Workshop

Daniel W. McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK

Session 7

The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecast Experiment

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR/DTC

CoChair: Nelson Seaman, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

7.1

The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecasting Experiment (DWFE)

Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and L. B. Nance, H. Y. Chuang, A. Loughe, M. Demirtas, S. Koch, and R. Gall

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

10:45 AM

7.2

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Verification of DWFE

Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, Y. Lin, A. Loughe, R. L. Gall, S. E. Koch, and J. L. Mahoney

Presentation PDF (271.6 kB)

11:00 AM

7.3

An examination of the performance of two high-resolution numerical models for forecasting extended snow bands during the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment

Ed Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and D. Novak

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.5 MB)

11:15 AM

7.4

Evaluation of high resolution model QPF performance in the complex terrain of the Great Basin as part of the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment

Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA; and M. Jackson and E. Szoke

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

7.5

Modeling insights and scientific interactions stimulated by DWFE and DTC

11:45 AM

7.6

Lessons learned from the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, G. J. DiMego, E. Szoke, J. S. Waldstreicher, P. Manousos, B. N. Meisner, N. Seaman, M. Jackson, R. Graham, A. Edman, and D. Nietfeld

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)

Lunch Break

Session 8B

Part 1: Reaching the goals outlined in the first "Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process"

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

Session 3

Messy Business: Winter Weather

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Katie Horner, KCTV-5

1:30 PM

3.1

The night the lights went out in Georgia

Gene Norman, WGCL-TV, Atlanta, GA

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

3.2

Winter Weather Workshop

Peter Manousos, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD

Session 8A

Mesoscale Observations and Modeling of Winter Weather

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET

CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

8A.1

WSI realtime winter precipitation forecasting using WRF

Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (348.1 kB)

1:45 PM

8A.2

Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type

Matthew S. Wandishin, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. L. Mullen, M. E. Baldwin, and J. V. Cortinas Jr.

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

8A.3

January 29, 2005 ice storms in western North Carolina: a diagnosis using the WRF model

Chris E. Blanton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

8A.4

High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations over Iceland for weather forecasting (HRAS)

Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson, H. Ágústsson, E. M. Einarsson, and Ö. Rögnvaldsson

Recorded presentation

2:30 PM

8A.5

Examination and verification of temperature-precipitation relationships in the Canadian operational numerical weather prediction models

Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. A. Isaac

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

8A.6

An overview of precipitation type forecasting using NAM and SREF data

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (215.1 kB)

Coffee Break

Session 4

Putting your entourage together

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: David Bernard, WWL-TV

3:30 PM

4.1

University Partnerships: the Huntsville, Alabama Experiment

Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, B. T. Huffines, and K. Watts

Recorded presentation

3:45 PM

4.2

Covering the Storm: Broadcasting from the NWS Storm Prediction Center and other National Centers

Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and K. Tarp

Presentation PDF (20.2 kB)

4:00 PM

4.3

Clustering Severe Storms Across the United States

Joseph Schaefer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean and D. McCarthy

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (143.1 kB)

4:15 PM

4.4

User–Centric™ Weather–The Future of Broadcast Meteorology

Michael R. Smith, WeatherData, Inc., Wichita, KS

Recorded presentation

Session 9

Terrain Forcing and Mesoscale Aspects of Winter Storms

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET

CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS

3:30 PM

9.1

Investigating stability evolution of two winter storms using mobile GAUS data

Larry L. Smith, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. Pettegrew, C. J. Melick, and P. S. Market

Presentation PDF (795.4 kB)

3:45 PM

9.2

Improving the forecasting of barrier jets along coastal Alaska using remote sensing, modeling, and a SARJET field study

Nathaniel S. Winstead, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD; and B. A. Colle, J. B. Olson, G. S. Young, K. Loescher, and N. A. Bond

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.2 MB)

4:00 PM

9.3

High-resolution modeling of the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. banded snowstorm

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and B. A. Colle and D. Keyser

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (858.9 kB)

4:15 PM

9.4

Forecasting Extreme Wintertime Precipitation Events in Northern California

Norman Junker, Retired from NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Grumm, R. Hart, L. F. Bosart, K. M. Bell, and F. J. Pereira

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (227.4 kB)

4:30 PM

9.5

Does increasing the resolution of numerical forecasts improve forecast accuracy over fine-scale Intermountain orography?

