34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology/21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

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12:00 AM-12:00 AM:


Sun 31 July

Thursday, 28 July 2005

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Thursday, 28 July 2005


Fri 5 Aug


Thurs 4 Aug


Tue 2 Aug


Wed 3 Aug

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 28 July 2005


Coffee Break

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 28 July 2005


Luncheon with Guest Speaker Joint with Broadcast Conference

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 28 July 2005


Coffee Break

Sunday, 31 July 2005

4:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 31 July 2005


Registration Opens

Monday, 1 August 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Mon 1 Aug

7:00 AM-8:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Registration continues through Friday, 5 August

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


1
Opening Session
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM

Papers:
  8:00 AM
1.1
Opening Remarks
Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD

  8:45 AM
1.3
NCEP: NWP in the era of common infrastructures WRF & ESMF
Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and G. DiMego

8:30 AM-8:30 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Short Course (Broadcast) Include Lunch

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


2B
Forecasting Tools – Helping the Public Understand the Impact of Daily Weather Forecasts
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel
CoChair: Douglas C. Young, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  10:30 AM
WSI's Operational Implementation of the WRF model
Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis, S. Marshall, and C. Liu

  10:45 AM
Defining cognitive decision making processes in forecasting: a knowledge based system to generate weather graphics
Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

http://www.weather-climate.com

  11:00 AM
Assessing forecast uncertainty in the National Digital Forecast Database
Matthew R. Peroutka, NOAA/NWS/Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra and J. L. Wagner

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/%7Eperoutka/Uncertainty/index.html

 
2B.4
An approach to creating an integrated graphical hazards outlook product

  11:30 AM
An internet site for professional meteorologists
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and J. T. Candor and M. A. Steinberg

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


2A
Applications to Support Weather Forecasts – Nowcasting and Weather Impacts Analyses
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems

Papers:
  10:30 AM
Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Kain and M. E. Baldwin

  10:45 AM
A simple physically based snowfall algorithm
Daniel K. Cobb Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Grand Rapids, MI; and J. S. Waldstreicher

  11:00 AM
The Meteorological Service of Canada/COMET partnership….an international success story
Peter Lewis, MSC, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia; and G. Toth, B. Muller, and D. Wesley

  11:30 AM
Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, G. W. Carbin, D. Bright, J. J. Levit, and J. A. Hart

  11:45 AM
Using The WRF Model To Simulate Flow Through California’s Altamont Pass
John W. Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and G. E. Van Knowe and K. T. Waight

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


3
Convection and Precipitation
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
CoChair: Eyad Atallah, McGill University

Papers:
  1:30 PM
3.1
The effects of organized upstream convection on downstream precipitation
Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

  1:45 PM
3.2
  2:00 PM
3.3
Use of proximity sounding parameters to improve the prediction of Mesoscale Convective system (MCS) speed and dissipation
Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks and S. J. Weiss

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/Summer_2005

  2:15 PM
3.4
Analysis of a cold-air precipitation event: Observational diagnosis and numerical model sensitivity
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

  2:30 PM
3.5
Cool-season regime transition and its impact on precipitation in the Northeast
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, A. Aiyyer, and R. H. Grumm

  2:45 PM
3.6
Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Cloud-resolving experiments and multistage error growth dynamics
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and N. Bei, R. Rotunno, and C. Snyder

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


4A
Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ.
CoChair: Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M Univ.

Papers:
  3:45 PM
A study of coherent tropopause disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric circumpolar vortex
Joseph R. Kravitz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and A. Aiyyer

  4:00 PM
Hurricane force extratropical cyclones
Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. M. Von Ahn and G. M. McFadden

  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
The Fiftieth Anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale model simulation of the cold front of 17-18 April 1953
David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Roebber


4B
Operational Model Development
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
CoChair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Recent improvements to NRL's mesoscale modeling system
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, J. C. Golaz, R. M. Hodur, T. Holt, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. E. Nachamkin, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

  3:45 PM
From the RUC to the Rapid Refresh
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. Dévényi, T. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, S. E. Peckham, K. J. Brundage, S. Weygandt, T. W. Schlatter, J. Brown, and T. L. Smith

  4:00 PM
Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, D. Rao, J. Derber, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, N. Surgi, and F. Toepfer

  4:15 PM
The Operational WRF NMM at NCEP
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pyle and H. Y. Chuang

  4:30 PM
The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System: Final Eta model/analysis changes and preliminary experiments using the WRF-NMM
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, B. S. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, M. Pondeca, M. Pyle, V. C. K. Wong, and W. S. Wu

4:45 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


5A
Large- and Synoptic-Scale Processes
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin
CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri

Papers:
  4:45 PM
Dust Transport Application forecasting of Middle Eastern, African and Asian Dust Storms
B. H. Barnum, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD; and N. S. Winstead, G. R. Brooks, P. Ginoux, L. Burke, J. Lippman, B. Toth, and I. Gotchel

  5:00 PM
Climate change and teleconnection patterns: An analysis of temperature and flow regime trends over North America
Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Aiyyer, J. R. Gyakum, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and L. Bosart

