21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Thursday, 28 July 2005

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 28 July 2005


Coffee Break

Sunday, 31 July 2005

4:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 31 July 2005


Registration Opens

Monday, 1 August 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Mon 1 Aug

7:00 AM-8:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Registration continues through Friday, 5 August

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Session 1
Opening Session
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM
8:00 AM
1.1
Opening Remarks
Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
8:45 AM
1.3
NCEP: NWP in the era of common infrastructures WRF & ESMF
Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and G. DiMego

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Session 2B
Forecasting Tools – Helping the Public Understand the Impact of Daily Weather Forecasts
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel
CoChair: Douglas C. Young, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
2B.1
WSI's Operational Implementation of the WRF model
Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis, S. Marshall, and C. Liu
11:00 AM
2B.3
Assessing forecast uncertainty in the National Digital Forecast Database
Matthew R. Peroutka, NOAA/NWS/Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra and J. L. Wagner
11:30 AM
2B.5
An internet site for professional meteorologists
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and J. T. Candor and M. A. Steinberg

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Session 2A
Applications to Support Weather Forecasts – Nowcasting and Weather Impacts Analyses
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems
10:30 AM
2A.1
Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Kain and M. E. Baldwin
10:45 AM
2A.2
A simple physically based snowfall algorithm
Daniel K. Cobb Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Grand Rapids, MI; and J. S. Waldstreicher
11:00 AM
2A.3
The Meteorological Service of Canada/COMET partnership….an international success story
Peter Lewis, MSC, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia; and G. Toth, B. Muller, and D. Wesley
11:30 AM
2A.5
Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, G. W. Carbin, D. Bright, J. J. Levit, and J. A. Hart
11:45 AM
2A.6
Using The WRF Model To Simulate Flow Through California’s Altamont Pass
John W. Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and G. E. Van Knowe and K. T. Waight

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Session 3
Convection and Precipitation
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
CoChair: Eyad Atallah, McGill University
1:30 PM
3.1
The effects of organized upstream convection on downstream precipitation
Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
1:45 PM
3.2
2:15 PM
3.4
Analysis of a cold-air precipitation event: Observational diagnosis and numerical model sensitivity
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
2:30 PM
3.5
Cool-season regime transition and its impact on precipitation in the Northeast
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, A. Aiyyer, and R. H. Grumm
2:45 PM
3.6
Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Cloud-resolving experiments and multistage error growth dynamics
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and N. Bei, R. Rotunno, and C. Snyder

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Session 4A
Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ.
CoChair: Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M Univ.
3:45 PM
4A.2
A study of coherent tropopause disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric circumpolar vortex
Joseph R. Kravitz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and A. Aiyyer
4:00 PM
4A.3
Hurricane force extratropical cyclones
Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NWS, College Park, MD; and J. M. Von Ahn and G. M. McFadden
4:15 PM
4A.4
4:30 PM
4A.5
The Fiftieth Anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale model simulation of the cold front of 17-18 April 1953
David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Roebber


Session 4B
Operational Model Development
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
CoChair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY
3:30 PM
4B.1
Recent improvements to NRL's mesoscale modeling system
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, J. C. Golaz, R. M. Hodur, T. Holt, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. E. Nachamkin, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang
3:45 PM
4B.2
From the RUC to the Rapid Refresh
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. Dévényi, T. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, S. E. Peckham, K. J. Brundage, S. Weygandt, T. W. Schlatter, J. Brown, and T. L. Smith
4:00 PM
4B.3
Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, D. Rao, J. Derber, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, N. Surgi, and F. Toepfer
4:15 PM
4B.4
The Operational WRF NMM at NCEP
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pyle and H. Y. Chuang
4:30 PM
4B.5
The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System: Final Eta model/analysis changes and preliminary experiments using the WRF-NMM
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, B. S. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, M. Pondeca, M. Pyle, V. C. K. Wong, and W. S. Wu

