Regional scale ensemble prediction in the Mediterranean

With the aim to evaluate the uncertainty of model forecasts at regional scale, an ensemble prediction system is applied at the National Observatory of Athens since December 2004. The system is based on the use of BOLAM hydrostatic model that is running operationally using as initial and boundary conditions the 10 members of the ensemble system of the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (GFS/NCEP).

The domain covered by BOLAM model comprises the Mediterranean Sea and a major part of Central and Southern Europe.The first results of the regional ensembles for high impact weather (strong winds, high precipitation) over the area are evaluated.