W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. A. Hart and D. J. Onton

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

9.6

Paper moved to Poster Session

5:00 PM

9.7

High resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Wolfe, J. Steenburgh, D. Kingsmill, J. A. W. Cox, and J. Shafer

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

Session 5

Capital Ideas - Vendor Session

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

4:30 PM

5.1

WSI. The disruptive weather company

Chris Goode, Director of Media Sales, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA

4:37 PM

5.2

Hyper-LOCAL…24X7

Peter Levy, President, Weather Metrics, Inc., Lenexa, KS

4:44 PM

5.3

ESP:LIVE

Joe DiGiovanni, WSI, Madison, WI

4:51 PM

5.4

USEPA's SunWise Program and Meteorologist: Working Together to Teach Kids Sun Safety

Linda Rutsch, USEPA SunWise Team, Washington, DC

4:58 PM

5.5

Public Safety Alert (PSA) Program

Bruce Thomas, Chief Meteorologist, Midland Radio Corp, Kansas City, MO

5:05 PM

5.6

Baron Services

Robert Baron, Baron Services, Inc., Huntsville, AL

5:12 PM

5.7

The Eco-celli Barometer--the first and only liquid mercury-free barometer

Mike Matvichuk, Allivan Marketing, LLC, Tyngsboro, MA

5:19 PM

5.8

Enhancements to the Galileo weather system

Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and R. Ayres and M. Steinberg

Sessions End for the Day

Formal Opening of Exhibits

Session 10A

Case Studies

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS

CoChair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA

8:00 AM

10A.1

The role of conveyor belts in organizing processes associated with heavy banded snowfall

James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves

Recorded presentation

8:15 AM

10A.2

Propagating nocturnal convection within a 7-day WRF-model simulation

S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, S. M. Frederick, and J. D. Tuttle

Recorded presentation

8:30 AM

10A.3

NWP with the Weather Research and Forecast model and local data assimilation as a prelude to “Neighborhood Weather”

Patrick T. Welsh, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL; and J. D. Lambert and P. Bogenschutz

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

8:45 AM

10A.4

Investigation of stability characteristics of thundersnow events utilizing the growth rate parameter

Christopher J. Melick, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and L. Smith, B. Pettegrew, and P. Market

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (713.2 kB)

9:00 AM

10A.5

Analysis of a Texas tornado outbreak involving three modalities of enhanced tornadogenesis

Lon Curtis, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (731.3 kB)

9:15 AM

10A.6

Atmospheric Processes Assocoated with Heavy Rainfall During the Extra-Tropical Transitions of Ivan and Frances

Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS, Johnson City, NY; and M. S. Evans

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1020.4 kB)

9:30 AM

10A.7

A case study of a rare severe thunderstorm with snowfall

Brian Pettegrew, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, R. A. Wolf, and P. J. Roebber

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (521.2 kB)

9:45 AM

10A.8

Ice clouds in extratropical cyclones

Florian Weidle, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and H. Wernli

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (189.5 kB)

Session 10B

Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 2: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Forecasters

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

Session 6

Taking the Floor: Meet the Broadcast Board

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Lisa Spencer, WSMV-TV

Keynote Speaker

Political Science

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

9:30 AM

Partnerships for Environmental Literacy, serving the American

D. L. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Coffee Break

1

Exhibits Open

Joint Session 1

Joint AMS Panel on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )

Moderator: Ron McPherson, AMS

Panelists: Heidi Cullen, The Weather Channel; Bryan Hannegan, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Ed Olenic, NCEP; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University