4:45 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Session 5A
Large- and Synoptic-Scale Processes
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin
CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri
4:45 PM
5A.1
Dust Transport Application forecasting of Middle Eastern, African and Asian Dust Storms
B. H. Barnum, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD; and N. S. Winstead, G. R. Brooks, P. Ginoux, L. Burke, J. Lippman, B. Toth, and I. Gotchel
5:00 PM
5A.2
Climate change and teleconnection patterns: An analysis of temperature and flow regime trends over North America
Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Aiyyer, J. R. Gyakum, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and L. Bosart
5:15 PM
5A.3
A Statistical analysis and synoptic climatology of heat waves over the United States
Scott C. Runyon, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Session 5B
Socioeconomic impacts of forecasts
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL
4:45 PM
5B.1
Expert Mental Modeling of the Weather Forecast System
Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Zia and R. E. Morss
5:00 PM
5B.2
5:15 PM
5B.3

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2005


Poster Session 1
Conference Posters
Location: Regency Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
P1.2
The impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and Lyapunov exponents as a diagnostic
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and I. I. Mokhov, S. Dostoglou, A. Kunz, and J. P. Burkhardt

Handout (214.1 kB)

P1.5
A climatology of strong cold fronts over the western United States
Jason C. Shafer, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

P1.6
Cool-season moderate precipitation events in the Northeastern United States
Keith R. Wagner, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. S. Evans

P1.7
HPC's Excessive Rainfall Potential Outlook
Michael T. Eckert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

P1.8
The flash flood of 12 July 2004 in Burlington County, New Jersey: A case study
Michael J. Gorse, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Handout (436.6 kB)

P1.9
Observed Bow Echo events during the first week of July 2003 concurrent with BAMEX
Nicholas D. Metz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

P1.10
Examining the role of mesoscale features in the structure and evolution of precipitation regions in northeast winter storms
Matthew D. Greenstein, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. J. Nicosia

P1.11
An examination of cool-season damaging wind events in the northern mid-Atlantic region
Raymond Kruzdlo, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Handout (2.2 MB)

P1.14
Dominant factors influencing precipitation efficiency in a continental mid-latitude location
Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, Malaysian Meteorological Service, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Handout (308.8 kB)

P1.15
An observational analysis of an Alabama dryline event on March 19–20, 2003
Robert E. Barbre Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, K. Knupp, W. Mackenzie Jr., P. Gatlin, and D. Phillips

Handout (1.3 MB)

P1.16
Warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone development: Sensitivity to the nature of the incipient vortex
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Handout (372.7 kB)

P1.18
Wet snow icing upstream of mountains
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson

P1.19
Wet snow icing downstream of mountains
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson

P1.20
Warm season extreme quantitative precipitation forecasting for the Burlington, VT region
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah, P. Sisson, M. Kimball, and A. Roberge

Handout (848.8 kB)

P1.21
Validation of a numerical wind forecast by dust image
Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland

P1.22
The textbook foehn
Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland

P1.23
The response filter
Mark Askelson, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and H. Lin, M. Solum, and C. Chambers

Handout (715.1 kB)

P1.25
The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real—time implementation within NWS web—based graphical forecasts
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag

Handout (115.3 kB)

P1.27
Spurious pressure and geopotential height fluctuations in the North American Regional Reanalysis
Gregory L. West, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh

P1.28
Solving for Pressure: Accuracy and Acceleration
Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Handout (176.6 kB)

P1.29
Sloping Steps Eta Discretization
Fedor Mesinger, Univ. Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Jovic

P1.31
Simulating a windstorm upstream of steep mountains
H.álfdáN. Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.33
Sensitivity of Hurricane Charley simulations to changes in the WRF model
Matthew J. Rosier, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. K. Miller

Handout (300.6 kB)

P1.34
Satellite and numerical model data—driven cloud ceiling and visibility estimation
Richard Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, P. H. Herzegh, G. Wiener, J. Cowie, and J. M. Brown

Handout (255.5 kB)

P1.35
Predicting precipitation in a mesoscale mountain range
Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson

P1.36
Numerical prediction of atmospheric icing
Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, Icelandic Metorological OFfice and University of Bergen, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and C. Ubelmann and G. Hafsteinsson

Handout (358.8 kB)

P1.37
Precpitation downstream of a mesoscale mountain ridge
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson

P1.38
Precipitation Verification Studies of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model along the East Coast of the US
Paul A. Kucera, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and C. M. Paulsen and M. Taffe

P1.39
Precipitation extreme downstream of a mountain
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Jónsson

P1.40
Optimally shifted QPF verification scores
Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. G. Brown, K. F. Brill, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (571.9 kB)

P1.42
On the performance, impact, and liabilities of automated precipitation gage screening algorithms
Edward Tollerud, NOAA Research-FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, Y. Lin, and A. Loughe

Handout (859.4 kB)

P1.43
Observations and simulation of a windstorm below breaking gravity waves
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson

P1.44
Nowcasting Applications of the Space—Time Mesoscale Analysis System
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, J. A. McGinley, and S. Albers

Handout (2.6 MB)

P1.45
NOAA's Deployment of the Water Vapor Sensor System (WVSS II)
David Helms, NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Fellows, T. Roberts, K. Schrab, F. Toepfer, B. Ballish, R. Baker, R. J. Fleming, R. May, R. A. Petersen, and W. R. Moninger

P1.46
NCEP SREF Forecasts of three Hurricanes during the 2004 Tropical Season
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA, State College, PA; and J. Du

Handout (549.2 kB)

P1.47
MM5IDL: A Flexible Framework for Post—Processing MM5 Data
Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and Ö. Rögnvaldsson

Handout (579.5 kB)

P1.49
Intermountain cold pool structure, transport, and mixing as revealed by isotopic trace gas and particulate matter concentrations over the Salt Lake Valley
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Pataki, E. Pardyjak, J. Kiran, B. Tyler, R. Peterson, and A. Nair

P1.53
Impacts of model errors and ensemble initiation on mesoscale ensemble-based data assimilation
Zhiyong Meng, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang

P1.54
Hydrological validation of a numerical simulation of a high-precipitation event in the complex terrain of South-Iceland
Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and G. G. Tómasson and H. Ólafsson

P1.55
Gustiness of downslope winds
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson and S. Árnason

P1.56
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation for Rapid Refresh
Dezso Dévényi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES-University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Middlecoff, T. W. Schlatter, and S. S. Weygandt

Handout (80.2 kB)

P1.57
GOES WMSI—progress and developments
Kenneth L. Pryor, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and G. P. Ellrod

Handout (248.9 kB)

P1.58
Forecasting stratospheric clouds
Trausti Jónsson, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.59
Forecasting snow squalls using mesoscale models
Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. Krajewski

P1.60
Forecasting Heat Waves Using Climatic Anomalies
Kevin Lipton, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm, R. Holmes, P. G. Knight, and J. D. Ross

Handout (633.2 kB)

P1.62
A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper—Ocean Depth—Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies (Formerly Paper 6B.5)
Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart and C. A. Clayson

Handout (548.7 kB)

P1.63
P1.65
Ensemble data assimilation and information theory
Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, L. Grasso, A. Y. Hou, S. Zhang, and D. Bikos

Handout (555.7 kB)

P1.66
Development of a new radiation scheme for the global atmospheric NWP model
Shigeki Murai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Yabu and H. Kitagawa

Handout (297.0 kB)

P1.67
Daytime boundary layer structure and flows with interacting lake, valley, and urban circulations
Justin A. W. Cox, NOAA/CIRP, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh and C. D. Whiteman

P1.68
Data Assimilation on the NASA fvGCM with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
Elana Klein, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Li, J. Liu, I. Szunyogh, B. Hunt, E. Kalnay, E. J. Kostelich, and R. Todling

P1.69
Coastal precipitation enhancement due to mesoscale features induced by a landfalling tropical cyclone
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari

P1.70
Cloud-Top Temperatures for Precipitating Winter Clouds
Jay Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and D. M. Schultz and A. Irving