  5:15 PM
A Statistical analysis and synoptic climatology of heat waves over the United States
Scott C. Runyon, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart


5B
Socioeconomic impacts of forecasts
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL

Papers:
  4:45 PM
Expert Mental Modeling of the Weather Forecast System
Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Zia and R. E. Morss

  5:00 PM
Distance learning training for aviation forecasters: The impact of weather on air traffic management
Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and V. C. Johnson and D. K. Cobb Jr.

http://meted.ucar.edu/nas/

  5:15 PM

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day


Sessions End for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Poster Session 1
Conference Posters
Location: Regency Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
 
The impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and Lyapunov exponents as a diagnostic
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and I. I. Mokhov, S. Dostoglou, A. Kunz, and J. P. Burkhardt

Poster PDF (214.1 kB)
 
A climatology of strong cold fronts over the western United States
Jason C. Shafer, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

 
Cool-season moderate precipitation events in the Northeastern United States
Keith R. Wagner, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. S. Evans

 
HPC's Excessive Rainfall Potential Outlook
Michael T. Eckert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

 
The flash flood of 12 July 2004 in Burlington County, New Jersey: A case study
Michael J. Gorse, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Poster PDF (436.6 kB)
 
Observed Bow Echo events during the first week of July 2003 concurrent with BAMEX
Nicholas D. Metz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

 
Examining the role of mesoscale features in the structure and evolution of precipitation regions in northeast winter storms
Matthew D. Greenstein, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. J. Nicosia

 
An examination of cool-season damaging wind events in the northern mid-Atlantic region
Raymond Kruzdlo, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Poster PDF (2.2 MB)
 
Using Multi-Spectral Satellite Remote Sensing Techniques to Nowcast Nocturnal Convection Initiation
Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski

Poster PDF (707.3 kB)
 
Dominant factors influencing precipitation efficiency in a continental mid-latitude location
Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, Malaysian Meteorological Service, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Poster PDF (308.8 kB)
 
An observational analysis of an Alabama dryline event on March 19–20, 2003
Robert E. Barbre Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, K. Knupp, W. Mackenzie Jr., P. Gatlin, and D. Phillips

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)
 
Warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone development: Sensitivity to the nature of the incipient vortex
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Poster PDF (372.7 kB)
 
Wet snow icing upstream of mountains
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson

 
Wet snow icing downstream of mountains
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson

 
Warm season extreme quantitative precipitation forecasting for the Burlington, VT region
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah, P. Sisson, M. Kimball, and A. Roberge

Poster PDF (848.8 kB)
 
Validation of a numerical wind forecast by dust image
Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland

 
The textbook foehn
Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland

 
The response filter
Mark Askelson, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and H. Lin, M. Solum, and C. Chambers

Poster PDF (715.1 kB)
 
The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real—time implementation within NWS web—based graphical forecasts
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence

Poster PDF (115.3 kB)
 
Spurious pressure and geopotential height fluctuations in the North American Regional Reanalysis
Gregory L. West, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh

 
Solving for Pressure: Accuracy and Acceleration
Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Poster PDF (176.6 kB)
 
Sloping Steps Eta Discretization
Fedor Mesinger, Univ. Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Jovic

 
Simulating a windstorm upstream of steep mountains
H.álfdáN. Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

 
P1.32
Sequential estimation of systematic error on near-surface mesoscale grids

 
Sensitivity of Hurricane Charley simulations to changes in the WRF model
Matthew J. Rosier, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. K. Miller

Poster PDF (300.6 kB)
 
Satellite and numerical model data—driven cloud ceiling and visibility estimation
Richard Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, P. H. Herzegh, G. Wiener, J. Cowie, and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (255.5 kB)
 
Predicting precipitation in a mesoscale mountain range
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson

 
Numerical prediction of atmospheric icing
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and C. Ubelmann and G. Hafsteinsson

http://www.vedur.is/starfsmenn/haraldur

Poster PDF (358.8 kB)
 
Precpitation downstream of a mesoscale mountain ridge
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson

 
Precipitation Verification Studies of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model along the East Coast of the US
Paul A. Kucera, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and C. M. Paulsen and M. Taffe

 
Precipitation extreme downstream of a mountain
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Jónsson

 
Optimally shifted QPF verification scores
Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. G. Brown, K. F. Brill, and G. J. DiMego

Poster PDF (571.9 kB)
 
On the performance, impact, and liabilities of automated precipitation gage screening algorithms
Edward Tollerud, NOAA Research-FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, Y. Lin, and A. Loughe

Poster PDF (859.4 kB)
 
Observations and simulation of a windstorm below breaking gravity waves
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson

 
Nowcasting Applications of the Space—Time Mesoscale Analysis System
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, J. A. McGinley, and S. Albers

Poster PDF (2.6 MB)
 
NOAA's Deployment of the Water Vapor Sensor System (WVSS II)
David Helms, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Fellows, T. Roberts, K. Schrab, F. Toepfer, B. Ballish, R. Baker, R. J. Fleming, R. May, R. A. Petersen, and W. R. Moninger