Lunch Break

Joint Session 2

Environmental Education, Training, and Outreach

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )

Chair: Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET

1:30 PM

J2.1

Supporting the broadcast meteorology community through continuing education initiatives

Elizabeth Mulvihill Page, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Fishel

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (101.4 kB)

1:45 PM

J2.2

Weather impacts on watersheds: development of Web-based curriculum for broadcast meteorologists

Joseph Lamos, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. Owens, M. Kelsch, S. Espinoza, and D. Sliter

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

J2.3

The Numerical Weather Prediction Professional Development Series (NWP PDS)

William R. Bua, UCAR, College Park, MD; and S. D. Jascourt

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (876.8 kB)

2:15 PM

J2.4

Satellite education and training resources for the forecast community: advances in meteorological satellite data and applications

Patrick N. Dills, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and S. Wang

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (657.8 kB)

2:30 PM

J2.5

COMET Marine and Coastal Meteorology Modules

Kevin Fuell, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Wesley and A. J. Bol

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

2:45 PM

J2.6

COMET ensemble prediction training

William R. Bua, UCAR, College Park, MD

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (684.9 kB)

3:00 PM

J2.7

COMET® case studies in hydrometeorology training

Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

Exhibits Open

Coffee Break

Joint Session 3

Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 3: Roles of the Public and Private Sector

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )

Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

Session 7

IABM Annual General Meeting: Everyone Welcome

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Sessions End for the Day

Session 11A

Ensembles I

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Maria A. Perone, AER

CoChair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET

8:00 AM

11A.1

The North American Ensemble Forecast System

Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, B. Cui, P. L. Houtekamer, L. J. Wilson, R. Verret, R. Hogue, R. Wobus, D. Unger, E. Olenic, B. A. Gordon, and G. Pellerin

Recorded presentation

8:15 AM

11A.2

Recent Upgrades to the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System (SREF) and Future Plans

Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (114.0 kB)

8:30 AM

11A.3

An Evaluation of Short-Term MOS and Short-Term Ensemble MOS Temperature Forecasts

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA; and R. Holmes and J. Villani

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (147.0 kB)

8:45 AM

11A.4

Evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast United States

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones and J. S. Tongue

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (284.5 kB)

9:00 AM

11A.5

COAMPS® ocean ensemble forecast

Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

11A.6

An Evaluation of Ensemble MOS Temperature Forecasts from the Medium Range Ensemble Forecast System

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA; and J. Villani and R. Hart

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (149.3 kB)

9:30 AM

11A.7

Wind Energy Forecasting Using Time Lagged Ensembles

Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/FSL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz, S. G. Benjamin, and M. Schwartz

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

11A.8

An ensemble strategy for road weather applications

Paul Schultz, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (109.6 kB)

Session 11B

Model Verification

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM

8:00 AM

11B.1

Verification over the western United States of surface temperature forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database

David T. Myrick, University of Utah and NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel

Recorded presentation

8:15 AM

11B.2

University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble system post-processing and verification

Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Recorded presentation

8:30 AM

11B.3

The Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics

Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Baars

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

11B.4

Objective verification of high-resolution WRF forecasts during 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program

Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (245.2 kB)

9:00 AM

11B.5

Object-based verification approaches for NWP

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, D. L. Rife, and R. Bullock

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

11B.6

Comparison of sea–level pressure errors between the U.S. East and West Coasts during the cool seasons of 2000–2005

Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Curley, B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

11B.7

An evaluation of the impacts of grid resolution on the verification of aviation weather forecasts

9:45 AM

11B.8

Verification of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over Germany

Marcus Paulat, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and C. Frei, M. Hagen, and H. Wernli

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (417.2 kB)

10:00 AM

11B.7A

Ensemble forecast and verification of low level wind shear by the NCEP SREF system (Formerly Poster P1.64)

Binbin Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

Session 8

Something in the Air

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Robin Reed, WDBJ-TV

8:45 AM

8.1

Have NBC’s WeatherPlus channels changed the broadcast weather environment?

Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and D. R. L. Rainey and M. A. Steinberg

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

8.2

A New Federal Alert System for Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation

Jason Samenow, U.S. EPA, Washington, DC; and C. S. Long and S. Monroe

9:15 AM

8.3

A perfect smog storm: review of the particle pollution episode in the Midwest from January 31 to February 6, 2005

Timothy S. Dye, Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA; and A. C. Chan, C. E. Lengyel, R. A. Wayland, and J. E. White

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

8.4

U.S. EPA's AIRNow program: A partnership broadcasters can breathe easy over

Richard A. Wayland, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. E. White, S. A. Jackson, and T. S. Dye

Recorded presentation

Session 9

More Than Hot Air

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Wayne Hart, WEHT-TV

9:30 AM

9.1

How do communities respond? Intervention activities to lower heat-related mortality

Alan D. Perrin, U.S. EPA, Washington, DC; and J. Samenow

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

9.2

A National Heat/Health Warning System: Improvement over current system

Mark Tew, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

1

Exhibits Open

Session 10

Monumental Ideas

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Greg Fishel, WRAL-TV

10:30 AM

10.1

Using satellite imagery to improve on-air forecasts and nowcasts

Daniel T. Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO

11:00 AM

10.2

Put Some Meteors in Your Meteorology

J. Kelly Beatty, Night Sky Magazine, Cambridge, MA

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

10.3

The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS): Citizen Science for Volunteers and Preciptiation Information for Decision Makers

Henry Reges, CoCoRaHS Network/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. Cifelli and N. J. Doesken

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

10.4

The weather pattern cycle discovery (forecasting long range)

Gary Lezak, Shawnee, KS

Recorded presentation

Session 12A

Forecasting Challenges in the Urban Enrivonment

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR

10:30 AM

12A.1

NOAA-EPA’s New National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Transitioning Research to Operations

Paula Davidson, NOAA/NWS/STI, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Mathur, J. T. McQueen, R. A. Wayland, N. Seaman, and K. Carey

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

12A.2

Update to and Recent Performance of the NAM-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast Model at NCEP operations

Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and P. C. Lee, M. Tsidulko, G. DiMego, T. Otte, J. Pleim, G. Pouliout, J. Young, D. Kang, P. M. Davidson, and N. Seaman

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (322.3 kB)

11:00 AM

12A.3

Planetary Boundary Layer height and surface ozone verification in the NOAA/EPA Air Quality Forecast System

Marina Tsidulko, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego, M. Ek, J. McQueen, P. Lee, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. Otte, G. A. Pouliot, D. Wong, J. Young, K. Schere, P. Davidson, N. Seaman, and M. Schenk

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

12A.4

Aerosol forecast by Eta-CMAQ for the poor air quality episode in early February 2005

Pius Lee, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. McQueen, R. Mathur, M. Tsidulko, S. Kondragunta, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. L. Otte, J. O. Young, G. Pouliot, G. DiMego, K. Schere, P. Davidson, and N. Seaman

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (613.7 kB)

11:30 AM

12A.5

Perth, Western Australia wildfires of January 2005: Meteorological challenges of fire control and smoke plume predicition in a forest - urban environment

Bruce William Buckley, Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and G. Reader

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

12A.6

Storm surge modeling for the New York City metropolitan region

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. J. Bowman, R. E. Wilson, R. Flood, D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto, Y. Zheng, R. Hunter, and C. Mirchel

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (969.3 kB)

Session 12B

Ensembles II

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET

CoChair: Maria A. Perone, AER

10:30 AM

12B.1

Treatment of model error through ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation

Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

12B.2

Statistical Post-processing of Operational & CDC Hindcast Ensembles

Bo Cui, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

12B.3

Probabilistic evaluation of MCV dynamics and predictability through ensemble forecasting

Dan Hawblitzel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

12B.4

Hybrid dynamical-analog ensembles for forecasts with late medium-range lead times