P1.71
Characteristics of water vapor structure of two cold front systems over central U.S.: High—resolution numerical simulations
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Demoz, X. Li, C. Liu, D. Whiteman, D. D. Turner, and R. M. Hoff

Handout (395.6 kB)

P1.72
Bridging high-resolution model and coarse ensemble system: Hybrid Ensembling
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego

P1.73
Assessment of numerical weather forecasts over SW-Iceland
Thordur Arason, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavi­k, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.74
Application of Brasseur's gust prediction method
Hálfdán Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson

P1.75
Combining Phase Error Correction and 3DVAR in Storm—Scale Data Assimilation
Yun Zhou, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. Brewster, M. Hu, and M. Xue

Handout (1.0 MB)

P1.76
Analysis of large forecast errors over Iceland
Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Arason

P1.77
Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Wind and Temperature Fields in a Mountain Desert Environment
Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Laufenberg

P1.78
An Examination of the Gage-Radar Relationship with respect to Frontal Boundaries
Kevin Brinson, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. R. Legates

P1.79
An evaluation of the land surface-atmosphere interactions over a heterogeneous landscape in numerical mesoscale model
Miliaritiana L. Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, S. Chiao, and J. D. Fuentes

P1.80
A Stochastic Physics Scheme in Representing Model-Related Errors in Global Ensemble Forecast
Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

P1.81
A new way to initialize operational NWP system for tropical cyclone forecast
Zhongfeng Zhang, Met Division, AirTraffic Management Bureau, Beijing, China; and K. H. Lau

P1.82
A Modeling Study of the Dryline in May 22 during IHOP 2002
Sen Chiao, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph and B. B. Demoz

P1.83
A Kalman Filter Approach to Correct Surface Forecast Bias
William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

P1.84
A Fully—Implicit Semi—Lagrangian Hydrostatic Model of Atmospheric Dynamics
Sajal K. Kar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Handout (502.7 kB)

P1.87
Examining Severe Weather Events Using Reanalysis Datasets
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and J. D. Ross and P. G. Knight

Handout (2.4 MB)

P1.88
A comparison of prescriptions for using background field diagnostics to adapt covariances to the ambient flow in a 3D Variational assimilation
Manuel De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser, D. F. Parrish, and J. C. Derber

Handout (219.5 kB)

P1.90
The Meteorological Role of the Global Positioning System in NOAA's Integrated Upper-Air Observing System
Seth I. Gutman, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and K. Holub, S. Sahm, T. L. Smith, S. Benjamin, D. Birkenheuer, D. Helms, J. Facundo, L. M. McMillin, J. G. Yoe, and J. Daniels

P1.92
Forecasting Heavy Wintertime Precipitation Events in Southern California (Formerly Paper 9.6)
Katherine M. Bell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and F. J. Pereira, N. W. Junker, R. H. Grumm, and R. E. Hart

Handout (222.8 kB)

P1.93
Understanding the effects of complex terrain on Intermountain cyclogenesis (Formerly Paper 9.8)
Gregory L. West, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and J. Shafer and J. Steenburgh

P1.94
The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS): Citizen's Measuring, Mapping and Learning about Precipitation
Henry Reges, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. C. Cifelli and N. J. Doesken

P1.95
The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) - Providing Value-Added Observations to the Meteorological Community
Patricia A. Miller, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. Barth, L. Benjamin, D. Helms, M. Campbell, J. Facundo, and J. O'Sullivan

Tuesday, 2 August 2005

7:00 AM-8:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Registration Open (Broadcast Meeting Starts)