 
NCEP SREF Forecasts of three Hurricanes during the 2004 Tropical Season
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA, State College, PA; and J. Du

Poster PDF (549.2 kB)
 
MM5IDL: A Flexible Framework for Post—Processing MM5 Data
Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and Ö. Rögnvaldsson

Poster PDF (579.5 kB)
 
Intermountain cold pool structure, transport, and mixing as revealed by isotopic trace gas and particulate matter concentrations over the Salt Lake Valley
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Pataki, E. Pardyjak, J. Kiran, B. Tyler, R. Peterson, and A. Nair

 
Impacts of model errors and ensemble initiation on mesoscale ensemble-based data assimilation
Zhiyong Meng, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang

 
Hydrological validation of a numerical simulation of a high-precipitation event in the complex terrain of South-Iceland
Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and G. G. Tómasson and H. Ólafsson

 
Gustiness of downslope winds
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson and S. Árnason

 
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation for Rapid Refresh
Dezso Dévényi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES-University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Middlecoff, T. W. Schlatter, and S. S. Weygandt

Poster PDF (80.2 kB)
 
GOES WMSI—progress and developments
Kenneth L. Pryor, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and G. P. Ellrod

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/kpryor/mburst/wmsipaper/wmsi.html

Poster PDF (248.9 kB)
 
Forecasting stratospheric clouds
Trausti Jónsson, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

 
Forecasting snow squalls using mesoscale models
Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. Krajewski

 
Forecasting Heat Waves Using Climatic Anomalies
Kevin Lipton, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm, R. Holmes, P. G. Knight, and J. D. Ross

Poster PDF (633.2 kB)
 
A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper—Ocean Depth—Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies (Formerly Paper 6B.5)
Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart and C. A. Clayson

Poster PDF (548.7 kB)
 
Ensemble data assimilation and information theory
Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, L. Grasso, A. Y. Hou, S. Zhang, and D. Bikos

Poster PDF (555.7 kB)
 
Development of a new radiation scheme for the global atmospheric NWP model
Shigeki Murai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Yabu and H. Kitagawa

Poster PDF (297.0 kB)
 
Daytime boundary layer structure and flows with interacting lake, valley, and urban circulations
Justin A. W. Cox, NOAA/CIRP, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh and C. D. Whiteman

 
Data Assimilation on the NASA fvGCM with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
Elana Klein, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Li, J. Liu, I. Szunyogh, B. Hunt, E. Kalnay, E. J. Kostelich, and R. Todling

 
Coastal precipitation enhancement due to mesoscale features induced by a landfalling tropical cyclone
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari

 
Cloud-Top Temperatures for Precipitating Winter Clouds
Jay Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and D. M. Schultz and A. Irving

 
Characteristics of water vapor structure of two cold front systems over central U.S.: High—resolution numerical simulations
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Demoz, X. Li, C. Liu, D. Whiteman, D. D. Turner, and R. M. Hoff

Poster PDF (395.6 kB)
 
Bridging high-resolution model and coarse ensemble system: Hybrid Ensembling
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego

 
Assessment of numerical weather forecasts over SW-Iceland
Thordur Arason, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

 
Application of Brasseur's gust prediction method
Hálfdán Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

 
Combining Phase Error Correction and 3DVAR in Storm—Scale Data Assimilation
Yun Zhou, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. Brewster, M. Hu, and M. Xue

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)
 
Analysis of large forecast errors over Iceland
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Arason

 
Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Wind and Temperature Fields in a Mountain Desert Environment
Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Laufenberg

 
An Examination of the Gage-Radar Relationship with respect to Frontal Boundaries
Kevin Brinson, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. R. Legates

 
An evaluation of the land surface-atmosphere interactions over a heterogeneous landscape in numerical mesoscale model
Miliaritiana L. Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, S. Chiao, and J. D. Fuentes

 
A Stochastic Physics Scheme in Representing Model-Related Errors in Global Ensemble Forecast
Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

 
A new way to initialize operational NWP system for tropical cyclone forecast
Zhongfeng Zhang, Met Division, AirTraffic Management Bureau, Beijing, China; and K. H. Lau

 
A Modeling Study of the Dryline in May 22 during IHOP 2002
Sen Chiao, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph and B. B. Demoz

 
A Kalman Filter Approach to Correct Surface Forecast Bias
William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

 
A Fully—Implicit Semi—Lagrangian Hydrostatic Model of Atmospheric Dynamics
Sajal K. Kar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (502.7 kB)
 
P1.85
A few cases of mountain- and lee waves simulated by the WRF Model

 
Examining Severe Weather Events Using Reanalysis Datasets
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and J. D. Ross and P. G. Knight

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)
 
A comparison of prescriptions for using background field diagnostics to adapt covariances to the ambient flow in a 3D Variational assimilation
Manuel De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser, D. F. Parrish, and J. C. Derber

Poster PDF (219.5 kB)
 