Justin G. McLay, National Research Council/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

12B.5

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS model

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill

Recorded presentation

12B.6

Regional scale ensemble prediction in the Mediterranean

Session

Luncheon -- Joint -- Speaker Bob Ryan

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Luncheon–Joint–Speaker Bob Ryan

Session 11

Different Languages, Same Weather

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Ronald Hearst, KYTV-3

1:30 PM

11.1

Diplomacy 101: Geneva and the WMO

John Toohey-Morales, WTVJ NBC-6, Miami, FL

1:45 PM

11.2

Weathercasts the world over

Tomas Molina, International Association of Broadcast Meteorology, Barcelona, Spain

Session 13A

Data Assimilation I

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC

1:30 PM

13A.1

Assimilation of simulated network radar data of varied storm types using EnSRF for convective storm analyses and forecasts

Elaine S. Godfrey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Tong, M. Xue, and K. Droegemeier

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (209.4 kB)

1:45 PM

13A.2

Impact of Configurations of Rapid Intermittent Assimilation of WSR-88D Radar Data for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Thunderstorm Case

Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

2:00 PM

13A.3

Assimilation of polarimetric radar data using ensemble Kalman filter:Experiments with simulated data

Youngsun Jung, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and J. M. Straka

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (251.5 kB)

2:15 PM

13A.4

Analysis and Impact of Super-obbed Doppler Radial Velocity in the NCEP Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis System

Shun Liu, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, J. Gao, and D. Parrish

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.5 MB)

2:30 PM

13A.5

Application of Doppler Radar Data Assimilation on the Retrieval of a Mei-yu Front within the Taiwan Strait Associated with a Heavy Rain Event

Hsi-Chyi Yeh, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (274.9 kB)

2:45 PM

13A.6

Radar Data Assimilation in a Regional Model of KMA

Duk-Jin Won, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. H. Lim and Q. Xiao

Presentation PDF (813.3 kB)

Session 13B

Statistical Modeling

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET

1:30 PM

13B.1

Using geographic information systems to develop gridded model output statistics

Kari L. Sheets, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco and K. K. Hughes

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.5 MB)

1:45 PM

13B.2

Toward a gridded MOS system

J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

2:00 PM

13B.3

Improving probabilistic QPF with reforecasts

Thomas M. Hamill, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

13B.4

GFS-based MOS wind forecast guidance for islands in the tropical western Pacific Ocean

James C. Su, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (143.9 kB)

2:30 PM

13B.5

An overview of the redeveloped Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for short-range forecasting

Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Presentation PDF (175.9 kB)

2:45 PM

13B.6

A Summary of Ceiling Height and Total Sky Cover Short-Term Statistical Forecasts in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

Mitchell Weiss, WYLE Information Systems, Inc., McLean, VA; and J. E. Ghirardelli

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (141.7 kB)

Session 12

Being the station scientist

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Gene Norman, WGCL-TV

2:00 PM

12.1

National Weather Service Digital Services: Building a Weather Database Together

Glenn Austin, NOAA/NWS/Office of Climate, Water, & Weather Services, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Horvitz, C. Alex, D. Young, and K. Gurka

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

12.3

Discoveries and Breakthroughs Inside Science (DBIS) Helping you be the Station Scientist

Emilie Lorditch, American Institute of Physics, College Park, MD

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (111.7 kB)

2:30 PM

12.4

Introduction to Being the Station Scientist

Gene Norman, WGCL-TV, Atlanta, GA

Recorded presentation

1

Exhibits Open

Session 14A

Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques I

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA

CoChair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

3:30 PM

14A.1

Towards an operational 1km model

Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and N. M. Roberts

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (96.9 kB)

3:45 PM

14A.2

The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002

Jeremy S. Grams, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr., S. E. Koch, L. S. Wharton, A. Loughe, and E. E. Ebert

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (229.2 kB)

