Session 12B Ensembles II

Thursday, 4 August 2005: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
Ambassador Ballroom (Omni Shoreham Hotel Washington D.C.)
Host: 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
William Bua, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
Maria A. Perone, AER, Lexington, MA

10:30 AM
Treatment of model error through ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation
Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon
10:45 AM
Statistical Post-processing of Operational & CDC Hindcast Ensembles
Bo Cui, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard
11:00 AM
Probabilistic evaluation of MCV dynamics and predictability through ensemble forecasting
Dan Hawblitzel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang
11:15 AM
Hybrid dynamical-analog ensembles for forecasts with late medium-range lead times
Justin G. McLay, National Research Council/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop
11:30 AM
Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS model
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill
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