The Meteorological Role of the Global Positioning System in NOAA's Integrated Upper-Air Observing System
Seth I. Gutman, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and K. Holub, S. Sahm, T. L. Smith, S. Benjamin, D. Birkenheuer, D. Helms, J. Facundo, L. M. McMillin, J. G. Yoe, and J. Daniels

 
Forecasting Heavy Wintertime Precipitation Events in Southern California (Formerly Paper 9.6)
Katherine M. Bell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and F. J. Pereira, N. W. Junker, R. H. Grumm, and R. E. Hart

Poster PDF (222.8 kB)
 
Understanding the effects of complex terrain on Intermountain cyclogenesis (Formerly Paper 9.8)
Gregory L. West, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and J. Shafer and J. Steenburgh

 
The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS): Citizen's Measuring, Mapping and Learning about Precipitation
Henry Reges, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. C. Cifelli and N. J. Doesken

 
The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) - Providing Value-Added Observations to the Meteorological Community
Patricia A. Miller, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. Barth, L. Benjamin, D. Helms, M. Campbell, J. Facundo, and J. O'Sullivan

Tuesday, 2 August 2005

7:00 AM-8:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Registration Open (Broadcast Meeting Starts)

8:00 AM-8:30 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


6A
Hazardous Weather Tools–Satellite, Radar and Mesoscale Networks of Observing Sensors, including Hydrology
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel

Papers:
  8:00 AM
  8:15 AM
The testing of NSSL multi-sensor applications and data from prototype platforms in NWS forecast operations
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and T. M. Smith and G. J. Stumpf

http://cimms.ou.edu/~smith/wdssii

  8:30 AM
The Impact of Simulated GEMS Observations on Regional Weather Forecasts
Joseph G. Dreher, ENSCO, Inc., Melbourne, FL; and J. Manobianco and M. Adams

  8:45 AM
Reflective storm tops: a satellite method for inferring thunderstorm top microphysical structure
Daniel T. Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and L. Grasso

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/severe/reflective.asp

  9:00 AM
Quality control of gridded national radar reflectivity data
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Liang

  9:15 AM
New radar and severe weather predictive tools
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and D. R. L. Rainey and M. A. Steinberg

  9:30 AM
Use of Surface Mesonet Data in the NCEP Regional Gridpoint Statistical-Interpolation (GSI) System
Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Parrish, W. S. Wu, M. Pondeca, D. Keyser, and G. DiMego

Poster PDF (870.4 kB)
  9:45 AM
Supertyphoon Dale (1996): An impact from the deep tropics to the arctic
Eric P. Kelsey, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

8:00 AM-9:15 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


6B
Tropical Forecasting
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University

Papers:
  8:00 AM
  8:15 AM
The tropical transition of Hurricane Alex (2004): Observations and forecast implications
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery

  8:45 AM
Modeling the initialization and tropical transition Hurricane Alex (2004)
R. McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. A. Davis and L. Bosart

8:40 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


1
Broadcasters Storm the Hill
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Jillene Wahl, WYFF-TV

Papers:
  8:40 AM
1.1
Welcome to Washington D.C
Robert T. Ryan, WRC-TV, Washington, DC; and D. Hill and T. Shutt

  9:00 AM
Broadcast Meteorology–How are we doing in the year 2005?
Mark A. Reynolds, WJHL-TV, Johnson City, TN

  9:20 AM
1.3
  9:40 AM
1.4
The impact of legislation on broadcast meteorologists
Barry Lee Myers, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and D. J. N. Myers and M. A. Steinberg

9:30 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


6C
Hydrometeorology–Flash Floods
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University
CoChair: Ron McTaggart, SUNY

Papers:
  9:45 AM
The Evolution of a Warm Season Severe Eastern Kentucky Flash Flood
Christina Henry, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, C. Smallcomb, M. Mclane, and D. Champlin

  10:00 AM

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


2
Risky Business: Severe Weather
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Jay Prater, KAKE-TV

Papers:
  10:30 AM
2.1
2004 Year in Tornadoes: What A Year It Was!
Daniel W. McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Schaefer

Poster PDF (175.0 kB)
  10:45 AM
2.2
Severe Weather Workshop
Daniel W. McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK


7
The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecast Experiment
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR/DTC
CoChair: Nelson Seaman, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  10:30 AM
7.1
The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecasting Experiment (DWFE)
Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and L. B. Nance, H. Y. Chuang, A. Loughe, M. Demirtas, S. Koch, and R. Gall

http://www.DTCenter.org

  10:45 AM
7.2
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Verification of DWFE
Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, Y. Lin, A. Loughe, R. L. Gall, S. E. Koch, and J. L. Mahoney

http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/users/loughe/projects/wrf/DWFE/

 
7.5
Modeling insights and scientific interactions stimulated by DWFE and DTC

  11:45 AM
7.6
Lessons learned from the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, G. J. DiMego, E. Szoke, J. S. Waldstreicher, P. Manousos, B. N. Meisner, N. Seaman, M. Jackson, R. Graham, A. Edman, and D. Nietfeld

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


8B
Part 1: Reaching the goals outlined in the first "Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process"
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


3
Messy Business: Winter Weather
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Katie Horner, KCTV-5

Papers:
  1:30 PM
3.1
  1:45 PM
3.2
Winter Weather Workshop
Peter Manousos, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD


8A
Mesoscale Observations and Modeling of Winter Weather
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET
CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  1:30 PM
WSI realtime winter precipitation forecasting using WRF
Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson

  1:45 PM
Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type
Matthew S. Wandishin, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. L. Mullen, M. E. Baldwin, and J. V. Cortinas Jr.