8:00 AM-8:30 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 6A
Hazardous Weather Tools–Satellite, Radar and Mesoscale Networks of Observing Sensors, including Hydrology
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel
8:00 AM
6A.1
8:15 AM
6A.2
The testing of NSSL multi-sensor applications and data from prototype platforms in NWS forecast operations
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and T. M. Smith and G. J. Stumpf
8:30 AM
6A.3
The Impact of Simulated GEMS Observations on Regional Weather Forecasts
Joseph G. Dreher, ENSCO, Inc., Melbourne, FL; and J. Manobianco and M. Adams
8:45 AM
6A.4
9:00 AM
6A.5
Quality control of gridded national radar reflectivity data
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Liang
9:15 AM
6A.6
New radar and severe weather predictive tools
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and D. R. L. Rainey and M. A. Steinberg
9:30 AM
6A.7
Use of Surface Mesonet Data in the NCEP Regional Gridpoint Statistical-Interpolation (GSI) System
Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Parrish, W. S. Wu, M. Pondeca, D. Keyser, and G. DiMego
9:45 AM
6A.8
Supertyphoon Dale (1996): An impact from the deep tropics to the arctic
Eric P. Kelsey, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

8:00 AM-9:15 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 6B
Tropical Forecasting
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University
8:00 AM
6B.1
8:15 AM
6B.2
The tropical transition of Hurricane Alex (2004): Observations and forecast implications
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery
8:45 AM
6B.4
Modeling the initialization and tropical transition Hurricane Alex (2004)
R. McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. A. Davis and L. Bosart

9:30 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 6C
Hydrometeorology–Flash Floods
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University
CoChair: Ron McTaggart, SUNY
9:45 AM
6C.2
The Evolution of a Warm Season Severe Eastern Kentucky Flash Flood
Christina Henry, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, C. Smallcomb, M. Mclane, and D. Champlin
10:00 AM
6C.3

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 7
The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecast Experiment
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR/DTC
CoChair: Nelson Seaman, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
7.1
The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecasting Experiment (DWFE)
Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and L. B. Nance, H. Y. Chuang, A. Loughe, M. Demirtas, S. Koch, and R. Gall
10:45 AM
7.2
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Verification of DWFE
Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, Y. Lin, A. Loughe, R. L. Gall, S. E. Koch, and J. L. Mahoney
11:45 AM
7.6
Lessons learned from the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, G. J. DiMego, E. Szoke, J. S. Waldstreicher, P. Manousos, B. N. Meisner, N. Seaman, M. Jackson, R. Graham, A. Edman, and D. Nietfeld

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 8B
Part 1: Reaching the goals outlined in the first "Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process"
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 8A
Mesoscale Observations and Modeling of Winter Weather
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET
CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS
1:30 PM
8A.1
WSI realtime winter precipitation forecasting using WRF
Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson
1:45 PM
8A.2
Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type
Matthew S. Wandishin, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. L. Mullen, M. E. Baldwin, and J. V. Cortinas Jr.
2:00 PM
8A.3
2:15 PM
8A.4
High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations over Iceland for weather forecasting (HRAS)
Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson, H. Ágústsson, E. M. Einarsson, and Ö. Rögnvaldsson
2:45 PM
8A.6

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Session 9
Terrain Forcing and Mesoscale Aspects of Winter Storms
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET
CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS
3:30 PM
9.1
Investigating stability evolution of two winter storms using mobile GAUS data
Larry L. Smith, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. Pettegrew, C. J. Melick, and P. S. Market
3:45 PM
9.2
Improving the forecasting of barrier jets along coastal Alaska using remote sensing, modeling, and a SARJET field study
Nathaniel S. Winstead, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD; and B. A. Colle, J. B. Olson, G. S. Young, K. Loescher, and N. A. Bond
4:00 PM
9.3
High-resolution modeling of the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. banded snowstorm
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and B. A. Colle and D. Keyser
4:15 PM
9.4
Forecasting Extreme Wintertime Precipitation Events in Northern California
Norman Junker, Retired from NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Grumm, R. Hart, L. F. Bosart, K. M. Bell, and F. J. Pereira
4:30 PM
9.5
Does increasing the resolution of numerical forecasts improve forecast accuracy over fine-scale Intermountain orography?
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. A. Hart and D. J. Onton
5:00 PM
9.7
High resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Wolfe, J. Steenburgh, D. Kingsmill, J. A. W. Cox, and J. Shafer

