11A.1 The North American Ensemble Forecast System

Thursday, 4 August 2005: 8:00 AM
Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, B. Cui, P. L. Houtekamer, L. J. Wilson, R. Verret, R. Hogue, R. Wobus, D. Unger, E. Olenic, B. A. Gordon, and G. Pellerin

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) combines state of the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and at the US National Weather Service (NWS). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1-14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either set of tools alone; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries between Mexico and the US and the US and Canada. Since both the development and operational costs of the NAEFS system are shared by the three participants (MSC, NWS, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico, NMSM), each weather service can produce higher quality and more extensive weather forecast guidance than they could working on their own. The NAEFS will also serve as an operational outlet for research related to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project.
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