  2:00 PM
  2:15 PM
High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations over Iceland for weather forecasting (HRAS)
Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson, H. Ágústsson, E. M. Einarsson, and Ö. Rögnvaldsson

http://www.os.is/~or/halli/hras-ams05.pdf

  2:45 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


4
Putting your entourage together
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: David Bernard, WWL-TV

Papers:
  3:30 PM
4.1
University Partnerships: the Huntsville, Alabama Experiment
Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, B. T. Huffines, and K. Watts

  3:45 PM
4.2
Covering the Storm: Broadcasting from the NWS Storm Prediction Center and other National Centers
Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and K. Tarp

Poster PDF (20.2 kB)
  4:00 PM
4.3
Clustering Severe Storms Across the United States
Joseph Schaefer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean and D. McCarthy

  4:15 PM
4.4

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


9
Terrain Forcing and Mesoscale Aspects of Winter Storms
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET
CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  3:30 PM
9.1
Investigating stability evolution of two winter storms using mobile GAUS data
Larry L. Smith, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. Pettegrew, C. J. Melick, and P. S. Market

http://weather.missouri.edu/ROCS/papers.html

  3:45 PM
9.2
Improving the forecasting of barrier jets along coastal Alaska using remote sensing, modeling, and a SARJET field study
Nathaniel S. Winstead, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD; and B. A. Colle, J. B. Olson, G. S. Young, K. Loescher, and N. A. Bond

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/people/winstead/sarjet.html

  4:00 PM
9.3
High-resolution modeling of the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. banded snowstorm
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and B. A. Colle and D. Keyser

  4:15 PM
9.4
Forecasting Extreme Wintertime Precipitation Events in Northern California
Norman Junker, Retired from NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Grumm, R. Hart, L. F. Bosart, K. M. Bell, and F. J. Pereira

  4:30 PM
9.5
  5:00 PM
9.7
High resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Wolfe, J. Steenburgh, D. Kingsmill, J. A. W. Cox, and J. Shafer

4:30 PM-5:26 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


5
Capital Ideas - Vendor Session
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Papers:
  4:30 PM
5.1
WSI. The disruptive weather company
Chris Goode, Director of Media Sales, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA

  4:37 PM
5.2
Hyper-LOCAL…24X7
Peter Levy, President, Weather Metrics, Inc., Lenexa, KS

  4:44 PM
5.3
ESP:LIVE
Joe DiGiovanni, Weather Central, Inc., Madison, WI

  4:51 PM
5.4
  4:58 PM
5.5
Public Safety Alert (PSA) Program
Bruce Thomas, Chief Meteorologist, Midland Radio Corp, Kansas City, MO

  5:05 PM
5.6
Baron Services
Robert Baron, Baron Services, Inc., Huntsville, AL

  5:12 PM
5.7
The Eco-celli Barometer--the first and only liquid mercury-free barometer
Mike Matvichuk, Allivan Marketing, LLC, Tyngsboro, MA

  5:19 PM
5.8
Enhancements to the Galileo weather system
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and R. Ayres and M. Steinberg

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day


Sessions End for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Formal Opening of Exhibits

Wednesday, 3 August 2005

8:00 AM-8:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


10A
Case Studies
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA

Papers:
  8:00 AM
The role of conveyor belts in organizing processes associated with heavy banded snowfall
James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves

  8:15 AM
Propagating nocturnal convection within a 7-day WRF-model simulation
S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, S. M. Frederick, and J. D. Tuttle

  8:30 AM
NWP with the Weather Research and Forecast model and local data assimilation as a prelude to “Neighborhood Weather”
Patrick T. Welsh, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL; and J. D. Lambert and P. Bogenschutz

  8:45 AM
Investigation of stability characteristics of thundersnow events utilizing the growth rate parameter
Christopher J. Melick, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and L. Smith, B. Pettegrew, and P. Market

http://weather.missouri.edu/ROCS/papers.html

  9:30 AM
A case study of a rare severe thunderstorm with snowfall
Brian Pettegrew, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, R. A. Wolf, and P. J. Roebber

http://weather.missouri.edu/ROCS/papers.html

  9:45 AM
Ice clouds in extratropical cyclones
Florian Weidle, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and H. Wernli

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


10B
Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 2: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Forecasters
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

8:30 AM-8:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


6
Taking the Floor: Meet the Broadcast Board
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Lisa Spencer, WSMV-TV

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Keynote Speaker
Political Science
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Papers:
  9:30 AM
Partnerships for Environmental Literacy, serving the American
D. L. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