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2005


Formal Opening of Exhibits

Wednesday, 3 August 2005

8:00 AM-8:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Session 10A
Case Studies
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA
8:00 AM
10A.1
The role of conveyor belts in organizing processes associated with heavy banded snowfall
James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves
8:15 AM
10A.2
Propagating nocturnal convection within a 7-day WRF-model simulation
S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, S. M. Frederick, and J. D. Tuttle
8:30 AM
10A.3
NWP with the Weather Research and Forecast model and local data assimilation as a prelude to “Neighborhood Weather”
Patrick T. Welsh, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL; and J. D. Lambert and P. Bogenschutz
8:45 AM
10A.4
Investigation of stability characteristics of thundersnow events utilizing the growth rate parameter
Christopher J. Melick, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and L. Smith, B. Pettegrew, and P. Market
9:30 AM
10A.7
A case study of a rare severe thunderstorm with snowfall
Brian Pettegrew, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, R. A. Wolf, and P. J. Roebber
9:45 AM
10A.8
Ice clouds in extratropical cyclones
Florian Weidle, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and H. Wernli

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Session 10B
Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 2: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Forecasters
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


1
Exhibits Open

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Joint Session 1
Joint AMS Panel on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )
Moderator: Ron McPherson, AMS
Panelists: Heidi Cullen, The Weather Channel; Bryan Hannegan, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Ed Olenic, NCEP; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Joint Session 2
Environmental Education, Training, and Outreach
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )
Chair: Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET
1:30 PM
J2.1
1:45 PM
J2.2
Weather impacts on watersheds: development of Web-based curriculum for broadcast meteorologists
Joseph Lamos, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. Owens, M. Kelsch, S. Espinoza, and D. Sliter
2:30 PM
J2.5
COMET Marine and Coastal Meteorology Modules
Kevin Fuell, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Wesley and A. J. Bol
3:00 PM
J2.7

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Exhibits Open

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Joint Session 3
Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 3: Roles of the Public and Private Sector
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology )
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day

Thursday, 4 August 2005

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Session 11A
Ensembles I
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Maria A. Perone, AER
CoChair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET
8:00 AM
11A.1
The North American Ensemble Forecast System
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, B. Cui, P. L. Houtekamer, L. J. Wilson, R. Verret, R. Hogue, R. Wobus, D. Unger, E. Olenic, B. A. Gordon, and G. Pellerin
8:15 AM
11A.2
Recent Upgrades to the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System (SREF) and Future Plans
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth
8:30 AM
11A.3
8:45 AM
11A.4
Evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast United States
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones and J. S. Tongue
9:00 AM
11A.5
COAMPS® ocean ensemble forecast
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop
9:30 AM
11A.7
Wind Energy Forecasting Using Time Lagged Ensembles
Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/FSL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz, S. G. Benjamin, and M. Schwartz
9:45 AM
11A.8
An ensemble strategy for road weather applications
Paul Schultz, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Session 11B
Model Verification
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM
8:00 AM
11B.1
8:15 AM
11B.2
University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble system post-processing and verification
Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
8:45 AM
11B.4
Objective verification of high-resolution WRF forecasts during 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore
9:00 AM
11B.5
Object-based verification approaches for NWP
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, D. L. Rife, and R. Bullock
9:15 AM
11B.6
Comparison of sea–level pressure errors between the U.S. East and West Coasts during the cool seasons of 2000–2005
Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Curley, B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass
9:45 AM
11B.8
Verification of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over Germany
Marcus Paulat, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and C. Frei, M. Hagen, and H. Wernli
10:00 AM
11B.7A
Ensemble forecast and verification of low level wind shear by the NCEP SREF system (Formerly Poster P1.64)
Binbin Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


