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This paper will focus on the products produced from the database including graphical displays of COOP MOS, and the production of short-term ensemble (STE) MOS and verifications of these products. The current STE-MOS is produced using weights from the three short-term MOS products including the GFE-MOS, NGM-MOS and the Eta-MOS. The NGM-MOS product, though not as skillful, is used in the generation of the ensemble product, but is given a lesser weight based on its lower skill. The general weighting is based on verification and varies by season. Through most of the year the GFE-MOS weight is 3, the ETA-MOS weight is 2 and the NGM-MOS weight is 1. Thus the GFE-MOS is weighted 3 to 1 over the NGM-MOS. Due to improved verification scores, during the winter, the ETA-MOS weights are increased to 3.
The STE-MOS product demonstrates the utility of relational databases in the production and verification of ensemble MOS products. Verification of the ensemble MOS product relative to the individual GFE-MOS, NGM-MOS, and ETA-MOS will be presented. The preliminary results, based on the verification of MOS sites in Pennsylvania, suggest the ensemble (STE-MOS) product is slightly more accurate than the GFE- and ETA- based MOS products.
The database application also facilitates the storing and verification of the COOP MOS. The COOP MOS is then made available on a grid for display purposes. Comparisons of gridded STE-MOS to COOP-MOS will be presented
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