1
Exhibits Open

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Joint Session 1
Joint AMS Panel on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )
Moderator: Ron McPherson, AMS
Panelists: Heidi Cullen, The Weather Channel; Bryan Hannegan, White House Council on Environmental Quality; Ed Olenic, NCEP; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Joint Session 2
Environmental Education, Training, and Outreach
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )
Chair: Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  1:45 PM
Weather impacts on watersheds: development of Web-based curriculum for broadcast meteorologists
Joseph Lamos, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. Owens, M. Kelsch, S. Espinoza, and D. Sliter

  2:00 PM
The Numerical Weather Prediction Professional Development Series (NWP PDS)
William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt

  2:30 PM
COMET Marine and Coastal Meteorology Modules
Kevin Fuell, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Wesley and A. J. Bol

http://meted.ucar.edu/topics_marine.php

  2:45 PM
COMET ensemble prediction training
William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD

  3:00 PM

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Exhibits Open

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Joint Session 3
Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 3: Roles of the Public and Private Sector
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


7
IABM Annual General Meeting: Everyone Welcome
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology


Sessions End for the Day


Sessions End for the Day

Thursday, 4 August 2005

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


11A
Ensembles I
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Maria A. Perone, AER
CoChair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET

Papers:
  8:00 AM
The North American Ensemble Forecast System
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, B. Cui, P. L. Houtekamer, L. J. Wilson, R. Verret, R. Hogue, R. Wobus, D. Unger, E. Olenic, B. A. Gordon, and G. Pellerin

  8:15 AM
Recent Upgrades to the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System (SREF) and Future Plans
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth

  8:30 AM
An Evaluation of Short-Term MOS and Short-Term Ensemble MOS Temperature Forecasts
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA; and R. Holmes and J. Villani

  8:45 AM
Evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast United States
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones and J. S. Tongue

  9:00 AM
COAMPS® ocean ensemble forecast
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop

  9:15 AM
  9:30 AM
Wind Energy Forecasting Using Time Lagged Ensembles
Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/FSL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz, S. G. Benjamin, and M. Schwartz

  9:45 AM
An ensemble strategy for road weather applications
Paul Schultz, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


11B
Model Verification
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM

Papers:
  8:00 AM
  8:15 AM
University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble system post-processing and verification
Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

  8:45 AM
Objective verification of high-resolution WRF forecasts during 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore

  9:00 AM
Object-based verification approaches for NWP
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, D. L. Rife, and R. Bullock

  9:15 AM
Comparison of sea–level pressure errors between the U.S. East and West Coasts during the cool seasons of 2000–2005
Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Curley, B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass

 
11B.7
An evaluation of the impacts of grid resolution on the verification of aviation weather forecasts

  9:45 AM
Verification of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over Germany
Marcus Paulat, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and C. Frei, M. Hagen, and H. Wernli

  10:00 AM
Ensemble forecast and verification of low level wind shear by the NCEP SREF system (Formerly Poster P1.64)
Binbin Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu

8:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


8
Something in the Air
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Robin Reed, WDBJ-TV

Papers:
  8:45 AM
8.1
Have NBC’s WeatherPlus channels changed the broadcast weather environment?
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and D. R. L. Rainey and M. A. Steinberg

  9:00 AM
8.2
A New Federal Alert System for Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation
Jason Samenow, U.S. EPA, Washington, DC; and C. S. Long and S. Monroe

  9:15 AM
8.3
A perfect smog storm: review of the particle pollution episode in the Midwest from January 31 to February 6, 2005
Timothy S. Dye, Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA; and A. C. Chan, C. E. Lengyel, R. A. Wayland, and J. E. White

  9:30 AM
8.4
U.S. EPA's AIRNow program: A partnership broadcasters can breathe easy over
Richard A. Wayland, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. E. White, S. A. Jackson, and T. S. Dye

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


9
More Than Hot Air
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Wayne Hart, WEHT-TV

Papers:

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


1
Exhibits Open

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


10
Monumental Ideas
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Greg Fishel, WRAL-TV

Papers:
  10:30 AM
Using satellite imagery to improve on-air forecasts and nowcasts
Daniel T. Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO

  11:00 AM
Put Some Meteors in Your Meteorology
J. Kelly Beatty, Night Sky Magazine, Cambridge, MA

  11:30 AM

12A
Forecasting Challenges in the Urban Enrivonment
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR

Papers:
  10:30 AM
NOAA-EPA’s New National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Transitioning Research to Operations
Paula Davidson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Mathur, J. T. McQueen, R. A. Wayland, N. Seaman, and K. Carey

  10:45 AM
Update to and Recent Performance of the NAM-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast Model at NCEP operations
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and P. C. Lee, M. Tsidulko, G. DiMego, T. Otte, J. Pleim, G. Pouliout, J. Young, D. Kang, P. M. Davidson, and N. Seaman