1
Exhibits Open

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Session 12A
Forecasting Challenges in the Urban Enrivonment
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR
10:30 AM
12A.1
NOAA-EPA’s New National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Transitioning Research to Operations
Paula Davidson, NOAA/NWS/STI, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Mathur, J. T. McQueen, R. A. Wayland, N. Seaman, and K. Carey
10:45 AM
12A.2
Update to and Recent Performance of the NAM-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast Model at NCEP operations
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and P. C. Lee, M. Tsidulko, G. DiMego, T. Otte, J. Pleim, G. Pouliout, J. Young, D. Kang, P. M. Davidson, and N. Seaman
11:00 AM
12A.3
Planetary Boundary Layer height and surface ozone verification in the NOAA/EPA Air Quality Forecast System
Marina Tsidulko, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego, M. Ek, J. McQueen, P. Lee, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. Otte, G. A. Pouliot, D. Wong, J. Young, K. Schere, P. Davidson, N. Seaman, and M. Schenk
11:15 AM
12A.4
Aerosol forecast by Eta-CMAQ for the poor air quality episode in early February 2005
Pius Lee, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. McQueen, R. Mathur, M. Tsidulko, S. Kondragunta, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. L. Otte, J. O. Young, G. Pouliot, G. DiMego, K. Schere, P. Davidson, and N. Seaman
11:30 AM
12A.5
Perth, Western Australia wildfires of January 2005: Meteorological challenges of fire control and smoke plume predicition in a forest - urban environment
Bruce William Buckley, Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and G. Reader
11:45 AM
12A.6
Storm surge modeling for the New York City metropolitan region
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. J. Bowman, R. E. Wilson, R. Flood, D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto, Y. Zheng, R. Hunter, and C. Mirchel

Session 12B
Ensembles II
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET
CoChair: Maria A. Perone, AER
10:30 AM
12B.1
Treatment of model error through ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation
Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon
10:45 AM
12B.2
Statistical Post-processing of Operational & CDC Hindcast Ensembles
Bo Cui, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard
11:00 AM
12B.3
Probabilistic evaluation of MCV dynamics and predictability through ensemble forecasting
Dan Hawblitzel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang
11:15 AM
12B.4
Hybrid dynamical-analog ensembles for forecasts with late medium-range lead times
Justin G. McLay, National Research Council/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop
11:30 AM
12B.5
Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS model
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Luncheon–Joint–Speaker Bob Ryan

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Session 13A
Data Assimilation I
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC
1:30 PM
13A.1
2:00 PM
13A.3
2:45 PM
13A.6
Radar Data Assimilation in a Regional Model of KMA
Duk-Jin Won, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. H. Lim and Q. Xiao

Session 13B
Statistical Modeling
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET
1:30 PM
13B.1
Using geographic information systems to develop gridded model output statistics
Kari L. Sheets, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco and K. K. Hughes
1:45 PM
13B.2
Toward a gridded MOS system
J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn
2:00 PM
13B.3
Improving probabilistic QPF with reforecasts
Thomas M. Hamill, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


1
Exhibits Open

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Session 14A
Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques I
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA
CoChair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
3:30 PM
14A.1
Towards an operational 1km model
Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and N. M. Roberts
3:45 PM
14A.2
The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002
Jeremy S. Grams, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr., S. E. Koch, L. S. Wharton, A. Loughe, and E. E. Ebert
4:00 PM
14A.3
Potential vorticity as a tool for assessing dynamical impacts of latent heat release in model forecasts
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and K. M. Mahoney
4:15 PM
14A.4
Objective methods for monitoring Indian Summer Monsoon using NWP products
Vijapurapu S. Prasad, NCMRWF, NOIDA, India; and T. Hayashi

4:30 PM
14A.5
Grid-Based Removal of Systematic Model Bias
Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed and G. Wedam
4:45 PM
14A.6
Forecasting hail size by combining a NWP model with a hail growth model
Gerhard W. Reuter, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and J. C. Brimelow, R. Goodson, and T. W. Krauss
5:15 PM
14A.8
A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Thompson, S. Wang, and C. S. Liou