4:00 PM

14A.3

Potential vorticity as a tool for assessing dynamical impacts of latent heat release in model forecasts

Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and K. M. Mahoney

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (360.3 kB)

4:15 PM

14A.4

Objective methods for monitoring Indian Summer Monsoon using NWP products

Vijapurapu S. Prasad, NCMRWF, NOIDA, India; and T. Hayashi

4:30 PM

14A.5

Grid-Based Removal of Systematic Model Bias

Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed and G. Wedam

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

14A.6

Forecasting hail size by combining a NWP model with a hail growth model

Gerhard W. Reuter, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and J. C. Brimelow, R. Goodson, and T. W. Krauss

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (331.0 kB)

14A.7

Climatological aspects of observed and simulated precipitation entities

5:15 PM

14A.8

A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Thompson, S. Wang, and C. S. Liou

Recorded presentation

Session 13

More Being the Station Scientist

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Gene Norman, WGCL-TV

3:30 PM

13.1

Being the station scientist: Getting your resources together

Gene Norman, WGCL-TV, Atlanta, GA

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

13.2

Adding Space Weather to Your Broadcast

Rachel A. Weintraub, NASA, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

13.3

Being the station scientist: Getting your hands dirty

Paul H. Gross, WDIV-TV, Detroit, MI; and K. M. Wilson

Session 14B

Data Assimilation II

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR

3:30 PM

14B.1

Variational assimilation in a propotype limited area model

Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Presentation PDF (246.4 kB)

3:45 PM

14B.2

Progress in Assimilation of Lightning Data into a Mesoscale NWP Model

Antti T. Pessi, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger and T. Cherubini

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

14B.3

Evaluation of the operational 4D-Var at the Meteorological Service of Canada

Stephane Laroche, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Gauthier, M. Tanguay, S. Pellerin, and J. Morneau

Presentation PDF (111.4 kB)

4:15 PM

14B.4

High-resolution coupled land data assimilation in a mesoscale real-time forecast system

Andrea N. Hahmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, F. Chen, K. Manning, and T. Warner

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

14B.5

Direct Assimilation of Satellite Cloudy Radiances with a 3D-VAR System

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

4:45 PM

14B.6

Retrieval of Moisture from GPS Slant-path Water Vapor Observations using 3DVAR with Isotropic and Anisotropic Recursive Filters

Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, R. J. Purser, and D. Parrish

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (415.3 kB)

5:00 PM

14B.7

Multi-Spectral Classification of Hydrometeors Using AMSU-B Data

Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran

Presentation PDF (233.2 kB)

5:15 PM

14B.8

Qualitative Evaluation of the KMA Regional Model Mixing-Depth Prediction Using Wind-Profiler Signal-to-Noise-Ratio Data

Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. D. Yoo and H. Kawai

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

Sessions End for the Day

Session 15A

Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques II

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC

8:00 AM

15A.1

Observing system simulation experiments at NCEP

Michiko Masutani, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Woollen, R. Treadon, J. F. LeMarshall, S. Lord, Z. Toth, and G. D. Emmitt

Presentation PDF (255.1 kB)

8:15 AM

15A.2

High Resolution Global Model of KMA- Preliminary Results

Hae-Jin Lee, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Park, Y. S. Lee, H. D. Yoo, and W. J. Lee

Presentation PDF (180.8 kB)

8:30 AM

15A.3

From global to meso scales with a unified model

Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

15A.4

Enhancements to a Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis Scheme

Eric M. Kemp, Northrop Grumman IT TASC, Chantilly, Virginia; and R. Alliss

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (215.2 kB)

9:00 AM

15A.5

Flow-Dependent Bias correction to the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting system

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. Dimego, and B. Zhou

9:15 AM

15A.6

Data Assimilation as Synchronization of Truth and Model: Experiments with the Three-Variable Lorenz System

Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Baker, G. Nagpal, E. Kalnay, K. Cordes, M. Huff, E. Okereke, J. Villafae, and G. S. Duane