  11:00 AM
Planetary Boundary Layer height and surface ozone verification in the NOAA/EPA Air Quality Forecast System
Marina Tsidulko, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego, M. Ek, J. McQueen, P. Lee, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. Otte, G. A. Pouliot, D. Wong, J. Young, K. Schere, P. Davidson, N. Seaman, and M. Schenk

  11:15 AM
Aerosol forecast by Eta-CMAQ for the poor air quality episode in early February 2005
Pius Lee, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. McQueen, R. Mathur, M. Tsidulko, S. Kondragunta, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. L. Otte, J. O. Young, G. Pouliot, G. DiMego, K. Schere, P. Davidson, and N. Seaman

  11:30 AM
Perth, Western Australia wildfires of January 2005: Meteorological challenges of fire control and smoke plume predicition in a forest - urban environment
Bruce William Buckley, Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and G. Reader

  11:45 AM
Storm surge modeling for the New York City metropolitan region
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. J. Bowman, R. E. Wilson, R. Flood, D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto, Y. Zheng, R. Hunter, and C. Mirchel


12B
Ensembles II
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET
CoChair: Maria A. Perone, AER

Papers:
  10:30 AM
Treatment of model error through ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation
Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon

  10:45 AM
Statistical Post-processing of Operational & CDC Hindcast Ensembles
Bo Cui, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard

  11:00 AM
  11:15 AM
Hybrid dynamical-analog ensembles for forecasts with late medium-range lead times
Justin G. McLay, National Research Council/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop

  11:30 AM
Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS model
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill

 
12B.6
Regional scale ensemble prediction in the Mediterranean

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Luncheon -- Joint -- Speaker Bob Ryan
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Luncheon–Joint–Speaker Bob Ryan

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


11
Different Languages, Same Weather
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Ronald Hearst, KYTV-3

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Diplomacy 101: Geneva and the WMO
John Toohey-Morales, NBC Telemundo and Climadata, Miami, FL

  1:45 PM
Weathercasts the world over
Tomas Molina, International Association of Broadcast Meteorology, Barcelona, Spain

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


13A
Data Assimilation I
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Assimilation of simulated network radar data of varied storm types using EnSRF for convective storm analyses and forecasts
Elaine S. Godfrey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Tong, M. Xue, and K. Droegemeier

http://weather.ou.edu/~savageau/research/

  2:00 PM
Assimilation of polarimetric radar data using ensemble Kalman filter:Experiments with simulated data
Youngsun Jung, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and J. M. Straka

  2:45 PM
Radar Data Assimilation in a Regional Model of KMA
Duk-Jin Won, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and E. H. Lim and Q. Xiao

Poster PDF (813.3 kB)

13B
Statistical Modeling
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Using geographic information systems to develop gridded model output statistics
Kari L. Sheets, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco and K. K. Hughes

  1:45 PM
Toward a gridded MOS system
J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn

  2:00 PM
Improving probabilistic QPF with reforecasts
Thomas M. Hamill, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


12
Being the station scientist
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Gene Norman, WGCL-TV

Papers:
  2:00 PM
National Weather Service Digital Services: Building a Weather Database Together
Glenn Austin, NOAA/NWS/Office of Climate, Water, & Weather Services, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Horvitz, C. Alex, D. Young, and K. Gurka

  2:15 PM
  2:30 PM

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


1
Exhibits Open

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


14A
Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques I
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA
CoChair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Towards an operational 1km model
Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and N. M. Roberts

  3:45 PM
The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002
Jeremy S. Grams, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr., S. E. Koch, L. S. Wharton, A. Loughe, and E. E. Ebert

  4:00 PM
Potential vorticity as a tool for assessing dynamical impacts of latent heat release in model forecasts
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and K. M. Mahoney

  4:15 PM
Objective methods for monitoring Indian Summer Monsoon using NWP products
Vijapurapu S. Prasad, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Hayashi

  4:30 PM
Grid-Based Removal of Systematic Model Bias
Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed and G. Wedam

  4:45 PM
Forecasting hail size by combining a NWP model with a hail growth model
Gerhard W. Reuter, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and J. C. Brimelow, R. Goodson, and T. W. Krauss

 
14A.7
Climatological aspects of observed and simulated precipitation entities

  5:15 PM
A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Thompson, S. Wang, and C. S. Liou

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


13
More Being the Station Scientist
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Gene Norman, WGCL-TV

Papers:
  4:00 PM
Adding Space Weather to Your Broadcast
Rachel A. Weintraub, NASA, Greenbelt, MD

  4:15 PM
Being the station scientist: Getting your hands dirty
Paul H. Gross, WDIV-TV, Detroit, MI; and K. M. Wilson

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


14B
Data Assimilation II
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Variational assimilation in a propotype limited area model
Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Poster PDF (246.4 kB)
  3:45 PM
Progress in Assimilation of Lightning Data into a Mesoscale NWP Model
Antti T. Pessi, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger and T. Cherubini

  4:00 PM
Evaluation of the operational 4D-Var at the Meteorological Service of Canada
Stephane Laroche, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Gauthier, M. Tanguay, S. Pellerin, and J. Morneau