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Session 14B
Data Assimilation II
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John V. Cortinas Jr., NOAA/OAR
3:30 PM
14B.1
Variational assimilation in a propotype limited area model
Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France
3:45 PM
14B.2
Progress in Assimilation of Lightning Data into a Mesoscale NWP Model
Antti T. Pessi, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger and T. Cherubini
4:00 PM
14B.3
Evaluation of the operational 4D-Var at the Meteorological Service of Canada
Stephane Laroche, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Gauthier, M. Tanguay, S. Pellerin, and J. Morneau
4:15 PM
14B.4
High-resolution coupled land data assimilation in a mesoscale real-time forecast system
Andrea N. Hahmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, F. Chen, K. Manning, and T. Warner
4:30 PM
14B.5
Direct Assimilation of Satellite Cloudy Radiances with a 3D-VAR System
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

5:00 PM
14B.7
Multi-Spectral Classification of Hydrometeors Using AMSU-B Data
Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
5:15 PM
14B.8

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2005


Sessions End for the Day

Friday, 5 August 2005

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Session 15A
Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques II
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC
8:00 AM
15A.1
Observing system simulation experiments at NCEP
Michiko Masutani, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Woollen, R. Treadon, J. F. LeMarshall, S. Lord, Z. Toth, and G. D. Emmitt
8:15 AM
15A.2
High Resolution Global Model of KMA- Preliminary Results
Hae-Jin Lee, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Park, Y. S. Lee, H. D. Yoo, and W. J. Lee
8:30 AM
15A.3
From global to meso scales with a unified model
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black
8:45 AM
15A.4
Enhancements to a Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis Scheme
Eric M. Kemp, Northrop Grumman IT TASC, Chantilly, Virginia; and R. Alliss
9:00 AM
15A.5
Flow-Dependent Bias correction to the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting system
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. Dimego, and B. Zhou

9:15 AM
15A.6
Data Assimilation as Synchronization of Truth and Model: Experiments with the Three-Variable Lorenz System
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Baker, G. Nagpal, E. Kalnay, K. Cordes, M. Huff, E. Okereke, J. Villafae, and G. S. Duane
9:30 AM
15A.7
Bred vectors and forecast error in the NASA coupled general circulation model
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, M. Cai, and M. Rienecker
9:45 AM
15A.8
A bi-cylindrical "Yin-Yang" global grid geometry applied to the NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model
R. James Purser, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. I. Janjic and T. L. Black


Session 15B
Data Assimilation III
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA
8:00 AM
15B.1
8:30 AM
15B.3
Real-time ensemble data assimilation at the University of Washington
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

8:45 AM
15B.4
Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis
Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn

9:30 AM
15B.7
A sequential variational analysis approach for mesoscale data assimilation
Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Koch, J. A. McGinley, S. Albers, and N. Wang
9:45 AM
15B.8
Adaptive estimation of background and observation error statistics in variational data assimilation
Zhuo Liu, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Buehner and P. Gauthier

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Session 16A
Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques III
Location: Empire Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
16A.1
Fully explicit real-time WRF forecasts of Frances, Ivan and Jeanne (2004)
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and G. J. Holland
10:45 AM
16A.2
11:15 AM
16A.4
High resolution applications of the WRF NMM
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, H. Y. Chuang, and G. DiMego
11:30 AM
16A.5
A comparison of WRF forecasts made using differing sources for initial and boundary conditions
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos
11:45 AM
16A.6
The hurricane WRF-ARW modeling system: Tests results for the nested automatic hurricane tracking implementation
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Michalakes, D. Gill, W. Skamarock, W. Wang, and J. Cangialosi


Session 16B
Model Parameterization
Location: Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM
10:30 AM
16B.1
Well-mixed atmospheric boundary layers in the MM5 and WRF models
Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA
10:45 AM
16B.2
The influence of convective parameterization on model forecasts of an East Coast cyclone
Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
11:00 AM
16B.3
The impact of different WRF model physical parameterizations and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall
Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Segal, and S. Koch
11:15 AM
16B.4
11:30 AM
16B.5
11:45 AM
16B.6

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Conference Ends

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 5 August 2005


Coffee Break