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

15A.7

Bred vectors and forecast error in the NASA coupled general circulation model

Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, M. Cai, and M. Rienecker

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (267.7 kB)

9:45 AM

15A.8

A bi-cylindrical "Yin-Yang" global grid geometry applied to the NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model

R. James Purser, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. I. Janjic and T. L. Black

Session 15B

Data Assimilation III

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA

8:00 AM

15B.1

A comparison of sea level pressure analyses derived from QuikSCAT winds to manual surface analyses produced in the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center

Joan M. Von Ahn, STG, Inc. and NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. M. Sienkiewicz and J. Patoux

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (73.6 kB)

8:15 AM

15B.2

The "Chromatic Hexad" method for adaptive anisotropic covariance synthesis

R. James Purser, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (145.6 kB)

8:30 AM

15B.3

Real-time ensemble data assimilation at the University of Washington

Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

8:45 AM

15B.4

Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis

Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn

15B.5

Impact of data density in ensemble filters and smoothers

9:15 AM

15B.6

Impact of model error and imperfect initial condition perturbations on ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: UNPREDICTABLE SPOTS

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

9:30 AM

15B.7

A sequential variational analysis approach for mesoscale data assimilation

Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Koch, J. A. McGinley, S. Albers, and N. Wang

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

9:45 AM

15B.8

Adaptive estimation of background and observation error statistics in variational data assimilation

Zhuo Liu, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Buehner and P. Gauthier

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (158.8 kB)

Session 14

Do You Want Another Term?? Career Session

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Mark Nelsen, KPTV

9:00 AM

14.1

Broadcast Meteorology–How are we doing in the year 2005?

Mark A. Reynolds, WJHL-TV, Johnson City, TN

9:30 AM

14.2

A retiring broadcast pioneer reflects

Harry Volkman, WFLD-TV, Chicago, IL

Coffee Break

Panel Discussion 1

Career Panel from the Broadcast Industry

Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Chair: Veronica Johnson, NBC4

Session 16A

Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques III

Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

16A.1

Fully explicit real-time WRF forecasts of Frances, Ivan and Jeanne (2004)

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and G. J. Holland

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

16A.2

Ongoing experiments to improve cloud and precipitation forecasts from the WRF NMM modeling system

Brad S. Ferrier, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, and H. Y. Chuang

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (124.2 kB)

11:00 AM

16A.3

High-resolution winter-season NWP: Preliminary evaluation of the WRF ARW and NMM cores in the DWFE forecast experiment

William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dempsey

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.1 MB)

11:15 AM

16A.4

High resolution applications of the WRF NMM

Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, H. Y. Chuang, and G. DiMego

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

11:30 AM

16A.5

A comparison of WRF forecasts made using differing sources for initial and boundary conditions

Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

16A.6

The hurricane WRF-ARW modeling system: Tests results for the nested automatic hurricane tracking implementation

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Michalakes, D. Gill, W. Skamarock, W. Wang, and J. Cangialosi

Session 16B

Model Parameterization

Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)

Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM

10:30 AM

16B.1

Well-mixed atmospheric boundary layers in the MM5 and WRF models

Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

Recorded presentation

10:45 AM

16B.2

The influence of convective parameterization on model forecasts of an East Coast cyclone

Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (725.4 kB)

11:00 AM

16B.3

The impact of different WRF model physical parameterizations and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall

Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Segal, and S. Koch

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (104.5 kB)

11:15 AM

16B.4

The impact of convective parameterization on NAM forecasts for the February 25 2005 Winter Storm

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (258.5 kB)

11:30 AM

16B.5

Implementation of a mass-flux parameterization of shallow cumulus convection for the NCEP global forecast system

Jongil Han, SRG at NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. L. Pan and F. Yang

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

16B.6

Applicability of grid-size-dependent Convection Parameterization to meso-gamma-scale HIRLAM

Sami J. A. Niemelä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and C. Fortelius

Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (365.7 kB)

Conference Ends

Lunch Break

Coffee Break

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