Poster PDF (111.4 kB)
  4:15 PM
High-resolution coupled land data assimilation in a mesoscale real-time forecast system
Andrea N. Hahmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, F. Chen, K. Manning, and T. Warner

  4:30 PM
Direct Assimilation of Satellite Cloudy Radiances with a 3D-VAR System
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

  4:45 PM
  5:00 PM
Multi-Spectral Classification of Hydrometeors Using AMSU-B Data
Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran

http://ams.confex.com/

Poster PDF (233.2 kB)
  5:15 PM
Qualitative Evaluation of the KMA Regional Model Mixing-Depth Prediction Using Wind-Profiler Signal-to-Noise-Ratio Data
Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. D. Yoo and H. Kawai

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day

5:45 PM-5:45 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day

Friday, 5 August 2005

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 5 August 2005


15A
Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques II
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Observing system simulation experiments at NCEP
Michiko Masutani, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Woollen, R. Treadon, J. F. LeMarshall, S. Lord, Z. Toth, and G. D. Emmitt

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/NWP17

Poster PDF (255.1 kB)
  8:15 AM
High Resolution Global Model of KMA- Preliminary Results
Hae-Jin Lee, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H. Park, Y. S. Lee, H. D. Yoo, and W. J. Lee

Poster PDF (180.8 kB)
  8:30 AM
From global to meso scales with a unified model
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black

  8:45 AM
Enhancements to a Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis Scheme
Eric M. Kemp, Northrop Grumman IT TASC, Chantilly, Virginia; and R. Alliss

  9:00 AM
Flow-Dependent Bias correction to the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting system
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Mcqueen, G. Dimego, and B. Zhou

  9:15 AM
Data Assimilation as Synchronization of Truth and Model: Experiments with the Three-Variable Lorenz System
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Baker, G. Nagpal, E. Kalnay, K. Cordes, M. Huff, E. Okereke, J. Villafae, and G. S. Duane

  9:30 AM
Bred vectors and forecast error in the NASA coupled general circulation model
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, M. Cai, and M. Rienecker

  9:45 AM
A bi-cylindrical "Yin-Yang" global grid geometry applied to the NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model
R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD; and Z. I. Janjic and T. L. Black


15B
Data Assimilation III
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA

Papers:
  8:15 AM
The "Chromatic Hexad" method for adaptive anisotropic covariance synthesis
R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD

  8:30 AM
Real-time ensemble data assimilation at the University of Washington
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

  8:45 AM
Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis
Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn

 
15B.5
Impact of data density in ensemble filters and smoothers

  9:15 AM
Impact of model error and imperfect initial condition perturbations on ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: UNPREDICTABLE SPOTS
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/JunDU_NWP.pdf

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  9:30 AM
A sequential variational analysis approach for mesoscale data assimilation
Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Koch, J. A. McGinley, S. Albers, and N. Wang

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)
  9:45 AM
Adaptive estimation of background and observation error statistics in variational data assimilation
Zhuo Liu, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Buehner and P. Gauthier

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 5 August 2005


14
Do You Want Another Term?? Career Session
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Mark Nelsen, KPTV

Papers:
  9:00 AM
Broadcast Meteorology–How are we doing in the year 2005?
Mark A. Reynolds, WJHL-TV, Johnson City, TN

  9:30 AM
A retiring broadcast pioneer reflects
Harry Volkman, WFLD-TV, Chicago, IL

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Panel Discussion 1
Career Panel from the Broadcast Industry
Location: Diplomat Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
Chair: Veronica Johnson, NBC4

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


16A
Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques III
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  10:30 AM
Fully explicit real-time WRF forecasts of Frances, Ivan and Jeanne (2004)
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and G. J. Holland

  10:45 AM
Ongoing experiments to improve cloud and precipitation forecasts from the WRF NMM modeling system
Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, and H. Y. Chuang

  11:15 AM
High resolution applications of the WRF NMM
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, H. Y. Chuang, and G. DiMego

  11:30 AM
A comparison of WRF forecasts made using differing sources for initial and boundary conditions
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos

http://personal.uncc.edu/betherto/wrf/

  11:45 AM
The hurricane WRF-ARW modeling system: Tests results for the nested automatic hurricane tracking implementation
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Michalakes, D. Gill, W. Skamarock, W. Wang, and J. Cangialosi


16B
Model Parameterization
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Sponsor: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM

Papers:
  10:30 AM
Well-mixed atmospheric boundary layers in the MM5 and WRF models
Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

  10:45 AM
The influence of convective parameterization on model forecasts of an East Coast cyclone
Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

  11:00 AM
The impact of different WRF model physical parameterizations and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall
Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Segal, and S. Koch

  11:15 AM
  11:45 AM
Applicability of grid-size-dependent Convection Parameterization to meso-gamma-scale HIRLAM
Sami J. A. Niemelä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and C. Fortelius

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Conference Ends


Conference Ends

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Lunch Break

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Coffee Break